Middle East Policy最新文献_第5页

Do Turkey's 2024 Local Elections Signal the End of Erdoğan's Reign? 土耳其 2024 年地方选举是否预示着埃尔多安统治的终结？

IF 0.5 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2024-05-09 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12747

M. Hakan Yavuz, Rasim Koç

{"title":"Do Turkey's 2024 Local Elections Signal the End of Erdoğan's Reign?","authors":"M. Hakan Yavuz, Rasim Koç","doi":"10.1111/mepo.12747","DOIUrl":"10.1111/mepo.12747","url":null,"abstract":"The unexpected victory of the opposition Republican People's Party in Turkey's March 31 municipal elections raises intriguing questions about the future of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan after more than two decades of his rule. Just 10 months after Erdoğan won a new term, a significant portion of the electorate voted against him and his Justice and Development Party, marking his largest defeat ever. The president acknowledged the significance of the defeat, describing the results as “not only a loss of votes but also a loss of soul and blood.” This article analyzes the factors that drove the outcome and contends that this was more a protest of the Turkish strongman than an approval of opposition policies. The people voted against Erdoğan's arrogance and authoritarian style, as well as the poor quality of his party's candidates; the worsening economy, especially for retirees; and perceptions of a deteriorating justice system. The main opposition party also benefited from skillful leadership less than a year after its defeat in the presidential election. While the outcome of the 2024 vote signals a desire for democratic governance and accountability, it remains uncertain at this early stage whether this is a temporary deviation.","PeriodicalId":46060,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Policy","volume":"31 2","pages":"95-107"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/mepo.12747","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140997621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Practice of Friendship Balancing: Russia-Israel Relations, 2015 to 2021 平衡友谊的实践：2015 至 2021 年的俄以关系

IF 0.5 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2024-05-08 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12743

Chen Kertcher, Dima Course

引用次数: 0

Ten Years After: Revisiting the Ouster Of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood 十年之后：重温埃及穆斯林兄弟会下台事件

IF 0.5 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2024-05-06 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12746

Ebtisam Hussein

{"title":"Ten Years After: Revisiting the Ouster Of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood","authors":"Ebtisam Hussein","doi":"10.1111/mepo.12746","DOIUrl":"10.1111/mepo.12746","url":null,"abstract":"The ouster of President Hosni Mubarak in 2011 marked a turning point in Egypt's modern history. The long-persecuted Muslim Brotherhood immediately became a key political player, and its candidate, Mohamed Morsi, won election to lead the country. But despite those two years of popular engagement and victories at the ballot box, Morsi was ousted and the movement banished once again after a confrontation with the military in July 2013. Why did the Brotherhood choose to risk a conflict with the armed forces and not seek a compromise? This article contends that the decision was driven by the Muslim Brotherhood's long history of persecution, its broad base of support, its impressive successes after Mubarak fell, and its fear of losing the presidency. These set the Brotherhood on a course of action that suited its experiences and preferences. This path led the movement to ignore several facts suggesting it must seek to coordinate with the armed forces: The Brotherhood and the military did not enjoy cordial relations after Morsi's election in 2012; the movement's grassroots power was substantial, but there was no evidence it could prevail over the military's demand for Morsi to step down; and the military maintained its internal cohesion. Therefore, the Muslim Brotherhood's historical path guided its decision to avoid cooperation.","PeriodicalId":46060,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Policy","volume":"31 2","pages":"124-135"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141009676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The World Powers and Iran: Before, During, and After the Nuclear Deal By Banafsheh Keynoush. Palgrave Macmillan, 2022. 196 pages. $54.99, hardcover. 世界大国与伊朗：核协议之前、期间和之后》，BanafshehKeynoush 著。帕尔格雷夫-麦克米伦出版社，2022 年。196页。精装版 54.99 美元。

IF 0.6 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2024-05-05 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12739

Mahmood Monshipouri

引用次数: 0

The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Historical and Political PerspectivesBy M. Hakan Yavuz and Michael Gunter. Routledge, 2023. 462 pages. $54.99, paper. 纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫冲突：历史与政治视角》，M.Hakan Yavuz 和 MichaelGunter 著。Routledge, 2023 年。462 页。54.99 美元，纸质版。

IF 0.5 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2024-05-05 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12742

Umut Uzer

引用次数: 0

The Struggle for Supremacy in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia and Iran By Simon Mabon. Cambridge University Press, 2023. 268 pages. $90, hardcover. 中东霸权之争：沙特阿拉伯与伊朗》，西蒙-马本著。剑桥大学出版社，2023 年。268 页。90美元，精装。

IF 0.5 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2024-05-05 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12745

Guo Juanwugao

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Unlikely Alliances: How the Wars in Karabakh And Gaza Shape Northwest Asian Security 不可能的联盟：卡拉巴赫和加沙战争如何影响西北亚安全

IF 0.5 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2024-05-03 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12741

Emil A. Souleimanov

引用次数: 0

Lessons for Israel's Gaza War In America's Strategic Blunders 美国战略失误给以色列加沙战争带来的启示

IF 0.5 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2024-05-02 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12744

Mahmood Monshipouri

{"title":"Lessons for Israel's Gaza War In America's Strategic Blunders","authors":"Mahmood Monshipouri","doi":"10.1111/mepo.12744","DOIUrl":"10.1111/mepo.12744","url":null,"abstract":"Lessons learned from counterterrorism operations indicate that purely military solutions are doomed to fail, and Israel is primed to repeat many of these mistakes. The comparison between America's post-9/11 wars and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not perfect: Al-Qaeda was in Afghanistan but was not native to the country, and the transnational ISIS emerged out of the chaos in Iraq and Syria. Hamas, by contrast, represents a resistance movement indigenous to Gaza. The militant group is deeply rooted in the political and social struggle for Palestinian self-determination, and its activities and support are motivated by desperate conditions on the ground. If Israel's assaults on Gaza in retaliation for the October 2023 Hamas bloodbath are to achieve enduring security, key questions arise, including whether the conflict will end with military occupation or political settlement. I argue that Israel should learn from the US strategic blunders in Afghanistan and Iraq. Absent a political solution, Israelis are likely to face terrorist assaults in the future. The military campaign may weaken or impair Hamas's infrastructure and power bases in Gaza, but without a plan for governance and development, Israel is likely to face the re-emergence of a broadly based resistance movement.","PeriodicalId":46060,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Policy","volume":"31 2","pages":"3-18"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141018693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Israeli Hydro-Hegemony and the Gaza War 以色列的水力霸权与加沙战争

IF 0.5 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12740

Peter Seeberg

引用次数: 0

The Middle East and the Ukraine War: Between Fear and Opportunity 中东和乌克兰战争：恐惧与机遇并存

IF 0.5 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2024-04-30 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12738

Jeffrey Mankoff

{"title":"The Middle East and the Ukraine War: Between Fear and Opportunity","authors":"Jeffrey Mankoff","doi":"10.1111/mepo.12738","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12738","url":null,"abstract":"While the ambivalence among Middle Eastern states about the war in Ukraine stems from multiple sources, Russian influence is a significant, if underappreciated, factor. Several of these countries see Moscow as an external balancer and hedge against the possibility of a broader US pullback from the region. At the same time, Russia maintains significant coercive capabilities thanks to its military presence in Syria and burgeoning strategic partnership with Iran. Many aspiring regional powers are also sympathetic to Moscow's calls for an international order less centered on the West. This article analyzes these concerns and perceptions, and it shows how they have shaped the way states in the region have responded to the invasion of Ukraine. Broadly speaking, these states see it as a peripheral concern—especially following the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas in October 2023—though one that could destabilize the region by stoking inflation or further emboldening Iran. While they are wary of confronting Moscow or facing regional instability, many also directly benefit from Russia's economic decoupling from the West. These countries share President Vladimir Putin's assessment that the war in Ukraine is inaugurating a new age more friendly to middle powers.","PeriodicalId":46060,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Policy","volume":"31 2","pages":"47-66"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141287011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0