Journal of the Economics of Ageing最新文献

The macroeconomic impact of chronic disease in the United Kingdom 英国慢性病的宏观经济影响

IF 1.9 3区经济学

Journal of the Economics of Ageing Pub Date : 2025-06-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100590

Yannick Schindler , Andrew J. Scott

{"title":"The macroeconomic impact of chronic disease in the United Kingdom","authors":"Yannick Schindler , Andrew J. Scott","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100590","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100590","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the macroeconomic impact of chronic disease in the United Kingdom (UK). We use individual-level data to estimate how diagnoses of six major diseases affect labor market transitions and combine these with a tractable growth model with age-specific productivity and labor force participation to quantify the impact of chronic disease on UK economic growth. Using a novel machine learning approach to classify National Health Service (NHS) cost data, we also provide new estimates of disease-specific treatment costs. Our findings indicate that a 20% reduction in disease incidence would increase annual GDP by 0.99% after five years and 1.51% after ten years. Most of the gains are due to increased participation in the labor force, especially among workers aged 50 to 65 years. Reductions in mental health conditions and musculoskeletal conditions contribute the most to these effects. Our analysis points to three important features of preventative health policies: (1) the potential welfare gains are substantial and manifest themselves in terms of both improved population health and increased output growth, (2) only around 40% of long-term effects appear after five years, and (3) the 50–65 age group experiences the largest labor force participation gains. This last feature is due to two factors: improved health at those ages prevents transitions into health-related inactivity and a larger share of workers reaches this age band as a result of reduced transitions into inactivity at earlier ages. This compounding effect underscores the importance of targeting prevention efforts at earlier ages.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article 100590"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144670667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Navigating demographic challenges: The impact of increasing social contribution rates on tax revenue and distribution 应对人口挑战：提高社会贡献率对税收收入和税收分配的影响

IF 1.9 3区经济学

Journal of the Economics of Ageing Pub Date : 2025-06-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100593

Philipp Toussaint, Sebastian Schultis, Stefan Seuffert

{"title":"Navigating demographic challenges: The impact of increasing social contribution rates on tax revenue and distribution","authors":"Philipp Toussaint, Sebastian Schultis, Stefan Seuffert","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100593","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100593","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The demographic transition poses significant fiscal challenges to pay-as-you-go social security systems, particularly in ageing societies like Germany. While extensive research has analyzed the direct effects of demographic change on rising contribution rates, the secondary effects of the income tax system that arise from the deductibility of contributions have received little attention. This study addresses this gap by examining how the tax treatment of social security contributions influences distribution of the demographic burden. Based on detailed microdata from the German Income and Expenditure Survey (EVS) and official income tax statistics, we apply a generational accounting framework to analyze intergenerational redistribution effects. As a secondary finding, we also identify intragenerational redistribution resulting from the tax deductibility of proportional social security contributions under a progressive income tax schedule. Our findings reveal that future generations are disproportionately affected by declining income tax revenues, while current generations benefit from an average tax relief of 47 percent. Moreover, a regressive burden distribution is indicated: individuals in the lowest income quintile face an effective burden of 91 percent, as compared to 62 percent in the top quintile. These results underscore the importance of accounting for indirect tax effects when evaluating the long-term sustainability and equity of social insurance reforms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article 100593"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144516999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Demographic change, firm costs, and digital transformation 人口变化、企业成本和数字化转型

IF 1.9 3区经济学

Journal of the Economics of Ageing Pub Date : 2025-06-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100592

Gang Qiao , Ruipeng Tan

引用次数: 0

Long-run patterns in the spousal correlation of lifespan 配偶寿命相关性的长期模式

IF 1.9 3区经济学

Journal of the Economics of Ageing Pub Date : 2025-06-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100588

Jacob Hutchings , Adriana Lleras-Muney , Joshua Nicholls , Joseph Price , Sven E Wilson

{"title":"Long-run patterns in the spousal correlation of lifespan","authors":"Jacob Hutchings , Adriana Lleras-Muney , Joshua Nicholls , Joseph Price , Sven E Wilson","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100588","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100588","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Abundant research has demonstrated that substantial spousal concordance in health exists across multiple measures and populations and that the magnitude of this association is similar to spousal correlations in education and socioeconomic status. This strong spousal concordance in health results from both sorting in the marriage market and from behavioral and environmental risk factors shared by the couple. In this paper we test the hypothesis that the spousal correlation in lifespan–a summary measure of health–is similarly concordant. We create a new data set to investigate this hypothesis. We link about 15 million couples drawn from the US censuses of 1880–1940 to genealogical data available in family trees to obtain lifespan information for spouses. We document spousal correlations across time and compare spousal correlations in lifespan to opposite-gender sibling correlations in lifespan using a sample of 26 million opposite-gender sibling pairs. Surprisingly, and in contrast to what other health measures show, we find that the spousal lifespan correlation (0.063) is relatively small, though only a little smaller than the sibling correlation (0.076), which captures both genetic and early life environmental risk factors. However, we also find that the spousal correlation roughly doubles in size across cohorts (from around 0.05 for the 1880 birth cohort to 0.10 for the 1920 birth cohort). The fact that the spousal and sibling correlation track each other closely across cohorts suggests a growing importance of local risk factors that are shared by both spouses and siblings in determining lifespan, an interpretation that is also consistent with our other findings which suggest that the duration of marriage also increases spousal correlations. For the last decade, however, the growth in spousal correlation outpaces that of siblings, suggesting either increased assortative mating or an increase in the relative importance of couple-specific risk factors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article 100588"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144366312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

When wealth hurts: Inheritances and the health of older Europeans 财富伤害：遗产和欧洲老年人的健康

IF 1.9 3区经济学

Journal of the Economics of Ageing Pub Date : 2025-06-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100591

Ignacio Belloc , José Alberto Molina , Jorge Velilla

引用次数: 0

Introduction to this Special Issue: The Economics of Ageing 本期特刊简介：老龄化经济学

IF 1.9 3区经济学

Journal of the Economics of Ageing Pub Date : 2025-06-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100579

David E. Bloom , Andrew J. Scott

引用次数: 0

Exclusion from a ‘mandatory’ pension scheme: Late-stage dropouts from the National Pension System in South Korea 被排除在“强制性”养老金计划之外：韩国国家养老金制度的晚期退出者

IF 1.9 3区经济学

Journal of the Economics of Ageing Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100578

Jongseok Oh , Seho Son , Kun Lee

{"title":"Exclusion from a ‘mandatory’ pension scheme: Late-stage dropouts from the National Pension System in South Korea","authors":"Jongseok Oh , Seho Son , Kun Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100578","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100578","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, we investigate an underexplored mechanism through which a mandatory pension scheme effectively excludes low-status older adults. We examine the patterns of individuals dropping out from the National Pension System just before the eligibility age, the largest public pension scheme in South Korea. We analyze administrative pension insurance data on individuals eligible for a lump-sum refund of lifetime contributions at age 60 due to insufficient contribution records – a negatively selected subpopulation. We employ a set of linear probability models with several fixed-effect specifications to investigate individual- and regional-level determinants of late-stage dropout. Results reveal a unique U-shaped relationship between the size of accrued contributions and the probability of dropping out, suggesting that immediate budget constraints could be the primary reason for dropouts among low-status workers. We also find that individuals with unstable labor market histories are more inclined to choose the refund option, while a regional economic decline is associated with an increase in withdrawals. We call for alternative policy approaches to protect the financially vulnerable and provide implications for other pension latecomer countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article 100578"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144189432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Between Beveridge and Bismarck: Preferences for redistribution through public pensions 在贝弗里奇和俾斯麦之间：通过公共养老金进行再分配的偏好

IF 1.9 3区经济学

Journal of the Economics of Ageing Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100570

Friedrich Breyer, Christian Breunig, Mark Kapteina, Guido Schwerdt, Maj-Britt Sterba

引用次数: 0

Biological age across the globe: 1990–2019 全球生物年龄：1990-2019年

IF 1.9 3区经济学

Journal of the Economics of Ageing Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100573

Casper Worm Hansen , Holger Strulik

引用次数: 0

Direct and spillover effects of long-term care insurance on Chinese elderly frailty 长期护理保险对中国老年人脆弱性的直接和溢出效应

IF 1.9 3区经济学

Journal of the Economics of Ageing Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100571

Lin Lin , Min He , Peng Nie

引用次数: 0