Income inequality, poverty, and trade liberalization: Evidence from the Vietnam–Us Bilateral Trade Agreement

Abstract

This study investigates how tariff reductions, introduced by the Vietnam–US Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA), shaped patterns of income inequality and poverty in Vietnam from 2002 to 2018. Using a province-level dataset derived from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey and corresponding tariff measures, the analysis focuses on the P80/P20 ratio for income inequality and the poverty headcount ratio as key outcomes. The findings indicate that while overall poverty rates declined substantially following the BTA, particularly in more industrialized regions such as the Red River Delta and the Southeast, the effects on income inequality were not uniform. In certain areas, notably the Mekong River Delta, reliance on agriculture and limited diversification may have left households vulnerable to global price fluctuations, offsetting the potential gains from enhanced market access. Conversely, regions with robust infrastructure, diverse industrial bases, and higher foreign direct investment witnessed a more pronounced drop in both income inequality and poverty. These results underscore the importance of regional characteristics, including sector composition and connectivity, in determining the distributional consequences of trade liberalization.