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The active role of the natural rate of unemployment 自然失业率的积极作用
IF 1.3
Research in Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101092
Robert E. Hall , Marianna Kudlyak
{"title":"The active role of the natural rate of unemployment","authors":"Robert E. Hall ,&nbsp;Marianna Kudlyak","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101092","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101092","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose that the natural rate of unemployment may have an active role in the business cycle, in contrast to a widespread view that the rate is fairly smooth and at most only weakly cyclical. We demonstrate that the tendency to treat the natural rate as near-constant would explain the surprisingly low slope of the Phillips curve. We observe that evidence is weak about this basic point—the evidence neither comes close to rejecting the conventional view nor does it reject a very different view in which fluctuations in the natural rate are associated with a substantial fraction of cyclical volatility. We show that the natural rate may have closely tracked the actual rate during the long recovery that began in 2009 and ended in 2019. We explain how the common finding of research in the Phillips-curve framework of low — often extremely low — response of inflation to unemployment could be the result of fairly close tracking of the natural rate and the actual rate in recoveries. Our interpretation of the data contrasts to that of many Phillips-curve studies, that conclude that inflation has little relation to unemployment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 4","pages":"Article 101092"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145094591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The price of illicit trade in Egypt: Illicit trade empowers criminals at the expense of ordinary people 埃及非法贸易的代价：以牺牲普通人的利益为代价，非法贸易助长了犯罪分子
IF 1.3
Research in Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101094
Maged Ali
{"title":"The price of illicit trade in Egypt: Illicit trade empowers criminals at the expense of ordinary people","authors":"Maged Ali","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101094","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101094","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Egyptians face a daily struggle, with rising inflation and high poverty rates. Beyond the economic pressures, many live under the threat of crime, including terrorism, trafficking, and organized violence. Illicit trade fuels these crimes by providing criminal networks with financial means and infrastructure. It also spreads lawbreaking and violence, and weakens the state's capacity to act. As a result, illicit trade harms ordinary Egyptians. Reducing illicit trade will weaken criminal networks and improve Egyptians’ safety. To reduce illicit trade, enforcement is needed at both entry points and within markets. New technologies such as big data and AI can render enforcement faster, smarter, and more effective. However, enforcement alone risks failing to effectively reduce illicit trade. As long as consumers continue buying smuggled goods, smugglers will find new ways to move them. Offering legal, affordable alternatives is therefore key to reduce demand for illicit goods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 4","pages":"Article 101094"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145465993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The bias of consumption-interdependent markets 消费依赖市场的偏见
IF 1.3
Research in Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101077
Marco Vinicio Monge-Mora , Juan Andrés Robalino-Herrera
{"title":"The bias of consumption-interdependent markets","authors":"Marco Vinicio Monge-Mora ,&nbsp;Juan Andrés Robalino-Herrera","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101077","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101077","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Depending on consumption complementarity, the partial equilibrium effect of taxes and subsidies in the price of a commodity underestimates or overestimates the general equilibrium effect. We formalize this theoretical issue relating it to a practical problem: if we use a tax-free market as a counterfactual to see the price consequences of taxing another market, our estimates will be biased because the Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption (SUTVA) is violated. In this manuscript, we present a general formula for the relative size of this bias, which we will call “the bias of consumption-interdependent markets”. Our results lead to methodological warnings and recommendations about how tax-free markets can be used as controls to study the treatment effect of a tax on the price of a particular market: the treated market and the control should have a low degree of substitution/complementarity; but, even so, the relative size of the bias we study depends not only on the degree of substitution/complementarity between treated and control, but also on the degree of substitution/complementarity of treated and control with any other commodity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 4","pages":"Article 101077"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145018538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sustainable finance and renewable energy investment as dual drivers of economic growth and environmental sustainability in the European Union 可持续金融和可再生能源投资：欧盟经济增长和环境可持续性的双重驱动力
IF 1.3
Research in Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101065
Xianxian Xu , Luyao Tan , Jinlong Zhao
{"title":"Sustainable finance and renewable energy investment as dual drivers of economic growth and environmental sustainability in the European Union","authors":"Xianxian Xu ,&nbsp;Luyao Tan ,&nbsp;Jinlong Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101065","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101065","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of sustainable finance and investment in renewable energy on economic growth and environmental conservation in 22 EU nations from 2003 to 2025. The primary objective is to comprehend how these factors contribute to sustained economic advancement and environmental stewardship. The report analyses critical variables, including sustainable funding, clean energy investments, economic development, and carbon emissions, utilising secondary data from sources such as Eurostat, IRENA, and the World Bank. The System GMM approach is employed to address any data-related difficulties and guarantee robust outcomes. The results indicate that sustainable finance accelerates the transition to clean energy, reduces detrimental emissions, and enhances economic activity. Similarly, investments in renewable energy enhance GDP development, attract global investment, and ameliorate environmental problems. Moreover, foreign direct investment and liberal trade policies are essential catalysts for sustainability, underscoring the necessity to synchronise sustainable financing with international economic strategies. The report advocates for more robust laws to enhance sustainable financing, support clean energy initiatives, and advance low-emission technologies. These endeavours are essential for sustaining economic stability and environmental integrity throughout time. This study provides critical recommendations for politicians, investors, and international institutions involved in sustainable development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 4","pages":"Article 101065"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144852477","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An incomplete contract analysis of innovation management: “Open vs. closed” innovation in a dynamic framework 创新管理的不完全契约分析：动态框架下的“开放与封闭”创新
IF 1.3
Research in Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101080
Yutaka Suzuki
{"title":"An incomplete contract analysis of innovation management: “Open vs. closed” innovation in a dynamic framework","authors":"Yutaka Suzuki","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101080","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101080","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Introducing the dynamic accumulation of “capability assets”, we extend the base model of Aghion = Tirole (1994), which applied the property rights approach of Grossman=Hart=Moore (1986,1990) to innovation management, into the two-period version, and analyze how “changes in firm boundaries” affect innovation and how “firm boundaries” regarding innovation are determined from a long-term perspective. In our two-period model (with organizational capability asset), it is optimal to allocate property rights to those with higher marginal efficiency of investment including dynamic effects (direct effects and strategic effects). If the dynamic marginal efficiency of investment of the research firm is sufficiently large, Non-integration (R-Ownership) regime will be chosen and “Open Innovation” will emerge. If the dynamic marginal efficiency of investment of the production firm is sufficiently large, Integration (P-Ownership) regime will be chosen and “Closed Innovation” by large firms will emerge. If the dynamic marginal efficiency of investment of the production firm is not so high, even when it is optimal to “integrate” in a static game, it can be optimal in a dynamic framework to remain “non-integrated” and keep the partnership relationship between independent firms to induce investment incentives from both sides. An extension to longer-periods and the discussion on Cash Constraints are also presented.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 4","pages":"Article 101080"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144852474","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Green finance innovation and corporate resilience: Evidence from China's reform pilot zones 绿色金融创新与企业韧性：来自中国改革试验区的证据
IF 1.3
Research in Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101066
Aiting Xu , Yujie Dai , Zhiyuan Hu
{"title":"Green finance innovation and corporate resilience: Evidence from China's reform pilot zones","authors":"Aiting Xu ,&nbsp;Yujie Dai ,&nbsp;Zhiyuan Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101066","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101066","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using green finance innovative strategies has significantly improved the resilience of firms operating inside China's revamp pilot zones. This research, which is based on a multi-phase difference-in-differences technique and uses enterprise-level data covering the years 2015 through 2025, reveals that the effects are varied across different geographies, sectors, and firm characteristics. Among the primary drivers, the mechanism results indicate that digital conversion, better creative ability, and reduced finance restrictions are all critical factors. The emergence of some outcomes, such as those associated with the use of industrial robots, occurs with a temporal lag. This study's findings provide insights valuable to policymakers on how green financing influences the flexibility of businesses and promotes long-term sustainable growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 4","pages":"Article 101066"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144842221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The threshold impact of fiscal disaster relief expenditure on economic growth: Evidence from China 财政救灾支出对经济增长的阈值影响：来自中国的证据
IF 1.3
Research in Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101076
Franck Edouard Gnahe
{"title":"The threshold impact of fiscal disaster relief expenditure on economic growth: Evidence from China","authors":"Franck Edouard Gnahe","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101076","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101076","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This work employs a stochastic general equilibrium model to examine the theoretical link between the magnitude of government fiscal disaster relief spending and economic growth. This paper employs a dynamic panel threshold model to investigate the optimal magnitude of government fiscal catastrophe relief expenditures. The numerical simulation findings indicate that the magnitude of moderate government financial disaster relief expenditures is strongly correlated with the frequency of natural catastrophes. The extent of government financial catastrophe relief expenditure has an \"inverted U-shaped\" correlation with economic development. The empirical findings indicate a clear nonlinear correlation between the magnitude of government financial disaster relief expenditures and economic growth. The escalation will foster economic expansion, but when government fiscal disaster relief spending is over the threshold, the correlation between the magnitude of such expenditure and economic growth may invert.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 4","pages":"Article 101076"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144750114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Artificial intelligence: Redefining the retirement pattern 人工智能：重新定义退休模式
IF 1.2
Research in Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101062
Rosa Aísa, Josefina Cabeza
{"title":"Artificial intelligence: Redefining the retirement pattern","authors":"Rosa Aísa,&nbsp;Josefina Cabeza","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101062","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101062","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>An endogenous economic growth model is developed, where the decisions to use artificial intelligences (AIs) in the workplace and to extend working life are endogenous and interdependent. There are four sources of heterogeneity among workers: differences in initial productivity, variations in the aging process, restricted access to jobs with AI investment, and uneven impact of AIs among those who have access. It is shown that those who do not use AIs in their jobs maintain a traditional pattern of retirement, with the most educated and/or healthy among them extending their working lives. In contrast, the retirement pattern for AI-using workers changes, and it is the users who derive the most benefit from AIs who will extend their working lives. This is because AIs compensate for the skills that tend to deteriorate with age, thus allowing for greater permanence in the labour market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 3","pages":"Article 101062"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144297690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
“Geopolitical crises and economic policy uncertainty: Time series analysis from the United States” 地缘政治危机与经济政策不确定性：来自美国的时间序列分析
IF 1.2
Research in Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101061
Isa Camyar , Bahar Ulupinar
{"title":"“Geopolitical crises and economic policy uncertainty: Time series analysis from the United States”","authors":"Isa Camyar ,&nbsp;Bahar Ulupinar","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101061","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101061","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is empirically associated with a variety of economic and financial outcomes. However, its sources remain understudied. In this study, we analyze the long-run and short-run impacts of geopolitical crises on EPU by using evidence from the United States (U.S.) for the period of 1985-2019. We present a time series analysis, specifically the autoregressive distributive lag model, on a monthly dataset with the indicators of EPU and geopolitical crises. We find that the impact of geopolitical crises on EPU is conditional and temporal, meaning that it is significant only if the U.S. is directly involved or an active participant in them and materializes over time.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 3","pages":"Article 101061"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144335751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
ESG disclosure and labour investment efficiency ESG信息披露与劳动投资效率
IF 1.2
Research in Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101060
Paulo Pereira da Silva , Isabel Vieira
{"title":"ESG disclosure and labour investment efficiency","authors":"Paulo Pereira da Silva ,&nbsp;Isabel Vieira","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101060","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101060","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of environmental, social and governance (ESG) disclosure on firms’ labour investment efficiency. Our results indicate that such impact is positive. ESG disclosure is more effective in curtailing over-hiring and when over-investment in physical capital is high. The uncovered positive association is mainly fuelled by the volume of social and governance disclosure (environmental disclosure barely affects labour investment efficiency), and is more pronounced for firms with a weaker corporate social responsibility performance. The results from the empirical analysis survive a battery of robustness tests, including the use of alternative measures to capture labour investment efficiency, different control variables in regression models, and controlling for endogeneity in ESG disclosure. Our analysis and findings are novel to the literature and contribute to ongoing debates about the impact of ESG disclosure on firms’ performance and about potential benefits and costs of mandatory disclosure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 3","pages":"Article 101060"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143748641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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