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Importing Inequality: Immigration and the Top 1 Percent 输入不平等:移民和最富有的1%
Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal Pub Date : 2020-09-21 DOI: 10.1920/WP.IFS.2020.3120
A. Advani, Felix Koenig, L. Pessina, A. Summers
{"title":"Importing Inequality: Immigration and the Top 1 Percent","authors":"A. Advani, Felix Koenig, L. Pessina, A. Summers","doi":"10.1920/WP.IFS.2020.3120","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1920/WP.IFS.2020.3120","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we study the contribution of migrants to the rise in UK top incomes. Using administrative data on the universe of UK taxpayers we show migrants are over-represented at the top of the income distribution, with migrants twice as prevalent in the top 0.1% as anywhere in the bottom 97%. These high incomes are predominantly from labour, rather than capital, and migrants are concentrated in only a handful of industries, predominantly finance. Almost all (85%) of the growth in the UK top 1% income share over the past 20 years can be attributed to migration.","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"176 2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134053783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11
Predictable Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts and Their Impact Across Asset Classes 宏观经济预测中的可预测偏差及其对资产类别的影响
Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal Pub Date : 2020-08-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3008976
L. Félix, R. Kräussl, Philip A. Stork
{"title":"Predictable Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts and Their Impact Across Asset Classes","authors":"L. Félix, R. Kräussl, Philip A. Stork","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3008976","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3008976","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates how biases in macroeconomic forecasts are associated with economic surprises and market responses across asset classes around US data announcements. We find that the skewness of the distribution of economic forecasts is a strong predictor of economic surprises, suggesting that forecasters behave strategically (rational bias) and possess private information. Our results also show that consensus forecasts of US macroeconomic releases embed anchoring. Under these conditions, both economic surprises and the returns of assets that are sensitive to macroeconomic conditions are predictable. Our findings indicate that local equities and bond markets are more predictable than foreign markets, currencies and commodities. Economic surprises are found to link to asset returns very distinctively through the stages of the economic cycle, whereas they strongly depend on economic releases being inflation- or growth-related. Yet, when forecasters fail to correctly forecast the direction of economic surprises, regret becomes a relevant cognitive bias to explain asset price responses. We find that the behavioral and rational biases encountered in US economic forecasting also exists in Continental Europe, the United Kingdom and Japan, albeit, to a lesser extent.","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125588257","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
The Effect of Macroprudential Policies on Credit Developments in Europe 1995-2017 1995-2017年欧洲宏观审慎政策对信贷发展的影响
Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3682506
K. Budnik
{"title":"The Effect of Macroprudential Policies on Credit Developments in Europe 1995-2017","authors":"K. Budnik","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3682506","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3682506","url":null,"abstract":"The paper inspects the credit impact of policy instruments that are commonly applied to contain systemic risk. It employs detailed information on the use of capital-based, borrower-based and liquidity-based instruments in 28 European Union countries in 1995—2017 and a macroeconomic panel setup. The paper finds a significant impact of capital buffers, profit distribution restrictions, specific and general loan-loss provisioning regulations, sectoral risk weights and exposure limits, borrower-based measures, caps on long-term maturity and exchange rate mismatch, and asset-based capital requirements on credit to the non-financial private sector. Furthermore, the business cycle and monetary policy influence the effectiveness of most of the macroprudential instruments. Therein, capital buffers and sectoral risk weights act countercyclically irrespectively of the prevailing monetary policy stance, while a far richer set of policy instruments can act countercyclically in combination with the appropriate monetary policy stance. JEL Classification: E51, E52, G21","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"322 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133301875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Trapped in the “zero-risk” society and how to break free 困在“零风险”社会中又如何挣脱
Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3684550
D. Sornette, P. Cauwels
{"title":"Trapped in the “zero-risk” society and how to break free","authors":"D. Sornette, P. Cauwels","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3684550","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3684550","url":null,"abstract":"We live in a ‘zero-risk society’, characterized by a culture that is obsessed with controlling and removing any possible risks. Obviously, one of the fundamental objectives of any civilization is to improve the safety and security of its citizens. However, we should not let the cozy comfort that comes with this progress let us fall into a doze. Human societies are intrinsically out-of-equilibrium, constantly exposed to endogenous and exogenous shocks, extreme events that may be known unknowns but even unknown unknowns. This may sound like a paradox, but, bold risk-taking is an essential ingredient of any resilient society. It is the only way to prepare for the totality of growing challenges that we are facing today. Unfortunately, the past decades have been characterized by technological stagnation, principally in discoveries and inventions, and more recently also in innovations, and by social, cultural, intellectual and institutional exhaustion. The authors attribute this to four deeper causes: (i) risk aversion as a consequence of increasing wealth and aging; (ii) technology creating an ‘illusion of control’; (iii) herding and imitation through social media and (iv) management shaped by extremes and over-reaction. The only way out of this trap is to promote a culture in education where failure is seen as part of the learning process, and aggressively fund explorative, high-risk projects, encourage playful, creative, even apparently useless tinkering. Finally, incentives and rewards should promote risk-takers, explorers and creative inventors in the same way as it does with social media influencers and Hollywood or sports stars. Our analyses call for massive creations of DARPA-like institutions and bold super Apollo-like projects to break free of the zero-risk = dying societies.","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"36 3","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132694036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Economic Policy Uncertainty in Latin America: Measurement using Spanish Newspapers and Economic Spillovers 拉丁美洲经济政策的不确定性:用西班牙语报纸和经济溢出效应进行测量
Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal Pub Date : 2020-07-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3661499
Corinna Ghirelli, Javier J. Pérez, A. Urtasun
{"title":"Economic Policy Uncertainty in Latin America: Measurement using Spanish Newspapers and Economic Spillovers","authors":"Corinna Ghirelli, Javier J. Pérez, A. Urtasun","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3661499","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3661499","url":null,"abstract":"We construct Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) indexes for a number of Latin American (LA) economies (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Venezuela) and the region as a whole based on the Spanish press. Our measures are comparable across countries. We study the macroeconomic effects of LA EPU shocks on the analyzed American economies and the Spanish economy. To study the international spillover effects on the Spanish economy we carry out two exercises by means of vector autoregression models. First, we estimate responses to unexpected shocks in LA EPU of the quotations of Spanish companies which are highly exposed to Latin America. Second, we study the impact of LA EPU shocks on Spanish macroeconomic aggregates. Unexpected shocks in LA EPU dampen signicantly the commercial relationship between Spain and LA countries. Spanish firms decrease their exports and foreign direct investments towards LA countries that experience negative shocks in EPU.","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"134 6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123786049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 63
Performance Hacking: The Contagious Business Practice that Corrodes Corporate Culture, Undermines Core Values, and Damages Great Companies 《绩效黑客:侵蚀企业文化、破坏核心价值观、损害伟大公司的传染性商业行为
Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal Pub Date : 2020-07-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3663923
R. Austin, R. Nolan
{"title":"Performance Hacking: The Contagious Business Practice that Corrodes Corporate Culture, Undermines Core Values, and Damages Great Companies","authors":"R. Austin, R. Nolan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3663923","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3663923","url":null,"abstract":"August 7, 1955 is an important date in commercial aviation history. You could say it began the jet airliner age, though other dates might also qualify. Jet engines had proven successful in military aircraft. But no one knew then whether members of the general public would ever want to fly in airplanes without propellers.","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"75 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116314895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Inequality Trap: How High Stakes Fuel Overestimation and Equity Aversion 不平等陷阱:高风险如何引发高估和股票厌恶
Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal Pub Date : 2020-07-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3642870
Frieder Neunhoeffer, Michele Bernasconi
{"title":"The Inequality Trap: How High Stakes Fuel Overestimation and Equity Aversion","authors":"Frieder Neunhoeffer, Michele Bernasconi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3642870","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3642870","url":null,"abstract":"Bringing existing inequality in South Africa (high) and Switzerland (low) to the lab, we study how people's preferences for redistribution change with the level of income inequality, income mobility, uncertainty of initial income positions, source of income (random or based on real-effort). We find that uncertainty and overconfidence undermine demand for redistribution. The effect magnifies with larger income disparity (South Africa). It further induces a reverse POUM effect: since wealth ambitions of rich aspirants are better preserved under low than under high mobility, demand for redistribution grows with the degree of mobility. These results combined propose an inequality trap: today's inequality favors income overestimation, winding up less demand for redistribution with less mobility, which propels advanced inequality tomorrow.","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"601 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131646764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Gender Inequality and Economic Growth: Evidence from Industry-Level Data 性别不平等与经济增长:来自行业层面数据的证据
Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513546278.001
Ata Can Bertay, L. Dordevic, Can Sever
{"title":"Gender Inequality and Economic Growth: Evidence from Industry-Level Data","authors":"Ata Can Bertay, L. Dordevic, Can Sever","doi":"10.5089/9781513546278.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513546278.001","url":null,"abstract":"We study whether higher gender equality facilitates economic growth by enabling better allocation of a valuable resource: female labor. By allocating female labor to its more productive use, we hypothesize that reducing gender inequality should disproportionately benefit industries with typically higher female share in their employment relative to other industries. Specifically, we exploit within-country variation across industries to test whether those that typically employ more women grow relatively faster in countries with ex-ante lower gender inequality. The test allows us to identify the causal effect of gender inequality on industry growth in value-added and labor productivity. Our findings show that gender inequality affects real economic outcomes.","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"20 3","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132287365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 34
School Bullying Increases Support for Redistribution in Adulthood 校园欺凌增加了成年后再分配的支持
Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal Pub Date : 2020-06-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3624430
Atsushi Yamagishi
{"title":"School Bullying Increases Support for Redistribution in Adulthood","authors":"Atsushi Yamagishi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3624430","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3624430","url":null,"abstract":"I document that being bullied at school is strongly associated with the support for redistribution in adulthood. Using unique Japanese survey data, I estimate that being bullied at school increases the support for redistribution in adulthood by around 5-7 percentage points. I carefully examine whether omitted factors drive the school bullying effect by considering a rich set of socioeconomic and psychological mediators. Consistent with the causal interpretation of the school bullying effect, the estimate is remarkably robust.","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"232 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114190736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Constitutionalism, Liberalism, and Political Entrepreneurship 宪政、自由主义与政治企业家精神
Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal Pub Date : 2020-04-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3358974
A. Salter
{"title":"Constitutionalism, Liberalism, and Political Entrepreneurship","authors":"A. Salter","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3358974","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3358974","url":null,"abstract":"I criticize contractarian approaches to political economy that assume the insularity of constitutions from ordinary political exchange. Using tools from market process economics, I outline a theory of the political-entrepreneurial process as applied to constitutions. This theory can help us understand many aspects of real-world constitutional politics, such as the frequent divergence of de facto constitutions from their de jure specification. I also discuss how my proposed framework can help advance classically liberal political economy, with special reference to the conditions that allow societies to develop and retain liberal constitutions.","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115386520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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