老龄化、教育和其他对发展中国家白银红利的影响:来自巴西的证据

IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY
Anderson Rocha de Jesus Fernandes , Bernardo Lanza Queiroz
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引用次数: 0

摘要

人口老龄化增加了依赖程度,并可能影响从工作生活到退休生活的过渡。人口结构的变化具有重要的经济影响,在分析受教育程度更高的老年劳动力的影响时,这可能是积极的,但也可能影响家庭和政府。在高度不平等的背景下,考虑年龄和教育构成如何相互关联是很重要的。在本文中,我们分析了巴西老龄化过程的经济后果,考虑到教育改善的作用和该国白银红利构成的可能性。基于45岁及以上人口的劳动力供给和劳动收入的决定因素,我们使用了一系列的模拟模型来研究劳动力教育构成变化的影响。我们的模拟表明,在教育水平较高、劳动力市场稳定(高地位活动和非正式性减少)和退休规则变化(特别是最低年龄的设定)的情况下,教育、劳动力供给和劳动收入之间的正相关关系更为明显。这种情况将增加老年工人的人数并提高生产率,从而为巴西在数量和质量上发展白银红利创造适当条件。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Aging, education and some other implications for the silver dividend in developing countries: Evidence from Brazil

Population aging increases dependency levels and can influence the transition from working life to retirement. Changes in population structure have important economic effects, which can be positive when analyzing the impacts of a more educated older labor force but could also impact families and governments. It is important to consider how age and education composition are associated with each other in contexts marked by high levels of inequality. In this paper, we analyze the economic consequences of the aging process in Brazil considering the role of improvements in education and the possibility of the constitution of a silver dividend in the country. We use a series of simulation models, based on the determinants of labor supply and labor income of people aged 45 years and over, to investigate the impacts of changes in the educational composition of the labor force. Our simulations show that the positive association between education, labor supply, and labor income would be more pronounced in scenarios of higher levels of education, labor market stability (high status activities and informality reduction), and changes in retirement rules, specifically the establishment of minimum ages. Such a context would increase the number of older workers and improve productivity, allowing appropriate conditions for the development of a silver dividend in Brazil in a quantitative and a qualitative way.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
4.50%
发文量
46
审稿时长
49 days
期刊介绍: The Journal of the Economics of Ageing (JEoA) is an international academic journal that publishes original theoretical and empirical research dealing with the interaction between demographic change and the economy. JEoA encompasses both microeconomic and macroeconomic perspectives and offers a platform for the discussion of topics including labour, health, and family economics, social security, income distribution, social mobility, immigration, productivity, structural change, economic growth and development. JEoA also solicits papers that have a policy focus.
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