Earthquake Science最新文献

{"title":"Mechanisms to explain soil liquefaction triggering, development, and persistence during an earthquake","authors":"Fernando Teixeira","doi":"10.1016/j.eqs.2024.07.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eqs.2024.07.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mechanisms have been proposed to explain the triggering, development, and persistence of soil liquefaction. The mechanism explaining the horizontal failure plane (triggering) and its depth below the phreatic surface is governed by the flux properties and effective stress at that plane. At the failure plane, the pore water pressure was higher than the effective stress, and the volume change was the highest. The pore water pressure is a function of the soil profile features (particularly the phreatic zone width) and bedrock motion (horizontal acceleration). The volume change at the failure plane is a function of the intrinsic permeability of the soil and bedrock displacement. The failure plane was predicted to occur during the oscillation with the highest amplitude, disregarding further bedrock motion, which was consistent with low seismic energy densities. Two mechanisms were proposed to explain the persistence of soil liquefaction. The first is the existence of low-permeability layers in the depth range in which the failure planes are predicted to occur. The other allows for the persistence and development of soil liquefaction; it is consistent with homogeneous soils and requires water inflow from bedrock water springs. The latter explains many of the features of soil liquefaction observed during earthquakes, namely, surficial effects, “instant” liquefaction, and the occurrence of short- and long-term changes in the level of the phreatic surfaces. This model (hypothesis), the relationship between the flux characteristics and loss of soil shear strength, provides self-consistent constraints on the depth below the phreatic surfaces where the failure planes are observed (expected to occur). It requires further experimental and observational evidence. Similar reasoning can be used to explain other saturated soil phenomena.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46333,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Science","volume":"37 6","pages":"Pages 558-573"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142322419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessment of earthquake location uncertainties for the design of local seismic networks","authors":"Antonio Fuggi ,&nbsp;Simone Re ,&nbsp;Giorgio Tango ,&nbsp;Sergio Del Gaudio ,&nbsp;Alessandro Brovelli ,&nbsp;Giorgio Cassiani","doi":"10.1016/j.eqs.2024.06.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eqs.2024.06.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The ability to estimate earthquake source locations, along with the appraisal of relevant uncertainties, is paramount in monitoring both natural and human-induced micro-seismicity. For this purpose, a monitoring network must be designed to minimize the location errors introduced by geometrically unbalanced networks. In this study, we first review different sources of errors relevant to the localization of seismic events, how they propagate through localization algorithms, and their impact on outcomes. We then propose a quantitative method, based on a Monte Carlo approach, to estimate the uncertainty in earthquake locations that is suited to the design, optimization, and assessment of the performance of a local seismic monitoring network. To illustrate the performance of the proposed approach, we analyzed the distribution of the localization uncertainties and their related dispersion for a highly dense grid of theoretical hypocenters in both the horizontal and vertical directions using an actual monitoring network layout. The results expand, quantitatively, the qualitative indications derived from purely geometrical parameters (azimuthal gap (AG)) and classical detectability maps. The proposed method enables the systematic design, optimization, and evaluation of local seismic monitoring networks, enhancing monitoring accuracy in areas proximal to hydrocarbon production, geothermal fields, underground natural gas storage, and other subsurface activities. This approach aids in the accurate estimation of earthquake source locations and their associated uncertainties, which are crucial for assessing and mitigating seismic risks, thereby enabling the implementation of proactive measures to minimize potential hazards. From an operational perspective, reliably estimating location accuracy is crucial for evaluating the position of seismogenic sources and assessing possible links between well activities and the onset of seismicity.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46333,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Science","volume":"37 5","pages":"Pages 415-433"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674451924000661/pdfft?md5=fdf5e5b23a50a9c78a7e5af61bce7542&pid=1-s2.0-S1674451924000661-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141993508","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Science and reflections: With some thoughts to young applied scientists and engineers","authors":"Robert L. Nowack","doi":"10.1016/j.eqs.2024.06.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eqs.2024.06.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>I provide some science and reflections from my experiences working in geophysics, along with connections to computational and data sciences, including recent developments in machine learning. I highlight several individuals and groups who have influenced me, both through direct collaborations as well as from ideas and insights that I have learned from. While my reflections are rooted in geophysics, they should also be relevant to other computational scientific and engineering fields. I also provide some thoughts for young, applied scientists and engineers.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46333,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Science","volume":"37 5","pages":"Pages 459-493"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674451924000648/pdfft?md5=aa12c644eeb75b5e31e4175a03b05aaa&pid=1-s2.0-S1674451924000648-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141993511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Critical analysis of the ULF power depression as a possible Tohoku earthquake precursor","authors":"Vyacheslav A. Pilipenko ,&nbsp;Valery A. Martines-Bedenko ,&nbsp;Akimasa Yoshikawa ,&nbsp;Kirolosse M. Girgis","doi":"10.1016/j.eqs.2024.06.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eqs.2024.06.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Among electromagnetic methods of short-term earthquake prediction, an approach is being actively developed based on the phenomenon of magnetic ultra-low-frequency (ULF) power depression occurring a few days before an earthquake. In particular, a nighttime geomagnetic power depression in the band 0.03–0.05 Hz was observed approximately 5 days before the catastrophic Tohoku 2011 earthquake. To verify the reliability of this method, we performed an extended analysis using data from magnetometer arrays JMA, MAGDAS, PWING, and INTERMAGNET. The selected stations included sites close to the epicenter (&lt;300 km) and remote points (∼10000 km). The band-integrated spectral power of nighttime magnetic noise decreased significantly from March 6–9, several days before the earthquake. However, such variations occur simultaneously not only at nearby stations but also at distant stations. During this event, the ULF power depression was caused by low global geomagnetic activity, as evidenced by the planetary index SME. Thus, the depression of geomagnetic ULF noise cannot be considered a reliable short-term precursor.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46333,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Science","volume":"37 5","pages":"Pages 407-414"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674451924000636/pdfft?md5=e661963ec366dc9bd3268ca73c472ff4&pid=1-s2.0-S1674451924000636-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141992819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A new calibration method for radon detector in seismic systems","authors":"Hongwei Ren ,&nbsp;Yaowei Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.eqs.2024.06.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eqs.2024.06.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Radon observation is an important measurement item of seismic precursor network observation. The radon detector calibration is a key technical link for ensuring radon observation accuracy. At present, the radon detector calibration in seismic systems in China is faced with a series of bottleneck problems, such as aging and scrap, acquisition difficulties, high supervision costs, and transportation limitations of radon sources. As a result, a large number of radon detectors cannot be accurately calibrated regularly, seriously affecting the accuracy and reliability of radon observation data in China. To solve this problem, a new calibration method for radon detectors was established. The advantage of this method is that the dangerous radioactive substance, i.e., the radon source, can be avoided, but only “standard instruments” and water samples with certain dissolved radon concentrations can be used to realize radon detector calibration. This method avoids the risk of radioactive leakage and solves the current widespread difficulties and bottleneck of radon detector calibration in seismic systems in China. The comparison experiment with the traditional calibration method shows that the error of the calibration coefficient obtained by the new method is less than 5% compared with that by the traditional method, which meets the requirements of seismic observation systems, confirming the reliability of the new method. This new method can completely replace the traditional calibration method of using a radon source in seismic systems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46333,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Science","volume":"37 5","pages":"Pages 445-458"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674451924000612/pdfft?md5=57db9f4e2947e9ef8657cdc44b9359c2&pid=1-s2.0-S1674451924000612-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141993510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Potential of the Arkhangelsk seismic network for European Arctic monitoring","authors":"Galina Antonovskaya ,&nbsp;Yana Konechnaya ,&nbsp;Ekaterina Morozova ,&nbsp;Yana Mikhailova ,&nbsp;Eugenia Shakhova","doi":"10.1016/j.eqs.2024.06.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eqs.2024.06.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Arkhangelsk Seismic Network (ASN) of the N. Laverov Federal Center for Integrated Arctic Research of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, founded in 2003, includes 10 permanent seismic stations located on the coasts of the White, Barents, and Kara Seas and on the Arctic archipelagos of Novaya Zemlya, Franz Josef Land, and Severnaya Zemlya. The network is registered with the International Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks and the International Seismological Center. We used not only ASN data to process earthquakes but also the waveforms of various international seismic stations. The 13,000 seismic events were registered using ASN data for 2012–2022, and for 5,500 of them, we determined the parameters of the earthquake epicenters from the European Arctic. The spatial distribution of epicenters shows that the ASN monitors not only the main seismically active zones but also weak seismicity on the shelf of the Barents and Kara Seas. The representative magnitude of ASN was <em>M</em>_{L, rep}=3.5. The level of microseismic noise has seasonal variations that affect the registration capabilities of each station included in the ASN and the overall sensitivity of the network as a whole. In summer, the sensitivity of the ASN decreased owing to the increasing microseismic and ambient noises, whereas in winter, the sensitivity of the ASN increased significantly because of the decrease.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46333,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Science","volume":"37 5","pages":"Pages 434-444"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S167445192400065X/pdfft?md5=7bc501fa82f24ee4474c8dd386253a42&pid=1-s2.0-S167445192400065X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141993509","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"","authors":"Zengping Wen ,&nbsp;Guoxin Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.eqs.2024.06.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eqs.2024.06.010","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46333,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Science","volume":"37 5","pages":"Pages 494-497"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674451924000703/pdfft?md5=9c9fd089acd9d20e3c6454082166b3eb&pid=1-s2.0-S1674451924000703-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141993512","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evolution and spatiotemporal analysis of earthquake public opinion based on social media data","authors":"Chenyu Wang ,&nbsp;Yanjun Ye ,&nbsp;Yingqiao Qiu ,&nbsp;Chen Li ,&nbsp;Meiqing Du","doi":"10.1016/j.eqs.2024.06.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eqs.2024.06.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>As critical conduits for the dissemination of online public opinion, social media platforms offer a timely and effective means for managing emergencies during major disasters, such as earthquakes. This study focuses on the analysis of online public opinions following the Maduo <em>M</em>7.4 earthquake in Qinghai Province and the Yangbi <em>M</em>6.4 earthquake in Yunnan Province. By collecting, cleaning, and organizing post-earthquake Sina Weibo (short for Weibo) data, we employed the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model to extract information pertinent to public opinion on these earthquakes. This analysis included a comparison of the nature and temporal evolution of online public opinions related to both events. An emotion analysis, utilizing an emotion dictionary, categorized the emotional content of post-earthquake Weibo posts, facilitating a comparative study of the characteristics and temporal trends of online public emotions following the earthquakes. The findings were visualized using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. The analysis revealed certain commonalities in online public opinion following both earthquakes. Notably, the peak of online engagement occurred within the first 24 hours post-earthquake, with a rapid decline observed between 24 to 48 hours thereafter. The variation in popularity of online public opinion was linked to aftershock occurrences. Adjusted for population factors, online engagement in areas surrounding the earthquake sites and in Sichuan Province was significantly high. Initially dominated by feelings of “fear” and “surprise”, the public sentiment shifted towards a more positive outlook with the onset of rescue operations. However, distinctions in the online public response to each earthquake were also noted. Following the Yangbi earthquake, Yunnan Province reported the highest number of Weibo posts nationwide; in contrast, Qinghai Province ranked third post-Maduo earthquake, attributable to its smaller population size and extensive damage to communication infrastructure. This research offers a methodological approach for the analysis of online public opinion related to earthquakes, providing insights for the enhancement of post-disaster emergency management and public mental health support.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46333,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Science","volume":"37 5","pages":"Pages 387-406"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674451924000624/pdfft?md5=586a60d4590cfce74bfcfe257d2fe5aa&pid=1-s2.0-S1674451924000624-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141992616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"ChatGPT in transforming communication in seismic engineering: Case studies, implications, key challenges and future directions","authors":"Partha Pratim Ray","doi":"10.1016/j.eqs.2024.04.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eqs.2024.04.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Seismic engineering, a critical field with significant societal implications, often presents communication challenges due to the complexity of its concepts. This paper explores the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI), specifically OpenAI’s ChatGPT, in bridging these communication gaps. The study delves into how AI can simplify intricate seismic engineering terminologies and concepts, fostering enhanced understanding among students, professionals, and policymakers. It also presents several intuitive case studies to demonstrate the practical application of ChatGPT in seismic engineering. Further, the study contemplates the potential implications of AI, highlighting its potential to transform decision-making processes, augment education, and increase public engagement. While acknowledging the promising future of AI in seismic engineering, the study also considers the inherent challenges and limitations, including data privacy and potential oversimplification of content. It advocates for the collaborative efforts of AI researchers and seismic experts in overcoming these obstacles and enhancing the utility of AI in the field. This exploration provides an insightful perspective on the future of seismic engineering, which could be closely intertwined with the evolution of AI.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46333,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Science","volume":"37 4","pages":"Pages 352-367"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674451924000466/pdfft?md5=2d63b53c3aa31c5705c951ddee708497&pid=1-s2.0-S1674451924000466-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141607537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The forecasting efficiency under different selected regions by Pattern Informatics Method and seismic potential estimation in the North-South Seismic Zone","authors":"Weixi Tian ,&nbsp;Yongxian Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.eqs.2024.04.006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eqs.2024.04.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In 2022, four earthquakes with <em>M</em>_S≥6.0 including the Menyuan <em>M</em>_S6.9 and Luding <em>M</em>_S6.8 earthquakes occurred in the North-South Seismic Zone (NSSZ), which demonstrated high and strong seismicity. Pattern Informatics (PI) method, as an effective long and medium term earthquake forecasting method, has been applied to the strong earthquake forecasting in Chinese mainland and results have shown the positive performance. The earthquake catalog with magnitude above <em>M</em>_S3.0 since 1970 provided by China Earthquake Networks Center was employed in this study and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) method was applied to test the forecasting efficiency of the PI method in each selected region related to the North-South Seismic Zone systematically. Based on this, we selected the area with the best ROC testing result and analyzed the evolution process of the PI hotspot map reflecting the small seismic activity pattern prior to the Menyuan <em>M</em>_S6.9 and Luding <em>M</em>_S6.8 earthquakes. A “forward” forecast for the area was carried out to assess seismic risk. The study shows the following. 1) PI forecasting has higher forecasting efficiency in the selected study region where the difference of seismicity in any place of the region is smaller. 2) In areas with smaller differences of seismicity, the activity pattern of small earthquakes prior to the Menyuan <em>M</em>_S6.9 and Luding <em>M</em>_S6.8 earthquakes can be obtained by analyzing the spatio-temporal evolution process of the PI hotspot map. 3) The hotspot evolution in and around the southern Tazang fault in the study area is similar to that prior to the strong earthquakes, which suggests the possible seismic hazard in the future. This study could provide some ideas to the seismic hazard assessment in other regions with high seismicity, such as Japan, California, Turkey, and Indonesia.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46333,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Science","volume":"37 4","pages":"Pages 368-382"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674451924000491/pdfft?md5=ff30fc4df1fa36e6ced683b6ed56e3d2&pid=1-s2.0-S1674451924000491-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141607540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}