Annals of FinancePub Date : 2022-12-05DOI: 10.1007/s10436-022-00419-6
Viviana Ventre, Cruz Rambaud Salvador, Roberta Martino, Fabrizio Maturo
{"title":"A behavioral approach to inconsistencies in intertemporal choices with the Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology","authors":"Viviana Ventre, Cruz Rambaud Salvador, Roberta Martino, Fabrizio Maturo","doi":"10.1007/s10436-022-00419-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-022-00419-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The framework of this paper is behavioral finance and, more specifically, the analysis of the main anomalies (delay, magnitude and sign effects) present in the processes of intertemporal choice. To the extent of our knowledge, only the delay effect (also known as decreasing impatience) has been discriminated between moderately and strongly decreasing impatience. However, taking into account that anomalies must be explained from a psychological point of view, the main objective of this paper is to relate the aforementioned paradoxes with the four categories of temperaments (artisan, guardian, idealist and rational) by using the sixteen personality types derived from the Myers–Briggs Type Indicator and the Behavioral Investor Types. To do this, we will use the Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology in order to detect the different levels of impatience through the so-called hyperbolic factor. Indeed, the main contribution of this paper refers to an empirical application which complements the theoretical analysis.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"19 2","pages":"233 - 264"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44437803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Annals of FinancePub Date : 2022-11-21DOI: 10.1007/s10436-022-00417-8
Tristan Caballero-Montes
{"title":"Integrating market conditions into regulatory decisions on microfinance interest rates: does competition matter?","authors":"Tristan Caballero-Montes","doi":"10.1007/s10436-022-00417-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-022-00417-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Microfinance rapidly developed and commercialized, exacerbating competition and the attention paid to profits. In response, many governments have capped microcredit interest rates. Using unique data on interest rate caps and a dataset comprising 1115 microfinance institutions over 2015–2018, we investigate the effect of such regulatory measures on loan sizes, with fixed-effect and two-stage residual inclusion regressions. Going further with a moderation analysis and multiple measurements of competition, we investigate whether market conditions affect this relationship. We find that microfinance institutions facing interest rate caps are associated with larger loans and financial exclusion, and that competition emphasizes this adverse effect. We suggest two mechanisms explaining such results: the deterioration of cross-subsidization possibilities and the exacerbation of risk-taking strategies of microfinance institutions, both favored by competition. Therefore, we argue against interest rate restrictions, and for the adoption of a more systemic analysis of regulatory outcomes integrating market conditions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"19 2","pages":"201 - 232"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47109482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Annals of FinancePub Date : 2022-11-15DOI: 10.1007/s10436-022-00416-9
Mario Eboli, Bulent Ozel, Andrea Teglio, Andrea Toto
{"title":"Connectivity, centralisation and ‘robustness-yet-fragility’ of interbank networks","authors":"Mario Eboli, Bulent Ozel, Andrea Teglio, Andrea Toto","doi":"10.1007/s10436-022-00416-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-022-00416-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper studies the effects that connectivity and centralisation have on the response of interbank networks to external shocks that generate phenomena of default contagion. We run numerical simulations of contagion processes on randomly generated networks, characterised by different degrees of density and centralisation. Our main findings show that the degree of robustness-yet-fragility of a network grows progressively with both its degree of density or centralisation, although at different paces. We also find that sparse and decentralised interbank networks are generally resilient to small shocks, contrary to what so far believed. The degree of robustness-yet-fragility of an interbank network determines its propensity to generate a too-many-to-fail problem. We argue that medium levels of density and high levels of centralisation prevent the emergence of a too-many-to-fail issue for small and medium shocks whilst drastically creating the problem in the case of large shocks. Finally, our results shed some light on the actual robustness-yet-fragility of the observed core-periphery national interbank networks, highlighting the existing risk of systemic crises.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"19 2","pages":"169 - 200"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10436-022-00416-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43950331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Annals of FinancePub Date : 2022-11-09DOI: 10.1007/s10436-022-00415-w
Qi Zhao, Alexandra Chronopoulou
{"title":"Delta-hedging in fractional volatility models","authors":"Qi Zhao, Alexandra Chronopoulou","doi":"10.1007/s10436-022-00415-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-022-00415-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper, we propose a delta-hedging strategy for a long memory stochastic volatility model (LMSV). This is a model in which the volatility is driven by a fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with long-memory parameter <i>H</i>. We compute the so-called hedging bias, i.e. the difference between the Black–Scholes Delta and the LMSV Delta as a function of <i>H</i>, and we determine when a European-type option is over-hedged or under-hedged.\u0000</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"19 1","pages":"119 - 140"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49232096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Annals of FinancePub Date : 2022-09-14DOI: 10.1007/s10436-022-00413-y
José Valente, Mário Augusto, José Murteira
{"title":"Bargaining power and renegotiation of small private debt contracts","authors":"José Valente, Mário Augusto, José Murteira","doi":"10.1007/s10436-022-00413-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-022-00413-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The present study is focused on the renegotiation of small debt contracts for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). We use a proprietary database from a Brazilian bank and find that, when compared to large loans, the probability of renegotiation of small loans is much lower. We argue that this is due to the lack of <i>ex-ante</i> contingencies in this kind of loan, which reduces the transfer of control to the lender in situations in which the borrower is not in financial distress, and to the lower bargaining power of SMEs when compared to large public companies. We find that borrower delinquency events and borrower bargaining power proxies are positively related to the probability of small loan renegotiation. We also find that delinquency events reduce the probability of borrower-friendly outcomes as well as the number of key contractual terms renegotiated favorably to the borrower. Further, we find that the borrower’s bargaining power increases the likelihood that the borrower will obtain a favorable outcome and a greater number of favorable key contractual terms in the outcome of the renegotiation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"18 4","pages":"485 - 510"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47372631","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Annals of FinancePub Date : 2022-09-01DOI: 10.1007/s10436-022-00414-x
Yumo Zhang
{"title":"Dynamic optimal mean-variance portfolio selection with stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rate","authors":"Yumo Zhang","doi":"10.1007/s10436-022-00414-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-022-00414-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper studies optimal portfolio selection problems in the presence of stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rate under the mean-variance criterion. The financial market consists of a risk-free asset (cash), a zero-coupon bond (roll-over bond), and a risky asset (stock). Specifically, we assume that the interest rate follows the Vasicek model, and the risky asset’s return rate not only depends on a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) process but also has stochastic covariance with the interest rate, which embraces the family of the state-of-the-art 4/2 stochastic volatility models as an exceptional case. By adopting a backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) approach and solving two related BSDEs, we derive, in closed form, the static optimal (time-inconsistent) strategy and optimal value function. Given the time inconsistency of the mean-variance criterion, a dynamic formulation of the problem is further investigated and the explicit expression for the dynamic optimal (time-consistent) strategy is derived. In addition, analytical solutions to some special cases of our model are provided. Finally, the impact of the model parameters on the efficient frontier and the behavior of the static and dynamic optimal asset allocations is illustrated with numerical examples.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"18 4","pages":"511 - 544"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46088806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Annals of FinancePub Date : 2022-07-30DOI: 10.1007/s10436-022-00412-z
Thomas A. Severini
{"title":"Some properties of portfolios constructed from principal components of asset returns","authors":"Thomas A. Severini","doi":"10.1007/s10436-022-00412-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-022-00412-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Principal components analysis (PCA) is a well-known statistical method used to analyze the covariance structure of a random vector and for dimension reduction. When applied to an <i>N</i>-dimensional random vector of asset returns, PCA produces a set of <i>N</i> principal components, linear functions of the asset return vector that are mutually uncorrelated and which have some important statistical properties. The purpose of this paper is to consider the properties of portfolios based on such principal components, know as PC portfolios, including the efficiency of PC portfolios, the use of PC portfolios to reduce the return variance of a given portfolio, and the properties of factor models with PC portfolios as factors.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"18 4","pages":"457 - 483"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45688791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Annals of FinancePub Date : 2022-06-06DOI: 10.1007/s10436-022-00411-0
Dilip B. Madan, King Wang
{"title":"Two sided efficient frontiers at multiple time horizons","authors":"Dilip B. Madan, King Wang","doi":"10.1007/s10436-022-00411-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-022-00411-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Two price economy principles motivate measuring risk by the cost of acquiring the opposite of the centered or pure risk position at its upper price. Asymmetry in returns leads to differences in risk charges for short and long positions. Short risk charges dominate long ones when the upper tail dominates the comparable lower tail for charges based on distorted expectations. Positive mean return targets acquire long positions with negative mean return targets taking short positions. In each case the appropriate risk charge is minimized to construct two frontiers, one for the positive, and the other for negative, mean return targets. Multivariate return distributions reflect limit laws given by Q self-decomposable laws displaying decay rates in skewness and excess kurtosis slower than those for processes of independent and identically distributed returns. Frontiers at longer horizons display greater efficiency reflected by lower risk charges for comparable mean return targets. The short side frontiers also display greater risk charges than their long side counterparts. All efficient portfolios deliver asset pricing equations whereby required returns in excess of a reference rate are a market price of risk times a risk gradient evaluated at the efficient portfolio. Variations in frontiers and points on the frontier induce differences in reference rates, risk gradients, and the market prices of risk that can yet lead to comparable required returns.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"18 3","pages":"327 - 353"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46369022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Annals of FinancePub Date : 2022-05-02DOI: 10.1007/s10436-022-00410-1
Nyassoke Titi Gaston Clément, Sadefo Kamdem Jules, Fono Louis Aimé
{"title":"Dynamic optimal hedge ratio design when price and production are stochastic with jump","authors":"Nyassoke Titi Gaston Clément, Sadefo Kamdem Jules, Fono Louis Aimé","doi":"10.1007/s10436-022-00410-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-022-00410-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper, we focus on the farmer’s risk income when using commodity futures, when price and output processes are randomly correlated and represented by jump-diffusion models. We evaluate the expected utility of the farmer’s wealth and determine the optimal consumption rate and hedging position at each point in time given the harvest timing and state variables. We find a closed form for the optimal consumption and positioning rate in the case of an investor with CARA utility. This result (see Table 3.3) is a generalization of the result of Ho (J Financ 39:351–376, 1984), which considers the special case in which price and output are diffusion models.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"18 3","pages":"419 - 428"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49131266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Annals of FinancePub Date : 2022-04-28DOI: 10.1007/s10436-022-00409-8
Marcos Escobar-Anel, Matt Davison, Yichen Zhu
{"title":"Derivatives-based portfolio decisions: an expected utility insight","authors":"Marcos Escobar-Anel, Matt Davison, Yichen Zhu","doi":"10.1007/s10436-022-00409-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-022-00409-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper challenges the use of stocks in portfolio construction, instead we demonstrate that Asian derivatives, straddles, or baskets could be more convenient substitutes. Our results are obtained under the assumptions of the Black–Scholes–Merton setting, uncovering a hidden benefit of derivatives that complements their well-known gains for hedging, risk management, and to increase utility in market incompleteness. The new insights are also transferable to more advanced stochastic settings. The analysis relies on the infinite number of optimal choices of derivatives for a maximized expected utility theory agent; we propose risk exposure minimization as an additional optimization criterion inspired by regulations. Working with two assets, for simplicity, we demonstrate that only two derivatives are needed to maximize utility while minimizing risky exposure. In a comparison among one-asset options, e.g. American, European, Asian, Calls and Puts, we demonstrate that the deepest out-of-the-money Asian products available are the best choices to minimize exposure. We also explore optimal selections among straddles, which are better practical choice than out-of-the-money Calls and Puts due to liquidity and rebalancing needs. The optimality of multi-asset derivatives is also considered, establishing that a basket option could be a better choice than one-asset Asian call/put in many realistic situations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"18 2","pages":"217 - 246"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10436-022-00409-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42846027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}