{"title":"Determinants of market-assessed sovereign default risk: Macroeconomic fundamentals or global shocks?","authors":"Dooyeon Cho, Dong-Eun Rhee","doi":"10.1111/infi.12440","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper investigates the macroeconomic fundamentals that international investors consider crucial when assessing a country's default risk. Using panel data for 41 countries over the period 2002–2019, we find that the macroeconomic determinants of a sovereign credit default swap (CDS) are heterogeneous across developed and developing economies after controlling for potential endogeneity. While international investors consider government budget balance and inflation as crucial elements in the evaluation of the CDS of developed economies, more stress is placed on economic growth and foreign reserves in the assessment of the creditworthiness of developing economies. Furthermore, we document that better institutional quality reduces the sovereign default risk in both developed and developing economies. However, global shocks appear to have a strong impact in developing economies. The results remain robust to various specifications.</p>","PeriodicalId":1,"journal":{"name":"Accounts of Chemical Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":16.4000,"publicationDate":"2023-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Accounts of Chemical Research","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/infi.12440","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"化学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This paper investigates the macroeconomic fundamentals that international investors consider crucial when assessing a country's default risk. Using panel data for 41 countries over the period 2002–2019, we find that the macroeconomic determinants of a sovereign credit default swap (CDS) are heterogeneous across developed and developing economies after controlling for potential endogeneity. While international investors consider government budget balance and inflation as crucial elements in the evaluation of the CDS of developed economies, more stress is placed on economic growth and foreign reserves in the assessment of the creditworthiness of developing economies. Furthermore, we document that better institutional quality reduces the sovereign default risk in both developed and developing economies. However, global shocks appear to have a strong impact in developing economies. The results remain robust to various specifications.
期刊介绍：
Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance.
Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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