Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal最新文献

{"title":"Identifying Indicators of Systemic Risk","authors":"Benny Hartwig, Christoph Meinerding, Y. S. Schüler","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3437285","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3437285","url":null,"abstract":"We operationalize the definition of systemic risk provided by the IMF, BIS, and FSB and derive testable hypotheses to identify indicators of systemic risk. We map these hypotheses into a two-stage hierarchical testing framework, combining insights from the early-warning literature on financial crises with recent advances on growth-at-risk. Applying this framework to a set of candidate variables, we find that the Basel III credit-to-GDP gap does not indicate systemic risk coherently across G7 countries. Credit growth and house price growth also do not pass our test in many cases. By contrast, a composite financial cycle signals systemic risk consistently for all countries except Canada. Overall, our results suggest that systemic risk may be consistently measured only once the turning points of indicators have been observed. Therefore, pre-emptive countercyclical macroprudential policy may smooth the financial cycle in boom phases, which then indirectly mitigates the amount of systemic risk in the future.","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128333801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Population Control via Capitalism","authors":"Julia M. Puaschunder","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3433744","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3433744","url":null,"abstract":"In a realm of literature on influence factors on fertility rates; this paper innovatively introduces capitalism being associated with lowered fertility rates. Based on a 180 country strong worldwide data set and cross sectional correlation studies, this paper outlines that hallmark pillars of capitalism are all negatively associated with fertility rates. The 2017 Economic Freedom Index – comprising of input variables such as property rights protection, judicial effectiveness, government integrity, fiscal health, freedom of business, labor, monetary policy, trade, investment, finance, taxation, GDP freedoms as well as FDI inflows – is significantly negatively correlated with fertility rates around the globe. Based on a 139 country strong worldwide dataset on industrialization as measured by the UNIDO in the Industrialization Intensity Index of 2014 and fertility rates, a highly significant negative relation is found between industrialization and fertility rates around the world. Urban areas around the world tend to have higher fertility rates and access to markets within rural communities lowers fertility rates measured by the World Bank Rural Access Index for 64 countries around the world. The inverse relation of economic freedom and fertility was also found for 50 U.S. states based on the 2017 Economic Freedom Index and fertility rates in the United States. The historic examples of communism imploding giving way to free market mechanisms but also an Islamic regime changing towards a Western free market approach captures capitalism to crowd out fertility in a meta-analysis, which also finds higher education levels not being stringently related to fertility rates. Industrialization, globalization and capitalism lead to vanishing populations. Being occupied by production and consumption but also the entertainment of capitalist markets, economic mobility and international trade may distract societies to prosper regarding fertility. Focus on competing in markets may hinder from procreation. Equilibria und markets may have an undocumented negative effect on fertility. Unruled capitalism may lead to a falling rate of fertility, decimating the populace and eventually also the reserve pool of economic agents. The paper concludes with proposals how to use these novel insights as (1) birth control mechanism in those parts of the world, where overpopulation is currently demanding governments to find ways how to lower the fertility rate and (2) means to avert the falling rate of fertility in capitalist societies with a shrinking, aging population. Infusing capitalistic market freedoms in birth control needed territories but also taxing capitalist activities to fund parenthood through direct investment in social benefits and/or via subsidized parenthood to alleviate the tendency of the falling rate of fertility in the eye of capitalism is recommended concurrently, depending on the starting level on the overpopulation-low capitalism versus under-reproduction-h","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116183872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Turkey: An Empirical Assessment of the Determinants of the Current Account Balance","authors":"David S. Knight, Alberto Portugal-Perez, M. Nedeljković","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-8982","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8982","url":null,"abstract":"Turkey has moved rapidly from a current account that was relatively in balance up to the turn of the millennia, to sustaining relatively large current account deficits over the past 15 years. Using annual data from 1986 to 2017 and a jackknife model-averaging estimator, the paper estimates the relationship between the current account balance and a set of determinants that are broadly consistent with the cross-country literature. These determinants include private sector credit, public expenditure, real exchange rate changes, gross domestic product growth relative to the rest of the world, trade openness, international oil prices, foreign direct investment levels, past net foreign assets, inflation volatility, and global levels of uncertainty. The analysis then decomposes the predicted current account balance for five-year periods to illustrate the factors that have driven the current account over time. Over 2003-07, a large current account deficit became established in Turkey, driven by an expansion of credit to households and rapid gross domestic product growth, coupled with improved macroeconomic stability that supported higher spending and therefore imports. Since then, the negative effect of household credit has abated, but was replaced in 2008-17 by an expansion of credit to the corporate sector as a driver of the current account deficit. The current account balance in Turkey is also found to be less persistent than is typically found in the cross-country literature, implying that it adjusts more rapidly in response to shocks.","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126199440","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Price Statistics Compilation in 196 Economies: The Relevance for Policy Analysis","authors":"Francien Berry, B. Graf, Michael Stanger, Mari Ylä-Jarkko","doi":"10.5089/9781513508313.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513508313.001","url":null,"abstract":"The consumer price index (CPI) is a key economic indicator used to gauge inflation, adjust wages, pensions, and social benefits. The producer prices index (PPI) is used for forecasting and deflating GDP estimates. Both indexes are used by the Fund, policymakers, and researchers for global, regional, and domestic surveillance. In this context, the paper evaluates the soundness of the indexes by assessing four major criteria: frequency of updating the weights, the index coverage, timeliness, and the use of international classifications. We discuss online and scanner data as frontier issues. The study shows that the CPI is universally and frequently compiled, timely, and fairly-well aligned with international standards. However, the weights used to compile the index are updated in only 45 percent of economies and have national coverage in 76 percent. PPIs, compiled by only 126 economies are timely, but there is scope for continued improvement as only 36 percent of economies have updated PPI weights and approximately 67 percent maintain the recommended coverage. Outdated weights impact the reliability of the indexes for policy analysis. Frequently updated weights and well-represented coverage mitigate against biases and ensure that the indexes properly measure the price evolution in the economy.","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127717768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Crop and Conflict: Exploring the impact of Inequality in Agricultural Production on Conflict Risk","authors":"Paola Vesco, M. Kovacic, M. Mistry","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3409745","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3409745","url":null,"abstract":"Recent attempts to find a robust empirical correlation between climate variability, crop production and civil conflict risk have been quite inconclusive. In this paper, we argue that the ambiguity in empirical findings may be partly due to a general tendency to treat agricultural production in absolute terms, while neglecting the importance of the relative deprivation triggered by unequal distribution in crop yields across locations and between groups. To test this hypothesis, we rely on high-resolution global gridded data on the local yield of four main crops for the period 1981-2017, and calculate the level of inequality in crop production by means of a Gini index using the grid-cell information on yearly crop yields both at the country level and between identity based groups (regional and ethnic). In addition, for each level of spatial disaggregation, we compute the Gini coefficient using information on crop production from rural grid-cells only. Our results reveal a strong and robust association between crop inequality and the probability of conflict outbreak. This effect is particularly pronounced in the case of inequality among rural areas. Climatic variability, on the other hand, is shown not to increase significantly the destabilizing effect of crop inequality. We also find that akin ethnic competition and discrimination along ethnic lines represent good predictors of conflict outbreak, especially in the case of ethnic conflicts, and when the between-group inequality in crop production is calculated along ethnic boundaries.","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"1034 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134486310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Anti-corruptions and IPO Decision: Evidence from the Chinese Provincial Panel Data","authors":"Bingwei Chen, Guanglei Zhou","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3632826","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3632826","url":null,"abstract":"Relationship between IPOs and Local political turnover has been disputed and studied (Piotroski and Zhang (2014)). In this paper, we further focus on the anti-corruption and IPOs, since 2012 Chairman Xi announced and conducted a series of action of \"hit the tiger\" in order to reduce the anti-corruption and pure discipline in CPC. By examining and testing provincial panel data, we found the demotion of provincial officials can affect IPO decisions of Chinese companies that are eligible to list, those who take advantage of the window where companies lose political connections can lead to certain resource allocation inefficiencies. Additionally, firms performance and ownership could also be influenced by such demotion and anti-corruption.","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115040596","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Executive Gender and Prospect-Value Bias: Evidence from Insider Trading","authors":"S. Sehrish, David K. Ding, Nuttawat Visaltanachoti","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3406357","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3406357","url":null,"abstract":"This study shows that prospect value influences insider-trading decisions, and the impact is stronger among female executives’ trades. Insiders who buy (sell) when their company's prospect value is above (below) other firms’ prospect values lose 34 (12) basis points over the next month. Female insider trades, as compared with trades by their male counterparts, are affected more by prospect-value bias, and they suffer significantly higher resultant losses. While the findings contradict the overconfidence hypothesis that predicts poor trading decisions by male insiders, the results are consistent with the male insiders’ superior information access hypothesis, suggesting that behavioral biases diminish with knowledge.","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129304727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Islamic (Sukuk) Vs. Conventional Financing: Comparative Analysis of the Sources of ROE Under Different Financing Decisions","authors":"Falak Ather, D. Siddiqui","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3384174","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3384174","url":null,"abstract":"Over the last decade, Islamic Financials (Sukuk) emerged as a pioneering capital market instrument. The riskiness of Sukuk is similar to that of the bond as they depend on the financial credibility of the issuer hence assumed to have no significant difference, the only difference seems to be in legal nature. Weather this culminates into real structural difference given them unique identity has yet to be seen. This study aims to investigate the impact of Islamic verses conventional financing decision on firms’ performance, and identifying factors that were causing that performance. This study takes ROE of 11 companies issuing Islamic Financials and 11 companies issuing Conventional Financials from the period between 2010 and 2015 and found the factors affecting their performance. Internal and external factors were identified and their impact on ROE is analysed using panel regression. The results showed that that Sukuk financing organizations are more influenced by external and internal factors as compared to conventional ones. The sources of profitability is more towards efficient management of their assets (TAT) and financial leverage (EM) rather than demand side factors (PM). Moreover, their profit are more influenced from internal factors as compared to external factors. The discoveries uncover the Islamic Financials (Sukuk) to be an essentially high wellspring of benefit for an organization alongside the other customers' infectious determinants, for example, religious standards, sharia-consistent instruments, and intrigue (Riba) free financing.","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"57 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128592621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dimensions of Inequality in Japan: Distributions of Earnings, Income and Wealth between 1984 and 2014","authors":"S. Kitao, Tomoaki Yamada","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3398648","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3398648","url":null,"abstract":"Inequality has become a central policy issue around the world. We study trends of inequality in earnings, income and wealth across households in Japan, using the National Survey of Family Income and Expenditure (NSFIE) from 1984 to 2014. We focus on the transition of inequality unconditionally and conditionally across various dimensions of household heterogeneity such as age, cohort, employment and marital status of household heads, sources of income, family size, etc. Inequality in earnings, income and wealth all increased during the last three decades. Changes in earnings and income inequality were mostly driven by demographic shift in the population towards the elderly, who tend to have higher inequality. Wealth inequality rose not only in the aggregate but also among the young, and this is due to a major increase in the fraction of households who own zero or very low wealth across all age groups. Critical factors in understanding inequality trends in Japan that we identified are aging demographics, changes in typical household structure, and macroeconomic trends of the past decades including the financial bubble period and a decades-long slow-down thereafter.","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128910241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Understanding the Role of China's Domestic Market in the (Unequal) Growth of World Economy","authors":"Sunghoon Chung","doi":"10.1111/twec.12864","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12864","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the rising role of China’s domestic market expansion from 1995 to 2011 in the world economy’s growth. China maintained high domestic expenditure growth during the entire period, with even bigger increases in the last years, when the global financial crisis and subsequent economic recovery occurred. The expenditures facilitated rapid growth through high demand for durable goods, which are produced across widely fragmented Asian channels. At the same time, China integrated further into the global economy and imported intermediate goods increasingly became embedded in goods for domestic sale. These two forces combined to magnify the impact of China’s market expansion on foreign economies but disproportionately more on its neighboring countries and sectors related to durable goods production. Specifically, our estimates suggest that the expenditure growth in China over the 2009–2011 period added about 1 percentage point to the annual GDP growth rate in Taiwan, Malaysia, and Korea while the NAFTA and EU member countries typically benefited by less than 0.1 percentage point.","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"58 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134422419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}