Annals of FinancePub Date : 2025-05-23DOI: 10.1007/s10436-025-00463-y
Aleksandr Shirobokov
{"title":"Sanctions Induced Terms of Trade Shocks and the Role of Lean Against the Wind Policy","authors":"Aleksandr Shirobokov","doi":"10.1007/s10436-025-00463-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-025-00463-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Economic sanctions have recently become a prominent tool in international policymaking. However, the mechanisms through which sanctions are transmitted and their impact on the domestic financial sector remain unclear. This paper employs a calibrated New Keynesian small open economy model to analyze the transmission channels of sanctions-induced terms of trade shocks and their impact on the economy. The rise in the domestic prices of imports is a crucial channel through which trade restrictions affect the economy due to the production sector’s reliance on imported investment goods. The findings indicate that both export and import sanctions lead to similar outcomes: a fall in investment caused by a 10% reduction in the price of exported goods or a 10% increase in the price of imported goods results in over a 2% contraction in domestic production, accompanied by a rise in non-performing loan rates among firms and households. Countercyclical lean against the wind (LAW) monetary policy facilitates a quicker recovery in production by encouraging the substitution of imported investment goods with domestically produced alternatives and improves financial stability in the consumer debt market.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"21 2","pages":"211 - 242"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2025-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144880769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Annals of FinancePub Date : 2025-04-16DOI: 10.1007/s10436-025-00461-0
Amit Ghosh, Salvador Contreras
{"title":"Local banking market structure and employment dynamics: evidence from US counties","authors":"Amit Ghosh, Salvador Contreras","doi":"10.1007/s10436-025-00461-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-025-00461-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Does the local banking market structure affect the local labor market? The answer to this question has important social-economic implications. Using a panel dataset covering over 2700 counties from 1994 to 2020 we find that concentrated banking markets are associated with lower county-level unemployment rates. Exploring transmission mechanisms, we find that concentration increases different categories of bank lending, including small business loans. Higher concentration also leads to small business formation and job creation. Our findings lend support to the relative efficient structure paradigm suggesting concentration in local banking markets results in more efficient banks gaining market shares, increasing their local comparative advantage, in turn improving access to credit and leading to stronger local labor market.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"21 2","pages":"163 - 188"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144880995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Annals of FinancePub Date : 2025-03-13DOI: 10.1007/s10436-025-00460-1
Junyong Lee, Frederick Dongchuhl Oh
{"title":"Foreign bank entry and performance of domestic SMEs: evidence from Korea","authors":"Junyong Lee, Frederick Dongchuhl Oh","doi":"10.1007/s10436-025-00460-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-025-00460-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We examine whether foreign bank entry enhances the performance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Korea. Using panel data on Korean firms from 1991 to 2019, we first confirm that foreign banks positively influence the amount of bank loans received by Korean SMEs, suggesting that their entry contributes to improving SMEs’ credit access. Additionally, the positive impact of foreign bank entry is more pronounced for SMEs characterized by high information asymmetry and strong growth potential. Further, improved credit access through foreign banks is positively associated with the long-term performance of SMEs. Overall, our study highlights the importance of foreign banks for improving both credit access and the performance of domestic SMEs in a transition economy.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"21 2","pages":"131 - 162"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144880956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Annals of FinancePub Date : 2024-12-30DOI: 10.1007/s10436-024-00459-0
Costanza Torricelli, Chiara Pederzoli, Fabio Ferrari
{"title":"Climate stress test: bad (or good) news for the market? An event study analisys on euro zone banks","authors":"Costanza Torricelli, Chiara Pederzoli, Fabio Ferrari","doi":"10.1007/s10436-024-00459-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-024-00459-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper investigates how the 2021 ECB Climate stress test affected the market view on the climate risk exposure of the banking sector. To this end, we set up an event study analysis on stock returns of the banks included in the exercise, whereby at the relevant dates we test for the existence of abnormal returns. The potential hypothesis is that bad/good news on climate risks exposure of banks may negatively/positively impacts their profitability and hence stock returns. Three main results emerge from our analyses. First, the stress test announcement had no significant impact on banks stock returns, a result that can be explained by the type of information given, i.e. only the methodology and some preliminary mainly qualitative evidence. Second, and by contrast, the publication of the final results with quantitative details determined a positive significant reaction, since the market possibly expected banks’ exposure to climate risks to be greater. Third, an event related to the worldwide consensus on the need to manage climate change (COP26), yet not strictly related to the climate stress test, had no significant market impact. Our results, which are robust to various checks, may have policy implications for future climate stress tests and institutional initiatives needed to manage climate risk.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"21 1","pages":"1 - 17"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143632449","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Annals of FinancePub Date : 2024-12-21DOI: 10.1007/s10436-024-00457-2
Kizkitza Biguri
{"title":"The (un)secured debt puzzle: evidence for U.S. public firms","authors":"Kizkitza Biguri","doi":"10.1007/s10436-024-00457-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-024-00457-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Collateral availability determines secured debt, while creditworthiness determines unsecured debt. Both are relevant for the debt structure. Regardless of the benefits that pledging collateral may offer, firms substitute away from secured debt as financial constraints relax. An increase in the share of unsecured debt leads to an increase in investment. A higher investment and the preference for unsecured debt can be explained by firms’ desire to minimize financing costs, spreads on unsecured debt are on average lower. This novel evidence complements existing literature on the collateral channel.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"21 1","pages":"19 - 44"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10436-024-00457-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143632361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Annals of FinancePub Date : 2024-12-15DOI: 10.1007/s10436-024-00458-1
Karen Grigorian, Robert A. Jarrow
{"title":"No arbitrage for a special class of filtration expansions","authors":"Karen Grigorian, Robert A. Jarrow","doi":"10.1007/s10436-024-00458-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-024-00458-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper provides a set of sufficient conditions for special classes of filtration expansions, such that the expanded information introduces no new arbitrage opportunities into a market. The information expansion corresponds to knowledge of the “true” price process. The theorem is based on comparing two distinct markets—the original and a fictitious—each associated with a different filtration, and employs the first fundamental theorem of asset pricing in both of these two markets.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"21 1","pages":"45 - 68"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143632428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Annals of FinancePub Date : 2024-12-12DOI: 10.1007/s10436-024-00456-3
Catarina A. Ramos, Nuno C. Marques, Marta Faias, Hugo Santos
{"title":"Tailor-made strategies through different weight simulation of factor-based investing","authors":"Catarina A. Ramos, Nuno C. Marques, Marta Faias, Hugo Santos","doi":"10.1007/s10436-024-00456-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-024-00456-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study explores the implementation and factor integration of diverse factor-based investment strategies in the European market. Specifically, we investigate a contrarian strategy, two value strategies, and a momentum strategy from 2015 to June 2024. Utilising the Python framework Qrumble for efficient experimentation, we integrate evaluation metrics and we consider beyond the commonly used portfolios, equally weighted and value-weighted, two theoretically efficient portfolios - minimum variance and market portfolio. While certain strategies yielded outcomes not entirely in line with state-of-the-art standards, both value strategies showed promising returns with manageable risk. Notably, the combination of factors in a multi-type strategy, named Magical Bambu, demonstrated interesting results, suggesting the potential for effective collaboration between different investment methodologies. This study underscores the nuanced outcomes within theoretically efficient portfolios under specific conditions, prompting further exploration.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"21 2","pages":"107 - 129"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10436-024-00456-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144880921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Approximation and asymptotics in the superhedging problem for binary options","authors":"Sergey Smirnov, Dimitri Sotnikov, Andrey Zanochkin","doi":"10.1007/s10436-024-00454-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-024-00454-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper considers Kolokoltsov’s multiplicative model of market price dynamics witout trading constraints. Under general assumptions and monotonic payoff functions, we show that the guaranteed deterministic approach, having a game-theoretic interpretation, yields the same result in the superhedging problem as in the probabilistic approach. We analyze in detail the superhedging problem for a special monotonic payoff function, i.e., a European-style binary option, within the guaranteed deterministic approach (GDA). Unlike the probabilistic counterpart, GDA allows a direct description of the most unfavorable mixed market strategy. We obtain some interesting analytical properties of the solutions of the corresponding Bellman–Isaacs equations, providing the minimal required reserves (also called the superhedging price) to cover the option payoff at the expiration time. The price process with the conditional distributions corresponding to the most unfavorable market scenarios can be approximated on a logarithmic scale by a random walk with two absorbing barriers. We also prove that, under an appropriate normalization, the price process weakly converges to the geometric Brownian motion with one absorbing barrier at the strike price when the discrete-time model number of steps tends to infinity.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"20 4","pages":"421 - 458"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142636913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Annals of FinancePub Date : 2024-08-27DOI: 10.1007/s10436-024-00453-6
Masahiro Handa, Noriyoshi Sakuma, Ryoichi Suzuki
{"title":"A Girsanov transformed Clark-Ocone-Haussmann type formula for (L^1)-pure jump additive processes and its application to portfolio optimization","authors":"Masahiro Handa, Noriyoshi Sakuma, Ryoichi Suzuki","doi":"10.1007/s10436-024-00453-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-024-00453-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We derive a Clark-Ocone-Haussmann (COH) type formula under a change of measure for <span>( L^1 )</span>-canonical additive processes, providing a tool for representing financial derivatives under a risk-neutral probability measure. COH formulas are fundamental in stochastic analysis, providing explicit martingale representations of random variables in terms of their Malliavin derivatives. In mathematical finance, the COH formula under a change of measure is crucial for representing financial derivatives under a risk-neutral probability measure. To prove our main results, we use the Malliavin-Skorohod calculus in <span>( L^0 )</span> and <span>( L^1 )</span> for additive processes, as developed by Di Nunno and Vives (2017). An application of our results is solving the local risk minimization (LRM) problem in financial markets driven by pure jump additive processes. LRM, a prominent hedging approach in incomplete markets, seeks strategies that minimize the conditional variance of the hedging error. By applying our COH formula, we obtain explicit expressions for locally risk-minimizing hedging strategies in terms of Malliavin derivatives under the market model underlying the additive process. These formulas provide practical tools for managing risks in financial market price fluctuations with <span>(L^1)</span>-additive processes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"20 3","pages":"329 - 352"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10436-024-00453-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142198554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Annals of FinancePub Date : 2024-08-26DOI: 10.1007/s10436-024-00452-7
Donatien Hainaut, Alex Casas
{"title":"Option pricing in the Heston model with physics inspired neural networks","authors":"Donatien Hainaut, Alex Casas","doi":"10.1007/s10436-024-00452-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-024-00452-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In absence of a closed form expression such as in the Heston model, the option pricing is computationally intensive when calibrating a model to market quotes. this article proposes an alternative to standard pricing methods based on physics-inspired neural networks (PINNs). A PINN integrates principles from physics into its learning process to enhance its efficiency in solving complex problems. In this article, the driving principle is the Feynman-Kac (FK) equation, which is a partial differential equation (PDE) governing the derivative price in the Heston model. We focus on the valuation of European options and show that PINNs constitute an efficient alternative for pricing options with various specifications and parameters without the need for retraining.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"20 3","pages":"353 - 376"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142198555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}