Economics of Transportation最新文献

{"title":"Oil price shocks and airlines stock return and volatility – A GFEVD analysis","authors":"Yifei Cai ,&nbsp;Yahua Zhang ,&nbsp;Anming Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100396","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100396","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using the Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (GFEVD) method, this study assesses the effects of oil price shocks on both the return and volatility of aviation stocks. Specifically, we examine how different types of oil supply shocks—such as those related to oil supply, economic activity, oil consumption demand, and oil inventory—impact airline returns and volatility. Our findings indicate that fluctuations in airline returns primarily stem from economic activity shocks. However, the volatility of airlines is influenced by a range of shocks. Lastly, we offer important policy implications tailored for airline managers, market investors, and policymakers to navigate this relationship effectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100396"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143165211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Demand-shock characteristics and pricing behavior: A natural experiment from UEFA Euro 2016","authors":"Claudio A. Piga ,&nbsp;Alberto A. Gaggero ,&nbsp;Marco Alderighi","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100393","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100393","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We consider a multi-period, limited capacity, unsegmented airline pricing model whose solution returns a sequence of increasing prices based on the order of sale. We show that a positive demand shock corresponding to an increase in the arrival rate reduces within-period price dispersion and has a minor impact on the sequence’s maximum prices. Alternatively, upward shifts in customers’ willingness-to-pay lead to higher maximum prices but do not affect within-period price dispersion. Demand shocks are identified in our sample by the draw that created the stage groups for the UEFA Euro 2016 soccer tournament. After the draw, some flights became suitable to transport foreign supporters to the location where matches were scheduled. Consistent with the theory, a different price behavior is observed between UK and continental European routes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100393"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143165212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spread valuation and risk on transport infrastructure loans","authors":"Antonio Lara-Galera,&nbsp;Vicente Alcaraz-Carrillo de Albornoz,&nbsp;Juan Molina-Millán,&nbsp;Belén Muñoz-Medina","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2024.100392","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2024.100392","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>For some time now, public administrations in many countries have been subject to strict budgetary constraints to control the public deficit. The Public Private Partnership (PPP) model in this context is a useful vehicle to develop public infrastructures. Despite its attractiveness and potential, there is an accumulation of evidence that questions this model with different experiences showing that PPPs are relatively risky projects for all participants. This is especially true for financial creditors, who usually lend up to 85% of the funds needed for financing the project.</div><div>The main objective of this research is to develop a methodology for valuing the financial cost of loans in PPP projects for transportation infrastructure, depending on demand risk. This paper proposes the use of option pricing approach to determine the loan spread in PPP transport projects.</div><div>To mitigate the risk faced by project financiers, it would be necessary to guarantee the repayment of the debt service. Given that the project's cash flows are uncertain due to demand risk, the cost associated with this guaranty reflects the risk premium that financiers bear as well as the overall cost of financing.</div><div>This guarantee may be determined as a derivative (an option) of the project traffic.</div><div>To test this methodology, a real regional toll motorway in Spain has been used, comparing the contractual risk premium of the bank loans obtained with the risk premium calculated by the proposed model.</div><div>This research indicates that the spread on concessional loans significantly decreases over time, paralleling the reduction in traffic risk, and is notably higher during the initial years of the project. Furthermore, discrepancies between the projected and actual initial traffic have a substantial impact on the risk assumed by lenders. As limitation of this study, it is important to note that in practice the risk premium incorporates other relevant variables for the project and the industry that are not considered in this study.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100392"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143165306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of numerical platforms on individual choices and social welfare: The case of short-distance carpooling","authors":"Alix Le Goff ,&nbsp;Guillaume Monchambert ,&nbsp;Martin Koning","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2024.100389","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2024.100389","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the effects of carpooling organization on the propensity to carpool. We test whether pre-trip planning and the use of a platform influence the choice of carpooling over driving alone and public transport. In a stated choice experiment, we collected responses from 3600 residents of the Lyon urban area, France. Our econometric results suggest that platforms increase individual willingness to carpool, and that the effect of the platform is stronger for passengers than for drivers. We illustrate these results with a stylized social welfare analysis, which reveals a significant contradiction between what would be needed to make carpooling beneficial from a welfare perspective – passengers should be subsidized – and the current pricing schemes, which subsidize mainly drivers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100389"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143165304","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mode choice inertia and shock: Three months of almost fare-free public transport in Germany","authors":"Maria Fernanda Guajardo Ortega,&nbsp;Heike Link","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2024.100382","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2024.100382","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study analyses travellers’ behavioural responses to two temporal measures implemented by the German government: the reduction in public transport prices, making it almost fare-free, and a decrease in fuel taxes to the minimum level permitted by European law. Based on a panel dataset of GPS-tracked trips collected before and during the price intervention from a representative sample of 276 individuals, with 1650 commuter trips per month. We estimate mixed logit models incorporating two temporal effects—inertia and shock—to account for habitual behaviour and capture both interventions' impact. The only travel mode with significant inertia is car, indicating that car drivers are less likely to change their travel mode. While the shock parameter for the fuel price intervention was not significant, we found a significant and positive shock effect for public transport which decreased over time during the policy. Furthermore, elasticities calculated pre- and during the intervention are considerably lower when habitual behaviour is considered. From the existence of inertia effects and low price elasticities, we conclude that the temporary intervention of almost fare-free public transport alone was not sufficient to achieve a modal shift from car to public transport for commuter trips.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100382"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143165305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Service-quality and pricing strategies in the airline industry: The role of distance","authors":"Xavier Fageda ,&nbsp;Ricardo Flores-Fillol","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2024.100381","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2024.100381","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper analyzes airlines’ fare and frequency decisions, both theoretically and empirically. These decisions depend on route distance, as only short-haul routes are affected by intermodal competition from personal transportation. Although fares increase with distance both on short- and long-haul routes, the effect of distance on frequencies depends on the presence of intermodal competition. Frequencies decay with distance on long-haul routes. However, on short-haul routes, frequencies increase with distance because airlines try to boost profits by attracting demand from other transportation modes. Finally, on short-haul routes, intermodal competition from personal transportation affects more intensively network carriers than low-cost carriers as distance rises, which produces an increased differentiation between both types of airlines.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100381"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143181638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Free rides to cleaner air? Examining the impact of massive public transport fare discounts on air quality","authors":"Daniel Albalate ,&nbsp;Mattia Borsati ,&nbsp;Albert Gragera","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2024.100380","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2024.100380","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We quantify the effect of public transportation fare subsidies on air quality by exploiting the sharp discontinuity in the cost of ridership introduced by policy intervention. We identify this effect by taking advantage of four months of massive discounts for transit services introduced in Spain on September 1, 2022, as part of the national plan to tackle the global energy crisis. Across pollutants and specifications, we find no evidence that low-cost or free-of-charge public transportation financing schemes have improved air quality. Our results reveal that measures aimed at reducing transit prices may fail to achieve the claimed environmental benefits through a modal shift from private to collective modes of transport, which suggests that massive fare discounts may not represent an efficient allocation of public funds.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100380"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142661123","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unionised dockworkers and port ownership structure in an international oligopoly","authors":"Nicola Meccheri","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2024.100379","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2024.100379","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In an international duopoly with two markets and two ports, this paper investigates the role of dockworkers unionisation in determining the endogenous choice by governments of port ownership structure. While private ports maximise profits, public ports maximise domestic welfare and face a budget constraint, which is binding when unions are sufficiently wage-oriented and shipping costs are not too high. State-owned ports appear as the most likely equilibrium result although all possible configurations may arise in equilibrium, including an asymmetric structure with a state-owned port and a private port. Country size asymmetry, product differentiation and price competition in product markets favour the rise of a joint public ownership structure of ports. This structure also maximises domestic welfare when unions are wage-oriented.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100379"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142416584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Microgeographic speed, reliability, and traffic externalities","authors":"Ian Herzog","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2024.100371","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2024.100371","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper estimates congestion externalities on a broad sample of roads in England’s capital region. A fixed effects approach that compares across times of day finds that 10% more traffic increases travel time by 4%, erodes reliability, and finds smallest marginal effects on high-capacity roads. I incorporate both expected travel time and reliability into a model of congestion externalities. Combining the model with travel data, I find that Central London’s Congestion Charge exceeds tolled drivers’ external costs if they only reflect travel time and reliability. Despite the large toll in London’s city centre, I find that deadweight loss in untolled parts of the city remains substantial, and that accounting for reliability increases deadweight loss by as much as 55%.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"39 ","pages":"Article 100371"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141993012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pricing effects of code-sharing in Africa","authors":"Andrea Gualini ,&nbsp;Laura Ogliari ,&nbsp;Gianmaria Martini ,&nbsp;Davide Scotti","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2024.100369","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2024.100369","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigates the impact of code-sharing (CS) agreements on airfares in Africa, a region largely overlooked in existing airline cooperation research. Analysing a comprehensive dataset covering international one-stop routes in Africa from 2017 to 2019, we examine the direct effects of CS agreements on connecting itinerary discount economy fares that swap from interline to CS. Additionally, we explore the spillover effects of airlines adopting CS on the fares of those that do not implement it. Our key findings reveal that the implementation of CS agreements results in an approximately 18% reduction in airfares for African international routes. Furthermore, we identify a negative spillover effect, demonstrating reduced airfares for interline itineraries by 12% when rival pairs adopt CS, while online and direct itineraries experience smaller reductions (around 4%).</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"39 ","pages":"Article 100369"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212012224000285/pdfft?md5=3fd450a8b795eda9162a5e11e036ca07&pid=1-s2.0-S2212012224000285-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141866908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}