Rethinking tobacco policy: Why a Cap-and-Levy scheme can outperform the UK’s sales ban

Abstract

The United Kingdom aims to be smoke-free by 2030, and in pursuit of this goal, has proposed a Generational Sales Ban (GSB). While somewhat innovative, the GSB exclusively targets future generations, potentially overlooking the immediate health burdens and illicit market risks associated with current smokers. This study argues for a Cap-and-Levy scheme as a more comprehensive and efficient alternative. By directly addressing supply, consumption, and state tax revenues, a Cap-and-Levy approach offers a broader impact on smoking prevalence including existing smokers, while potentially mitigating the unintended consequences of a sales ban, such as fuelling the illicit trade and reducing tax revenues. This analysis suggests that a Cap-and-Levy mechanism warrants consideration as a policy instrument that could outperform the GSB in achieving significant and immediate reductions in smoking-related harm, without the unintended consequences that the GSB would produce.