{"title":"Generational economic dependency in aging Europe: Contribution of education and population changes","authors":"Elisenda Rentería , Guadalupe Souto , Tanja Istenič , Jože Sambt","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100485","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100485","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Europe is experiencing the challenges of aging. However, different evolutions of their dependency ratios are observed, stimulated in many cases by the baby boom generation entering retirement ages. Simultaneously, a huge educational expansion also started in the second half of the 20th century, but at different speeds and levels. Education has been pointed out as a possible solution to offset the impact of aging on the sustainability of the welfare state, but, is this true for all European countries? Have all of them taken advantage of previous lower demographic dependency ratios? In this paper, we try to answer these questions by estimating the change in demographic dependency from an economic perspective considering the implications of a changing educational composition. We combine economic profiles of production and consumption by age and educational level (obtained using the National Transfer Accounts methodology) and population projections by level of education to estimate the Economic Support Ratio (<em>ESR)</em> growth rates from 1950 to 2080 for 19 European countries. Results show that the positive <em>ESR</em><span> since 1970 for a majority of countries is, in most cases, driven by an universal educational expansion, as the expected positive effect of the post-war baby boom is not observed in all countries. Around 2010–15, the ESR growth turns negative in many countries, as population aging cannot be offset anymore by on-going educational increases. In the future, the age effect will be the main driver of the ESR evolution due to the strong aging process, and an educational expansion almost fulfilled.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100485"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135715387","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Age and education effects in Singapore’s demographic dividend 1970–2020","authors":"Eddie Choo, Christopher Gee","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100482","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100482","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Singapore had experienced rapid GDP growth from the period of 1970-2020. This work is adds to the overall contribution in studies understanding the contribution of age and education effects in the demographic dividend for countries, in this case – for a small, rapidly-developing country in Asia that had achieved high-income status. Following Rentería et. al. (2016), we use the Das Gupta decomposition technique to decompose Singapore’s demographic dividend to the respective age effect and education effect. We do this, having derived labour income and consumption profiles by age and education attainment, using National Transfer Account (NTA) methodology. We find that for Singapore the education effect was larger than the age effect for the entire period, driven by the education effect on labour income. These findings are comparable to Rentería et. al. (2016) for Mexico and Spain where the education effect were also larger than the age effect. Understanding the contributions of age and education effects on the economic support ratio will have policy implications as Singapore continues to age rapidly. This work also adds to the perspective on the importance of building up human capital in sustaining the demographic dividend.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100482"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135614447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The role of educational attainment in production and transfers in the form of unpaid household work","authors":"Ema Kelin , Tanja Istenič , Jože Sambt","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100481","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100481","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The paper analyses the role of educational level in unpaid household work by breaking down the age profiles of production and transfers by three educational levels: low, medium, and high. The age profiles of the production and transfers of unpaid household work are presented for eight EU countries: Austria, Bulgaria, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Slovenia, and Spain. Results show that time spent on housework peaks around the retirement age. At this point, individuals retire and have more time available for housework. However, the educational level does not have a large impact on men’s housework production levels, but it has it on the levels of women’s housework production. The results further show that highly educated women tend to spend the least time on housework production over the life cycle. On the other hand, men and women with high levels of education spend the most time on childcare, while both men and women with low levels of education spend the least on it: about two and a half times less time than the highly educated. Women are still the main providers of childcare and also the main transfer givers of unpaid household work over the life cycle. On the other hand, men of all educational levels are transfer recipients for most of the life cycle. However, highly educated men give highest transfers during their working ages in most of the countries analysed, while highly educated women transfer slightly less of unpaid household work than women of other educational levels.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100481"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212828X23000415/pdfft?md5=765de879bd6cacd10ab03b2fc19b4f72&pid=1-s2.0-S2212828X23000415-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91992730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Socioeconomic inequalities in national transfers accounts in Ecuador 2006 and 2011: Did a new socialist government make a difference?","authors":"Luis Rosero-Bixby","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100483","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100483","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Latin America is the least egalitarian region in the world. A neo-socialist government in Ecuador prioritized the reduction of socioeconomic status (SES) inequalities. The generational economy is a framework to understand the economic lifecycle and to link demographic change with people's well-being. This article aims to uncover SES-driven inequalities in the generational economy of Ecuador: did public transfers modify them from 2006 to 2011? National transfer accounts (NTA) were disaggregated by SES quartiles, which were defined by the highest level of education attainment in each household. The accounts within SES quartiles were estimated using standard NTA methods. A pseudo-Gini coefficient summarized SES-driven inequalities by age and generational account. This secondary analysis was based on existing micro databases from the Ecuadorian NTA.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>National averages do not represent well the generational economy of the low-SES population. The usual gradient of higher economic figures in higher SES strata shows up in almost all NTAs with the notable exceptions of reversal (progressive) gradients in conditional public cash transfers to low-SES households and public education at the elementary school level. Retirement pensions are extremely regressive public transfers, benefiting mostly high-SES strata.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>Population aging might worsen the high levels of inequality already existing in Ecuador and Latin America. Some progressive public policies worked well to reduce inequality in Ecuador.</p></div><div><h3>Contribution</h3><p>This article demonstrates the importance of uncovering SES-driven inequalities existing in NTAs and their change through the lifecycle. It also identifies public policies that ameliorated inequality as well as public transfers that are regressive.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100483"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135509694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Regional institutional quality and territorial equity in LTC provision","authors":"Anna Marenzi , Dino Rizzi , Michele Zanette , Francesca Zantomio","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100477","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100477","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We show how regional governments affect the appropriate – in terms of territorial equity – assignment of a national LTC benefit. We analyse the case of Italy, featuring a three-layers setting, where eligibility criteria are defined by the central government (which bears the fiscal cost of transfers), but the assignment decision is taken by regional medical commissions, while applications are activated by individual potential beneficiaries. Combining administrative and survey data, and accounting for regional variation in eligibility prevalence, we document large territorial disparities in need-adjusted benefit assignment. We investigate the determinants of such disparities both in terms of individuals’ differential propensity to claim, and of regional discretionary behaviour, as shaped by the underlying quality of regional institutions. While several data limitations recommend caution, the empirical results suggest – in line with our conceptual framework – that regional discretion plays a role in LTC provision: in more detail, lower regional institutional quality appears related to more opportunistic benefit adjudication decisions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100477"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50192296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Mortality differentials, the racial and ethnic retirement wealth gap, and the COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"Edward N. Wolff","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100478","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100478","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Using the Survey of Consumer Finances<span>, I find that the Black/white gap in standard net worth widened from 1989 to 2019 but narrowed between Hispanics and (non-Hispanic) whites. When the definition of wealth is expanded to incorporate Social Security and defined benefit pension wealth (both the discounted sum of future benefits) to create augmented wealth, the wealth gap is sharply reduced, especially for median wealth. The Black/white and Hispanic/white disparity in Social Security wealth lessened considerably over 1989–2019. In contrast, the Black/white ratio of mean augmented wealth showed no change, though the ratio of median augmented wealth progressed. The Hispanic/white ratio of both mean and median augmented wealth advanced as well. The COVID-19 Pandemic struck in 2020 and hit the minority community much harder than whites in terms of mortality rates. Besides claiming over a million lives overall, it lopped off 4.7 percent of Social Security wealth among whites, 11.5 percent among Blacks, and 13.1 percent among Hispanics. As a result, while mean augmented wealth dipped only 1.2 percent among whites, it fell 6.7 percent among Black households and 7.3 percent among Hispanics. The effect was even stronger on median values – declines of a 2.6, 9.3 and 12.1 percent, respectively.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100478"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50192298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Feifan Fang , Yinyu Zhao , Zemiao Xi , Xinru Han , Yuchun Zhu
{"title":"The impact of famine experience on middle-aged and elderly individuals’ food consumption: Evidence from China","authors":"Feifan Fang , Yinyu Zhao , Zemiao Xi , Xinru Han , Yuchun Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100472","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100472","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>People’s behaviors are influenced by past experiences. Against the background of the famine that occurred in China from 1959 to 1961 and based on China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) data from 2004 to 2011, we take advantage of both temporal and geographic variations in famine intensity to explore the long-term effects of famine experience on food consumption and examine the heterogeneous effecs across age cohorts by constructing a continuous difference-in-differences (DID) estimator. We find that famine experience affects people’s food consumption behavior in the long term. Compared with the group that did not experience the famine, the consumption of staple foods increased while the consumption of meat and vegetables decreased for the group with famine experience, and this effect was heterogeneous across age cohorts and was most significant for the group that experienced famine in their 30 s. The effect of famine experience on food consumption was significantly heterogeneous across regions, household sizes, and income groups. The findings of this paper contribute to a better understanding of the long-term effects of famine experience on food consumption and provide a basis for improving the dietary quality of older adults.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100472"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50192295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does human capital compensate for population decline?","authors":"M. Siskova , M. Kuhn , K. Prettner , A. Prskawetz","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100469","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100469","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Fertility rates have been falling persistently over the past 50 years in most rich countries. Simultaneously, the trend of outward migration from poorer to richer countries has been steady. These two forces contributed to population aging, and – in an increasing number of countries – even to population decline. In this paper, we quantify the effect of decreasing fertility on the aggregate human capital stock. In doing so we take into account that parents with fewer children may raise investments in their children’s education and health. We find that the human capital impact of declining fertility is partly compensated through such responses when including the full set of countries in our regressions. For the subset of countries that experience population decline, the compensatory effect is weaker and, in many specifications, even insignificant.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100469"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42829900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A distributive analysis using Peru’s National Transfer Accounts","authors":"Javier Olivera","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100480","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100480","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>National Transfer Accounts (NTAs) provide insights into the effects of ageing on various forms of intergenerational transfers. When these accounts are disaggregated by socioeconomic status (SES) and calculated for at least two different time periods, they offer a powerful tool for understanding changes in economic inequality across age groups and over time. This paper illustrates the application of some standard distributional analysis tools using NTAs, specifically focusing on the case of Peru for 2007 and 2019. The main findings suggest that younger individuals have been the relative “winners” from Peru’s sustained economic growth over the past two decades. Additionally, the equalizing power of tertiary education has increased during this period, i.e., a greater prevalence of tertiary education reduces inequality. However, a concerning observation is the deterioration of living conditions among older and less educated individuals.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100480"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91992732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Spending trajectories after age 65 variation by initial wealth","authors":"Michael D. Hurd, Susann Rohwedder","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100468","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100468","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>There has been extensive research on the importance of saving for retirement and on tools to support the accumulation of retirement wealth. Much less attention has been paid to the decumulation phase, that is, the spending down of wealth following retirement. Understanding the decumulation phase requires information about the spending patterns of older households and how those patterns evolve with age. This study uses comprehensive longitudinal data on total household spending from a survey that is representative of the older U.S. population to estimate the trajectories of spending after age 65. Based on data spanning the period 2005–2019, real spending declined for both single and coupled households after age 65 at annual rates of about 1.7 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively. Stratification by wealth holdings observed at or closely following age 65 showed sizeable variation in spending levels by wealth quartile, but little variation in rates of change in spending. The fact that spending declines broadly, including among those in the highest wealth quartile, suggests that the decline may not be related to economic position. This view is supported by an analysis of budget shares which show increases with age in the budget share for gifts and donations which suggests that economic position on average does not deteriorate with age, even as spending declines.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100468"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50192309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}