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The active role of the natural rate of unemployment 自然失业率的积极作用
IF 1.3
Research in Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101092
Robert E. Hall , Marianna Kudlyak
{"title":"The active role of the natural rate of unemployment","authors":"Robert E. Hall ,&nbsp;Marianna Kudlyak","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101092","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101092","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose that the natural rate of unemployment may have an active role in the business cycle, in contrast to a widespread view that the rate is fairly smooth and at most only weakly cyclical. We demonstrate that the tendency to treat the natural rate as near-constant would explain the surprisingly low slope of the Phillips curve. We observe that evidence is weak about this basic point—the evidence neither comes close to rejecting the conventional view nor does it reject a very different view in which fluctuations in the natural rate are associated with a substantial fraction of cyclical volatility. We show that the natural rate may have closely tracked the actual rate during the long recovery that began in 2009 and ended in 2019. We explain how the common finding of research in the Phillips-curve framework of low — often extremely low — response of inflation to unemployment could be the result of fairly close tracking of the natural rate and the actual rate in recoveries. Our interpretation of the data contrasts to that of many Phillips-curve studies, that conclude that inflation has little relation to unemployment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 4","pages":"Article 101092"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145094591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The bias of consumption-interdependent markets 消费依赖市场的偏见
IF 1.3
Research in Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101077
Marco Vinicio Monge-Mora , Juan Andrés Robalino-Herrera
{"title":"The bias of consumption-interdependent markets","authors":"Marco Vinicio Monge-Mora ,&nbsp;Juan Andrés Robalino-Herrera","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101077","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101077","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Depending on consumption complementarity, the partial equilibrium effect of taxes and subsidies in the price of a commodity underestimates or overestimates the general equilibrium effect. We formalize this theoretical issue relating it to a practical problem: if we use a tax-free market as a counterfactual to see the price consequences of taxing another market, our estimates will be biased because the Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption (SUTVA) is violated. In this manuscript, we present a general formula for the relative size of this bias, which we will call “the bias of consumption-interdependent markets”. Our results lead to methodological warnings and recommendations about how tax-free markets can be used as controls to study the treatment effect of a tax on the price of a particular market: the treated market and the control should have a low degree of substitution/complementarity; but, even so, the relative size of the bias we study depends not only on the degree of substitution/complementarity between treated and control, but also on the degree of substitution/complementarity of treated and control with any other commodity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 4","pages":"Article 101077"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145018538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Rethinking tobacco policy: Why a Cap-and-Levy scheme can outperform the UK’s sales ban 重新思考烟草政策：为什么限额和征税计划可以胜过英国的销售禁令
IF 1.3
Research in Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101084
Joan E. Madia
{"title":"Rethinking tobacco policy: Why a Cap-and-Levy scheme can outperform the UK’s sales ban","authors":"Joan E. Madia","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101084","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101084","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The United Kingdom aims to be smoke-free by 2030, and in pursuit of this goal, has proposed a Generational Sales Ban (GSB). While somewhat innovative, the GSB exclusively targets future generations, potentially overlooking the immediate health burdens and illicit market risks associated with current smokers. This study argues for a Cap-and-Levy scheme as a more comprehensive and efficient alternative. By directly addressing supply, consumption, and state tax revenues, a Cap-and-Levy approach offers a broader impact on smoking prevalence including existing smokers, while potentially mitigating the unintended consequences of a sales ban, such as fuelling the illicit trade and reducing tax revenues. This analysis suggests that a Cap-and-Levy mechanism warrants consideration as a policy instrument that could outperform the GSB in achieving significant and immediate reductions in smoking-related harm, without the unintended consequences that the GSB would produce.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 4","pages":"Article 101084"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145048382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An incomplete contract analysis of innovation management: “Open vs. closed” innovation in a dynamic framework 创新管理的不完全契约分析：动态框架下的“开放与封闭”创新
IF 1.3
Research in Economics Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101080
Yutaka Suzuki
{"title":"An incomplete contract analysis of innovation management: “Open vs. closed” innovation in a dynamic framework","authors":"Yutaka Suzuki","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101080","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101080","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Introducing the dynamic accumulation of “capability assets”, we extend the base model of Aghion = Tirole (1994), which applied the property rights approach of Grossman=Hart=Moore (1986,1990) to innovation management, into the two-period version, and analyze how “changes in firm boundaries” affect innovation and how “firm boundaries” regarding innovation are determined from a long-term perspective. In our two-period model (with organizational capability asset), it is optimal to allocate property rights to those with higher marginal efficiency of investment including dynamic effects (direct effects and strategic effects). If the dynamic marginal efficiency of investment of the research firm is sufficiently large, Non-integration (R-Ownership) regime will be chosen and “Open Innovation” will emerge. If the dynamic marginal efficiency of investment of the production firm is sufficiently large, Integration (P-Ownership) regime will be chosen and “Closed Innovation” by large firms will emerge. If the dynamic marginal efficiency of investment of the production firm is not so high, even when it is optimal to “integrate” in a static game, it can be optimal in a dynamic framework to remain “non-integrated” and keep the partnership relationship between independent firms to induce investment incentives from both sides. An extension to longer-periods and the discussion on Cash Constraints are also presented.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 4","pages":"Article 101080"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144852474","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The threshold impact of fiscal disaster relief expenditure on economic growth: Evidence from China 财政救灾支出对经济增长的阈值影响：来自中国的证据
IF 1.3
Research in Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101076
Franck Edouard Gnahe
{"title":"The threshold impact of fiscal disaster relief expenditure on economic growth: Evidence from China","authors":"Franck Edouard Gnahe","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101076","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101076","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This work employs a stochastic general equilibrium model to examine the theoretical link between the magnitude of government fiscal disaster relief spending and economic growth. This paper employs a dynamic panel threshold model to investigate the optimal magnitude of government fiscal catastrophe relief expenditures. The numerical simulation findings indicate that the magnitude of moderate government financial disaster relief expenditures is strongly correlated with the frequency of natural catastrophes. The extent of government financial catastrophe relief expenditure has an \"inverted U-shaped\" correlation with economic development. The empirical findings indicate a clear nonlinear correlation between the magnitude of government financial disaster relief expenditures and economic growth. The escalation will foster economic expansion, but when government fiscal disaster relief spending is over the threshold, the correlation between the magnitude of such expenditure and economic growth may invert.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 4","pages":"Article 101076"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144750114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Convergence in economic growth and institutional quality: Does convergence of institutions matter to catch-up rich economies? 经济增长和制度质量的趋同：制度趋同对追赶的富裕经济体重要吗？
IF 1.2
Research in Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101079
Muhammad Safdar , Ahmad Nawaz
{"title":"Convergence in economic growth and institutional quality: Does convergence of institutions matter to catch-up rich economies?","authors":"Muhammad Safdar ,&nbsp;Ahmad Nawaz","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101079","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101079","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Convergence of economic growth among the global north and south countries has attracted a considerable attention of policymakers and researchers. However, the growth literature lacks the comprehensive empirical evidence on the convergence of institutional quality and its implications for growth convergence particularly in terms of countries’ heterogeneities. This study aims to empirically investigate three types of convergence hypotheses both in economic growth and institutional quality. Moreover, it is examined whether the convergence of institutional quality leads to growth convergence? The empirical analysis is based on sample of 120 countries for 1984–2015 period. The findings reveal striking evidence of disparities in speed of growth and institutional quality convergence. The speed of growth convergence is highest in East Asian, transition, and advanced economies; however, the speed of institutional quality convergence is lowest in these countries. Developing countries show the reverse pattern with highest institutional convergence and lowest growth convergence. Such decoupling empirical dynamics between growth and institutional quality convergence indicate the path dependence and lock-in patterns of developing countries. This study empirically shows that higher speed of institutional convergence alone is unable to foster the growth catch-up process.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 3","pages":"Article 101079"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144687230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Distance related time zone difference, waiting time, trade, and Dutch disease 距离相关的时区差异，等待时间，贸易和荷兰病
IF 1.3
Research in Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101078
Maitrayee Das , Biswajit Mandal
{"title":"Distance related time zone difference, waiting time, trade, and Dutch disease","authors":"Maitrayee Das ,&nbsp;Biswajit Mandal","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101078","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101078","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper develops a theoretical framework to examine trade dynamics across four sectors: services, manufacturing, importable goods and the informal sector. The model investigates the role of distance in shaping trade patterns, outputs, and factor prices, highlighting the key differences between goods and services trade, particularly their sensitivity to distance related marketing cost. The model presents the possibility of ‘Dutch disease’ in the informal sector. Distinguishing between goods and services in terms of marketing and transport costs, the model reveals how resources—especially skilled labour—are allocated between service and manufacturing sectors. Furthermore, it outlines two scenarios for the informal sector, independent and integrated with manufacturing, in exploring how these configurations affect trade and production. Moreover, the empirical results corroborate findings obtained in the theoretical model and deepen our understanding of the complex interactions between time zone and trade.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 4","pages":"Article 101078"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144779342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
“Geopolitical crises and economic policy uncertainty: Time series analysis from the United States” 地缘政治危机与经济政策不确定性：来自美国的时间序列分析
IF 1.2
Research in Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101061
Isa Camyar , Bahar Ulupinar
{"title":"“Geopolitical crises and economic policy uncertainty: Time series analysis from the United States”","authors":"Isa Camyar ,&nbsp;Bahar Ulupinar","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101061","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101061","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is empirically associated with a variety of economic and financial outcomes. However, its sources remain understudied. In this study, we analyze the long-run and short-run impacts of geopolitical crises on EPU by using evidence from the United States (U.S.) for the period of 1985-2019. We present a time series analysis, specifically the autoregressive distributive lag model, on a monthly dataset with the indicators of EPU and geopolitical crises. We find that the impact of geopolitical crises on EPU is conditional and temporal, meaning that it is significant only if the U.S. is directly involved or an active participant in them and materializes over time.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 3","pages":"Article 101061"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144335751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dream killer: Motivations behind illegal migration 梦想杀手：非法移民背后的动机
IF 1.2
Research in Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101063
Farid Makhlouf , Hammou El Otmany
{"title":"Dream killer: Motivations behind illegal migration","authors":"Farid Makhlouf ,&nbsp;Hammou El Otmany","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101063","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101063","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Illegal migration poses a significant challenge for both sides of the Mediterranean. To understand the motivation behind the intention to migrate illegally from Tunisia, this study, based on a survey conducted by the Arab Barometer in 2021, uses a two-stage Heckman model to control for selection bias and tests different factors such as education levels, social capital, and social networks. The findings show that a lack of education or a low level of education significantly increases the desire to go abroad even without the required documents. This statement is more strongly made by those with relatively low levels of social capital. In addition, social networks were identified as an essential factor in legal migration but do not explain illegal migration.</div><div>This study is therefore convinced that investment in education and social capital can be an effective tool in mitigating clandestine migration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 3","pages":"Article 101063"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144314497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Artificial intelligence: Redefining the retirement pattern 人工智能：重新定义退休模式
IF 1.2
Research in Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101062
Rosa Aísa, Josefina Cabeza
{"title":"Artificial intelligence: Redefining the retirement pattern","authors":"Rosa Aísa,&nbsp;Josefina Cabeza","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101062","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101062","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>An endogenous economic growth model is developed, where the decisions to use artificial intelligences (AIs) in the workplace and to extend working life are endogenous and interdependent. There are four sources of heterogeneity among workers: differences in initial productivity, variations in the aging process, restricted access to jobs with AI investment, and uneven impact of AIs among those who have access. It is shown that those who do not use AIs in their jobs maintain a traditional pattern of retirement, with the most educated and/or healthy among them extending their working lives. In contrast, the retirement pattern for AI-using workers changes, and it is the users who derive the most benefit from AIs who will extend their working lives. This is because AIs compensate for the skills that tend to deteriorate with age, thus allowing for greater permanence in the labour market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 3","pages":"Article 101062"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144297690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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