Space Policy最新文献

{"title":"Is there a market for micro-launch vehicles?","authors":"Felipe Motta ,&nbsp;José Bezerra Pessoa Filho ,&nbsp;Alison de Oliveira Moraes","doi":"10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101629","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101629","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The dramatic miniaturization of electronics has led to the SmallSat Revolution. The number of operational satellites has increased from 769 in 2000 to 6905 in 2022. Owing to the deployment of constellations, 26,104 satellites weighing less than 500 kg, known as SmallSats, are expected to be launched between 2023 and 2032. Targeting this market niche, 42 initiatives are underway to develop micro-launch vehicles (LVs), that is, LVs capable of carrying less than 500 kg into orbit. Compared with larger LVs, the cost to launch SmallSats on micro-LVs can be 10 times higher. Consequently, most SmallSat operators opt to send their payloads into space aboard larger LVs using a modality called rideshare. In 2021, SpaceX's Falcon 9 flew 143 SmallSats belonging to different owners. In fact, only 4% of the 7026 SmallSats launched in the 2013–2022 period flew aboard micro-LVs. Based on these facts, the present study addresses the question regarding the existence of a commercial market for the numerous micro-LVs in development. There are a few cases in which micro-LVs may be the best option. One relates to the need to launch a SmallSat within a short period of notice, either for civilian or military reasons. Micro-LVs may also be used as experimental platforms on which new techniques, fabrication processes, flight hardware, and software can be developed for later use on larger LVs. It is worth noting that governments have invested in the development of micro-LVs and their launch facilities to foster the space industry of different countries, but the commercial prospects for micro-LVS are limited due to the much lower launch prices offered by larger vehicles.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45924,"journal":{"name":"Space Policy","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 101629"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143148492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Planetary parks twenty years on. Balancing space protection with development","authors":"Charles S. Cockell","doi":"10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101647","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101647","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With increasing activity in space by both national space agencies and private organizations, there is a renewed purpose in considering how to achieve the protection of certain regions of the extraterrestrial environment, yet allow for the commercial development of space to encourage a permanent human presence beyond Earth. This paper revisits the idea of planetary parks twenty years on. One advantage of this concept is that, like national parks on Earth, they can allow for the protection of land for many reasons including scientific value, aesthetic beauty, sites containing historical artefacts, and others. None of these motivations are mutually exclusive and they can be manifested to different degrees in different places. Planetary parks provide the flexibility to incorporate these motivations within a single framework. Outside planetary parks, land can be developed and transformed. Planetary parks offer a way to move beyond the generic notion of ‘planetary protection’ towards a more local targeted preservation mechanism, encouraging the emergence of a space environmental ethic in parallel with the objective of commercial space development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45924,"journal":{"name":"Space Policy","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 101647"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143149052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Space and cybersecurity: Challenges and opportunities emerging from national strategy narratives","authors":"Juan Racionero-Garcia ,&nbsp;Siraj Ahmed Shaikh","doi":"10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101648","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101648","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Modern societies<span> are increasingly dependent on space technology. The number of activities that rely on space infrastructure includes global positioning and communications systems, financial transactions and global trade, public and private scientific research, environmental monitoring and fore-casting, and audio-visual entertainment. Within the security and defence domain, this reliance becomes even more pronounced as satellites enhance command, control, communications and intelligence, surveillance, and recon-naissance (C4ISR), missile defence, or advanced autonomous systems. Furthermore, ongoing advancements in science and technology are opening new frontiers in outer space, promising significant economic potential through ventures like space travel and space mining. Considering the geopolitical implications of the dependence on space technology, the objective of this study is to examine how Western countries and organizations understand space within their strategic thinking. By conducting a comparative analysis of the most recent national security strategies and security and defence space strategies released by a sample of Western countries and organizations, including the United States, the United Kingdom, France, the European Union<span> and NATO, this study aims to discern the narratives employed to depict the space domain and to identify the key trends within it, with a specific focus on the interplay between space and cybersecurity.</span></span></div><div>This exercise will facilitate the identification of areas where enhanced collaboration among the selected actors is feasible or where competition may define their relationships. Consequently, it will help determine the potential for a coordinated response to collective challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45924,"journal":{"name":"Space Policy","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 101648"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143149053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identifying risks for success in space tourism: A proactive approach for Türkiye","authors":"Vahit Oğuz Kiper,&nbsp;Orhan Batman","doi":"10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101654","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101654","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Effective planning is crucial for the success of any tourism endeavor, including space tourism. To ensure correct and proactive planning, it is essential to identify and address potential threats and weaknesses in advance. This research aims to reveal possible threats to Turkiye's success in the field of space tourism, employing a qualitative research approach with expert interviews. Building on this context, the research adopts a deductive approach, focusing on a qualitative “situation analysis” design, with Türkiye as the universe and sample. Expert opinions from professionals with technical knowledge of space commercialization and tourism were collected using a snowball sampling technique. Through in-depth interviews, the perceived risks were identified and analyzed. The data obtained were coded and categorized, resulting in main themes related to various elements of the external environment, including political, international, legal, economic, social-cultural, demographic, and technological risks, as well as ethical considerations.The findings highlight that space tourism activities, especially suborbital and extraorbital ventures, carry significant risks. To ensure Türkiye's success in space tourism, the study emphasizes the importance of conducting a comprehensive analysis of the external environment, considering the interrelatedness of the identified risk factors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45924,"journal":{"name":"Space Policy","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 101654"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143149055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sustainability as a core principle of space and planetary exploration","authors":"Dimitra Atri ,&nbsp;Paulina Umansky ,&nbsp;Katepalli R. Sreenivasan","doi":"10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101636","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101636","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span>Human Society has renewed interest in exploration and settlement of the Moon, demonstrated by NASA's active Artemis program, privatization of United States' lunar exploration<span> through Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS), and China's planned International Lunar Research Station (ILRS). Plans extend beyond just the Moon, driven by NASA's establishment of the Moon to Mars Program, developments in In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) for crewed exploration, and commercial interests in asteroid resources. As we enter a new era of large-scale space exploration, both public and private for the first time, the environments of the Moon and Mars are at risk of being irreversibly altered by human activity. We propose that sustainability should be laid at the foundation of the next generation of human space exploration. To this end, existing </span></span>planetary protection<span> policies must be expanded to include requirements for protecting the Lunar and Martian environments beyond biological contamination, and guidelines founded on space sustainability should be expanded to include issues beyond orbital debris, crowding, and security. Existing and improved policies should adopt compliance incentives. This shift in policy is not only crucial for the long-term success of upcoming programs, but, if implemented, can foreseeably lead to positive developments on Earth.</span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":45924,"journal":{"name":"Space Policy","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 101636"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143149054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Project and knowledge management at European public space agencies: The need for a three-dimensional project management office","authors":"Chiara Maria Cocchiara ,&nbsp;Giovanna Lo Nigro ,&nbsp;Paolo Roma ,&nbsp;Antonio Ragusa","doi":"10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101639","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101639","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Space agencies are continuously developing new space missions, each of which undergoes a long development cycle, from the feasibility study to routine operations and disposal, as per the European Cooperation for Space Standardization (ECSS), the body responsible for developing and maintaining a set of standards for the space industry in Europe. Each mission is a stand-alone project, where the development cycle starts every time from scratch, with new resources, technologies, and requirements, applying the same (tailored) standards, but with limited usage of lessons learnt from earlier or parallel projects. In this article, we analyse typical project management and knowledge management approaches adopted by public space agencies, making use of a relevant case study in Europe. From the results of our case study analysis, we propose a three-dimensional Project Management Office (PMO) governance, explaining how this novel approach helps address limitations and challenges of the current approaches when dealing with multiple complex projects, such as space missions. With the PMO defined as an organisational body or entity assigned various responsibilities, the authors focus on three specific areas, namely, Strategy, Resources, and Knowledge, as three key drivers that can improve the current management of projects of the organization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45924,"journal":{"name":"Space Policy","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 101639"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143148490","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What is an appropriate investment hurdle rate for commercial space resource development projects?","authors":"Ben McKeown ,&nbsp;Jeff Coulton ,&nbsp;Serkan Saydam ,&nbsp;Andrew G. Dempster","doi":"10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101630","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101630","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article sets out to identify an appropriate hurdle rate range for commercial space resource development projects, should such an industry eventuate. There has been little consistency in the use of hurdle rates and discount rates in the evaluation of space resource projects proposed to date. The article uses two approaches to determine an appropriate hurdle rate for the economic evaluation of such projects. Firstly, the article reviews hurdle rate usage in three industries with parallels to a potential space resource industry – the mining industry, the oil &amp; gas industry, and the aerospace industry. The venture capital sector is also considered. The article finds that there is limited direct reference to the hurdle rates used in these industries and therefore uses expected project IRR and corporate Cashflow Return on Investment (CFROI) as proxies to quantify hurdle rates in each industry. Secondly, the article develops a Risk Build Up Method (RBUM) to determine appropriate hurdle rates for hypothetical commercial space resource development projects by quantifying the potential commercial risk to which such projects could be exposed. The RBUM process correlates a commercial risk score quantified on a project by project basis with a hurdle rate risk premium scale to determine an appropriate hurdle rate for such projects. Finally, the article discusses discount rate treatment in the analogue industries, with a view to proposing a consistent approach to the use of discount rates in a potential space resources industry. The article finds that hurdle rates in the range of 25% could be appropriate for potential commercial space resource development projects, depending on the perceived risk of the project, and assuming a suitable legal/regulatory regime is in place. This hurdle rate range and the RBUM process could evolve over time should such an industry eventuate and ultimately mature. The article also proposes that a ‘standard’ industry discount rate of 10% be utilised in order to facilitate the comparison of project to project valuations, based on the discount rate convention for reporting requirements in the US oil &amp; gas industry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45924,"journal":{"name":"Space Policy","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 101630"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141047413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Normal accident theory and learning from major accidents at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)","authors":"Leo Tasca","doi":"10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101653","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101653","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A review of NASA's accident history through the lens of Normal Accident Theory (NAT) offers insights into the prospects for safety during the Artemis Program. NAT is applied to NASA's four major human spaceflight accidents: the Apollo launch pad fire, Apollo 13, Challenger and Columbia. NAT predicts that in the complex and tightly coupled systems used for human spaceflight, an accident type known as the “normal accident”, is inevitable. These accidents are attributable to hidden system interactions that overwhelm the cognitive abilities of human operators and, thereby, escape detection. A review of the four official accident reports and supporting secondary analyses suggests NASA has had one such accident: Apollo 13. It was also the only major accident without injury and a successful recovery effort. NAT would categorize the other three as component failure accidents. Unlike normal accidents, component failure accidents are not inevitable. They stem from an organization's failure to appropriately monitor, assess and mitigate the risk associated with a faulty component. In such cases, NAT would ask if production pressures, often rooted in scheduling and resource constraints, were a factor.</div><div>Production pressures are ultimately imposed on organizations through the exercise of power. These pressures impede an organization's ability to adequately assess risk and increase the likelihood of component failure accidents. The substantial organizational literature on NASA's human spaceflight accidents has yielded potential remedies to help mitigate the risks associated with production pressure. This paper discusses these remedies and their potential safety benefits. It also proposes a modification to a safety governance mechanism recommended by the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB). The resulting changes could help NASA, and other organizations administering high risk technologies, further improve safety.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45924,"journal":{"name":"Space Policy","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 101653"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143148491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Middle East space race? Motivations, trajectories, and regional politics","authors":"Lawrence Rubin","doi":"10.1016/j.spacepol.2023.101608","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.spacepol.2023.101608","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, the Middle East has witnessed a tremendous growth in commercial, civil, and military space activities. For a region known for ethno-religious conflict and vast energy resources, what has motivated the birth and growth of these programs? To what extent do regional politics shape the development and trajectory of space programs? Is there a Middle East space race? This paper surveys the development of the Israeli, Egyptian, and the Emirati space programs to illustrate the extent to which the trajectories of their space programs are related to regional politics. These cases illustrate how a variety of regional political considerations related to security, prestige and economic development have and may continue to shape their space programs. For example, Israel developed its space program for national security reasons and focused its efforts on intelligence and reconnaissance. It has become a world leader in small-satellites because geopolitical realties have forced them to focus on less efficient launches with smaller payloads. Egypt established its program for economic development and to acquire status by claiming leadership in its peer-group of African nations. The U.A.E.’s ambitions in space are motivated by a vital need for economic diversification, driven by large-scale development plans, and by a desire to acquire prestige. This prestige is associated with space leadership at the regional as well as the international level, which Emiratis hope will inspire a STEM oriented, knowledge-based economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45924,"journal":{"name":"Space Policy","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101608"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139639593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The transformation of India's space policy: From space for development to the pursuit of security and prestige","authors":"Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan ,&nbsp;Dimitrios Stroikos","doi":"10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101633","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101633","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article explores the transformation of India's space policy from a focus on space for development to the pursuit of security and prestige. India's early space programme was largely defined by a developmental rationale, aimed at addressing socio-economic challenges through space technology and applications. However, in recent years, India's space policy has undergone a significant change, as the country tries to leverage its space capabilities for strategic objectives, including enhancing its national security, achieving greater status in the global space order, and projecting its great power aspirations. This article offers a comprehensive overview of India's space programme by highlighting the country's high-profile exploration projects, the involvement of the private sector, and the use of space technology as a foreign policy tool and a source of soft power. It also analyses changing perceptions of the country's strategic environment and evolving geopolitical dynamics that have resulted in a reorientation towards the military uses of space. It also assesses the implications of this transformation for India's space programme, its relations with other space actors, and the global governance of outer space.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45924,"journal":{"name":"Space Policy","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101633"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141042177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}