Journal of the Economics of Ageing最新文献_第8页

Regressivity in public pension systems: The case of Peru 公共养老金制度的倒退：秘鲁案例

IF 1.9 3区经济学

Journal of the Economics of Ageing Pub Date : 2024-10-01 Epub Date: 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2024.100532

José A. Valderrama

引用次数: 0

How many people will live and die with serious illness in Ireland to 2040? Estimated needs and costs using microsimulation 到 2040 年，爱尔兰将有多少人死于重病？利用微观模拟估计需求和成本

IF 1.9 3区经济学

Journal of the Economics of Ageing Pub Date : 2024-10-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2024.100528

Peter May , Charles Normand , Samantha Smith , Frank Moriarty , Mark Ward , Karen Ryan , Bridget M. Johnston , Roman Romero-Ortuno , Rose Anne Kenny , R. Sean Morrison , Bryan Tysinger

{"title":"How many people will live and die with serious illness in Ireland to 2040? Estimated needs and costs using microsimulation","authors":"Peter May , Charles Normand , Samantha Smith , Frank Moriarty , Mark Ward , Karen Ryan , Bridget M. Johnston , Roman Romero-Ortuno , Rose Anne Kenny , R. Sean Morrison , Bryan Tysinger","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2024.100528","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2024.100528","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>As populations age, more people worldwide will live and die with serious illness like cancer, heart disease and dementia. Prior projections of serious illness prevalence and end-of-life care needs have typically used static population-level methods. We estimated future disease prevalence and healthcare costs by applying dynamic microsimulation models to high-quality individual-level panel data on older adults (aged 50 + ) in Ireland. We estimated that the number of people living and dying with serious illness will increase approximately 70 % over 20 years. Per-capita annual costs both at end of life and not at end of life increase substantially due to ageing populations and growing complexity. Total health system expenditures on care for people with serious illness are projected to double before accounting for rising cost of inputs in real terms. Decomposition of these estimates suggests that 39 % of additional costs are accounted for by rising absolute numbers of older people, 37 % by changing age distribution and growing life expectancy, and 23 % due to rising individual complexity including morbidity and functional limitations. Our results and methods will be of interest to other countries planning for the future population health needs, and formidable health system resources associated with these needs, in the coming years.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article 100528"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212828X24000288/pdfft?md5=f462efa742f6208f5e82dc72ecad68ee&pid=1-s2.0-S2212828X24000288-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142050250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

China’s public long-term care insurance and risky asset allocation among elderly households 中国公共长期护理保险与老年家庭的风险资产配置

IF 1.9 3区经济学

Journal of the Economics of Ageing Pub Date : 2024-10-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2024.100531

Min He , Lin Lin

{"title":"China’s public long-term care insurance and risky asset allocation among elderly households","authors":"Min He , Lin Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2024.100531","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2024.100531","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>China’s elderly households are characterized by higher holdings of cash and cash equivalents and lower holdings of stocks and bonds in their financial portfolios. We utilize the public Long-term Care Insurance (LTCI) reform and data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) to examine how LTCI coverage affects risky asset holdings among newly insured elderly households. Employing a difference-in-differences methodology, our findings reveal that LTCI significantly increases the share of risky assets in the financial portfolios of older families. The increased preference for risky assets may be a result of a weakening incentive for precautionary savings. Decomposing risky assets into bonds and stocks, we find that the increase in the share of risky assets following the LTCI pilot comes mainly from bond investments rather than stocks, which indicates that LTCI has a limited effect on risk asset holdings among the Chinese elderly. Our study contributes to understanding the economic impacts of China’s public LTCI by showing that LTCI may lead to changes in asset allocation strategies among elderly households.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article 100531"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142122265","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The impact of retirement on health: Empirical evidence from the change in public pensionable age in Japan 退休对健康的影响：日本公共养老金领取年龄变化的经验证据

IF 2.2 3区经济学

Journal of the Economics of Ageing Pub Date : 2024-06-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2024.100513

Fengming Chen , Midori Wakabayashi , Michio Yuda

{"title":"The impact of retirement on health: Empirical evidence from the change in public pensionable age in Japan","authors":"Fengming Chen , Midori Wakabayashi , Michio Yuda","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2024.100513","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2024.100513","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The balance between maintaining and enhancing the health, quality of life, and healthy life expectancy of the elderly and their corresponding social costs, including medical and long-term care expenses, is an important policy issue in the context of Japan’s super-aging society. In this paper, we employ individual panel data from the four waves of the <em>Japanese Study of Aging and Retirement</em> to examine how retirement from the labor market affects the health of elderly males. Numerous empirical studies have shown mixed results concerning the causal effect of retirement on health through diverse and complex mechanisms. However, we present several new insights by focusing on the policy change in 2000 of raising the pensionable age for the earnings-related public pension system which completely eliminates pension income after the statutory retirement age for particular cohorts. Our fixed-effects instrumental variable estimation shows that retirement significantly improves oral function and mental health, but it also makes male retirees more susceptible to lifestyle-related diseases. Supplemental results further suggest that a significant increase in dental care utilization would help improve post-retirement oral function.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"28 ","pages":"Article 100513"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212828X24000136/pdfft?md5=65e90933fc1d6d734fa07219b5c83213&pid=1-s2.0-S2212828X24000136-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140282729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Part-time employment opportunities and labour supply of older workers 兼职就业机会和老年工人的劳动力供应

IF 2.2 3区经济学

Journal of the Economics of Ageing Pub Date : 2024-06-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2024.100504

Maciej Albinowski

引用次数: 0

The impact of ageing on economic dependency in Slovakia: An application of the Slovak national transfer accounts 斯洛伐克老龄化对经济依赖性的影响：斯洛伐克国民转账账户的应用

IF 2.2 3区经济学

Journal of the Economics of Ageing Pub Date : 2024-06-01 Epub Date: 2024-05-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2024.100516

Štefan Domonkos , Tomáš Domonkos , Miroslava Jánošová

{"title":"The impact of ageing on economic dependency in Slovakia: An application of the Slovak national transfer accounts","authors":"Štefan Domonkos , Tomáš Domonkos , Miroslava Jánošová","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2024.100516","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2024.100516","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The intergenerational transfer of resources is gaining importance across countries facing population ageing. This paper investigates the economic and budgetary consequences of ageing in the Slovak Republic, which is projected to be one of the fastest ageing polities of the European Union. Using dependency and support indicators derived from the National Transfer Accounts, the quantitative analysis shows how this demographic development impacts aggregate labour income, consumption, taxes and public and private transfers. For instance, the transfer weighted public sector dependency ratio increases by 117 %, from 1.12 in 2015 to 2.43 in 2060. While increasing the retirement age may dampen the negative economic effect of demographic ageing, it cannot resolve the ensuing imbalance in labour income and consumption on its own. Moreover, the potential positive effect of higher fertility is preceded by an increase in consumption by the economically inactive Youth, which results in a deteriorating balance of private transfers. This trade-off is often overlooked in the scholarly debate. A combination of measures composed of increased labour productivity and lower consumption appears the most likely solution to the problem of growing imbalance between aggregate labour income and consumption.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"28 ","pages":"Article 100516"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141142242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Population ageing and public finance burden of dementia: Micro-simulations evaluating risk factors, treatments and comorbidities in Luxembourg 人口老龄化与痴呆症的公共财政负担：评估卢森堡风险因素、治疗和并发症的微观模拟

IF 2.2 3区经济学

Journal of the Economics of Ageing Pub Date : 2024-06-01 Epub Date: 2024-05-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2024.100517

María Noel Pi Alperin , Magali Perquin , Gastón A. Giordana

{"title":"Population ageing and public finance burden of dementia: Micro-simulations evaluating risk factors, treatments and comorbidities in Luxembourg","authors":"María Noel Pi Alperin , Magali Perquin , Gastón A. Giordana","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2024.100517","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2024.100517","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper uses long-term population projections to study the evolution of dementia in Luxembourg through 2070, as well as its impact on public expenditure through healthcare and long-term care. We extend a standard micro-simulation model on health outcomes by adding an algorithm to identify individuals suffering from dementia. This allows us to simulate dementia prevalence among individuals aged 50 and more in several scenarios incorporating alternative hypotheses about risk factors, new treatments and comorbidities (including long-run effects of COVID-19). Public health policies reducing stroke and hypertension risk could lower dementia prevalence by 17% and public expenditure on healthcare for dementia patients by a similar amount. A new treatment extending the mild dementia phase could nearly double prevalence and possibly triple the associated healthcare costs. Finally, past exposure to COVID-19 could raise prevalence by 12% to 24% in the medium term and public expenditure on dementia healthcare by 6% to 12%. Public expenditure on long-term care for dementia patients would increase even more, generally doubling by 2070.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"28 ","pages":"Article 100517"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141095661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Retirement and healthcare utilization: Evidence from pension eligibility ages in South Korea 退休与医疗保健的使用：韩国养老金领取资格年龄的证据

IF 2.2 3区经济学

Journal of the Economics of Ageing Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Epub Date: 2023-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100498

Byeung-Kuk Oh

引用次数: 0

Intergenerational time transfer, retirement and public pensions 代际时间转移、退休和公共养老金

IF 2.2 3区经济学

Journal of the Economics of Ageing Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Epub Date: 2024-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2024.100502

Quynh-Nga Nguyen

{"title":"Intergenerational time transfer, retirement and public pensions","authors":"Quynh-Nga Nguyen","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2024.100502","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2024.100502","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper develops an overlapping generations model with intergenerational transfer of time in the form of grandparenting and pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system. The introduction of time transfer allows taking into account child care responsibilities. Under the situation of population ageing<span>, a fall in the fertility rate leads to not only a reduction in contributions to the pension system but also lower childcare responsibilities that increase life-cycle income. Hence, the impacts of demographic changes on old labour decisions and pensions need to be re-examined. I find that in countries with low fertility rates and small pension systems, a fall in fertility rate reduces working time in old age. Consequently, population ageing due to a lower fertility rate always decreases pensions. On the other hand, for countries with high fertility rates and countries with low fertility rates but large pension systems, a decrease in fertility rate reduces retirement age. In these countries, pensions will increase if retirement is elastic to changes in fertility. In all cases, longer life expectancy increases pensions if retirement is relatively inelastic to changes in longevity.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100502"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139652820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Age and education effects in Singapore’s demographic dividend 1970–2020 1970-2020年新加坡人口红利的年龄和教育效应

IF 2.2 3区经济学

Journal of the Economics of Ageing Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Epub Date: 2023-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100482

Eddie Choo, Christopher Gee

{"title":"Age and education effects in Singapore’s demographic dividend 1970–2020","authors":"Eddie Choo, Christopher Gee","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100482","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100482","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Singapore had experienced rapid GDP growth from the period of 1970-2020. This work is adds to the overall contribution in studies understanding the contribution of age and education effects in the demographic dividend for countries, in this case – for a small, rapidly-developing country in Asia that had achieved high-income status. Following Rentería et. al. (2016), we use the Das Gupta decomposition technique to decompose Singapore’s demographic dividend to the respective age effect and education effect. We do this, having derived labour income and consumption profiles by age and education attainment, using National Transfer Account (NTA) methodology. We find that for Singapore the education effect was larger than the age effect for the entire period, driven by the education effect on labour income. These findings are comparable to Rentería et. al. (2016) for Mexico and Spain where the education effect were also larger than the age effect. Understanding the contributions of age and education effects on the economic support ratio will have policy implications as Singapore continues to age rapidly. This work also adds to the perspective on the importance of building up human capital in sustaining the demographic dividend.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100482"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135614447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0