African Security最新文献

{"title":"Nigeria’s Shi’a Islamic Movement and Evolving Islamist Threat Landscape: Old, New and Future Generators of Radicalization","authors":"Simon Gray, Ibikunle Adeakin","doi":"10.1080/19392206.2019.1639281","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19392206.2019.1639281","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The Islamic Movement in Nigeria (IMN) emerged in the early 1980s as the first Shi’a Islamist organization in Nigeria. However, since the early-2000s this organization has become increasingly confrontational and, at times, violent towards the Nigerian state. Through a qualitative analysis of four key theories concerning the causal dynamics of Islamist radicalization, this article argues that contextual and ideological factors, local and global, generated and radicalized the IMN. These include historical factors, the collapse of the First Republic (1960-1966), military rule, Sunni-Shi’a tensions, the spread and intensification of radical and extremist Islamist ideologies and actors in post-independence Nigeria, and state repression. These factors represent what this study refers to as “old” and “new” generators responsible for the rise and subsequent radicalization of the IMN to date. It concludes with the prognosis that if these generators endure, or worsen, the IMN is likely to undergo a “future”, more violent phase of radicalization that may trigger a full-blown Shi’a insurgency with potential backing from the Iranian regime, in particular via the Quads force and/or Hezbollah.","PeriodicalId":44631,"journal":{"name":"African Security","volume":"12 1","pages":"174 - 199"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/19392206.2019.1639281","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42190827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On the Precipice: Nigeria and a Budding Shi’ite Insurgency","authors":"W. Knight, Temitope B. Oriola","doi":"10.1080/19392206.2019.1649108","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19392206.2019.1649108","url":null,"abstract":"This issue begins with a conceptual article written by the late James Hentz. Colonel Hentz, the founding editor of African Security journal, advances a novel approach to understanding the nature of conflict and war on the continent of Africa. Drawing somewhat on the neo-realist structural theory of the late Kenneth Waltz, Hentz is critical of theories of the proximate or immediate causes of war espoused by many observers of African conflicts. However, he does agree with the general consensus that African states tend to be conflict-prone for a variety of reasons, not the least of which are the artificial nature of these progenies of Western European colonial powers, and the reality that these states were concocted based on the Westphalian territorial state model, in spite of their ethnic heterogeneity. His quibble with the prevailing explanations of why there are so many wars on the African continent has to do with the surface nature of those accounts. Hentz makes the compelling argument that scholars examining the nature of African conflicts need to dig deeper and try to understand underlying causes of such conflicts. Thus, his approach is structural and in that sense one can understand why he draws on Waltz whose theory of the causes of war advances explanatory reasons that are ontologically located in the structure of the international system. But for Hentz, Waltz is both a starting point and a point of departure. Those familiar with Waltz’s seminal work, Man, the State and War, would appreciate that any approach to understanding war will depend on the “level of analysis”. Where one stands on an issue depends very much on where one sits – as the saying goes. For Waltz, one can proffer different explanations for conflict and war if one selects a position from among, what he termed as, the three levels of analysis: the individual, the state, or the international system. Like Waltz, Hentz comes to the conclusion that the most potent explanations for conflict and war are found at the structural level – the systems level. Wars occur because the structure of the system is anarchical (viz., there is no governing authority higher than the sovereign state). There is nothing wrong with looking for explanations of why war occurs, from the perspective of the individual or of the state. But drawing on Waltz, Hentz points out that “not all men are evil and there are different kinds of states, yet conflict is common irrespective of these distinctions.” And, in a sense, both authors are right. If the structure of the system affects the behaviour of the units within that system (states) and the ways in which the individuals within those units behave, then it makes perfect sense to focus one’s attention on the system level of analysis. But, Hentz’s point of departure from Waltz is significant. What happens when the structure of the system affecting the units and individuals is not at the “international” level? What happens if the structure of the African system ","PeriodicalId":44631,"journal":{"name":"African Security","volume":"12 1","pages":"141 - 143"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/19392206.2019.1649108","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48204028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Toward a Structural Theory of War in Africa","authors":"J. Hentz","doi":"10.1080/19392206.2019.1628449","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19392206.2019.1628449","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This essay offers the outlines of a systemic explanation of war in Africa, treating the African state system as the underlying cause of conflict. The essay lays out the logic of structural theory and how it applies to Africa, focusing on the constituent parts of the African state system. Specific attention is paid to three unique aspects of the African state system: juridical statehood, neopatrimonial politics, and strained center-periphery relations. These elements combine to create conflict zones that are characterized by wars across states. This essay provides an explanation for how the Africa weak state system conditions the propensity for war in Africa and the nature and durability of those wars.","PeriodicalId":44631,"journal":{"name":"African Security","volume":"12 1","pages":"144 - 173"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/19392206.2019.1628449","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42192791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dilemma of Nuclear Power Seekers: Does Failed Attempt to Balance Power Hold Back Future Military Developments in Nuclear Power-seeking States?","authors":"V. Iwuoha","doi":"10.1080/19392206.2019.1645448","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19392206.2019.1645448","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Can power-seeking states attain strategic significance if they don’t depend and hinge their military potentials on foreign powers? While Algeria and Libya pursue clandestine nuclear weapons projects with assistance from foreign nuclear powers, they fail to invigorate their military industrial complex for effective combat readiness. I anchor my analysis on balance of power theory to argue that failed attempts to balance power can hold back military developments in a state. I compare levels of conventional military balance in North Africa to show that even though attempts to acquire nuclear weapons failed terribly in the case of Algeria’s and Libya’s military development, it did not inherently undercut their conventional military advantage over their neighbors in North Africa.","PeriodicalId":44631,"journal":{"name":"African Security","volume":"12 1","pages":"234 - 267"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/19392206.2019.1645448","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48394648","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Effective Senegalese Military Enclave: The Armée-Nation “Rolls On”","authors":"Jahara Matisek","doi":"10.1080/19392206.2019.1593004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19392206.2019.1593004","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Senegal is viewed as one of the most stable countries in Africa. Many have hypothesized that this is a product of Senegalese culture, Sufi Islam, and/or French trusteeship. This article contends that Senegal has avoided civil wars and coup d’état due to a critical juncture in civil–military relations in 1962. This created a new path dependence of Armée-Nation ideology, allowing for the creation of a “military enclave”—a strong army in a weak state. Since then, the Senegalese Armed Forces developed bureaucratic-institutional competence that contributed to state-building and improved military effectiveness, all without being a threat to the state or society.","PeriodicalId":44631,"journal":{"name":"African Security","volume":"12 1","pages":"62 - 86"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/19392206.2019.1593004","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43928363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Grievances, Latent Anger and Unrest in Africa","authors":"A. Adelaja, J. George","doi":"10.1080/19392206.2019.1599641","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19392206.2019.1599641","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The conflict literature identifies various types of grievance, greed, aggravating and mitigating factors that contribute to unrest. Drawing on such literature, we conceptualize “latent anger” as an aggregate or conduit measure of these factors and as a precursor to various forms of unrest. Using the multiple indicator–multiple cause model, the relationships between various socioeconomic factors and latent anger and between latent anger and several forms of unrest are estimated based on 1998–2015 country-level panel data on unrest in Africa. Empirical findings show the contributions of unemployment, infant mortality, urbanization, democracy, and government instability in fomenting “latent anger” and its differential impacts on domestic and transnational terrorism, battles, riots, and other forms of unrest. This approach also yielded country indices of the variable “latent anger” that reveal country vulnerabilities to unrest and may be used as an early warning indicator.","PeriodicalId":44631,"journal":{"name":"African Security","volume":"12 1","pages":"111 - 140"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/19392206.2019.1599641","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49468166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"In Memoriam — Professor Pius Adesanmi (1972-2019)","authors":"Temitope B. Oriola, W. Knight","doi":"10.1080/19392206.2019.1611713","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19392206.2019.1611713","url":null,"abstract":"News of the tragic death of Professor Pius Adesanmi in the Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 crash on 10 March 2019 alongside all the 156 passengers and crew (representing some 35 nations) sent shock waves around the world. Nigerian-born Professor Adesanmi was until his death the director of the Institute of African Studies, Carleton University. He was also a close friend to one of us (Temitope). Professor Adesanmi was an outstanding and highly decorated scholar who was a recipient of the inaugural Penguin Prize for African writing in the non-fiction category in 2010. He also received the prestigious Canada Bureau of International Education (BIE) Leadership Award in 2017. Professor Adesanmi was a distinguished teacher, public intellectual, speaker, columnist, satirist, and writer. Professor Adesanmi, a brilliant post-colonial scholar, was very much at the peak of his career and the prime of his life. Statements from top administration officials of Carleton University, Ottawa speak to the texture of his scholarship and the quality of our loss. For instance, a statement by Benoit-Antoine Bacon, the president and vice-chancellor of Carleton University notes that “Pius was a towering figure in African and post-colonial scholarship. Our thoughts and prayers are with his family and all those who knew and loved him, and with everyone who suffered a loss in the tragic crash in Ethiopia”. Carleton’s Dean of the Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Pauline Rankin also states that Professor Adesanmi “worked tirelessly to build the Institute of African Studies, to share his boundless passion for African literature and to connect with and support students. He was a scholar and teacher of the highest caliber who leaves a deep imprint on Carleton.” Professor Adesanmi was a true 21 century Pan-Africanist who enjoyed spectacularly broad and transnational followership. His articles and posts on social media were part of the daily diet of many people around the world. He was a thorn in the flesh of Africa’s political class, especially the Nigerian political elite. Everyone who knew Adesanmi was struck by his decency, humor, intellect, and capacity to connect with others. Muyiwa Balogun-Adesanmi, the widow of Adesanmi, notes that Professor Pius Adesanmi’s “public persona was matched with an uncommon grace, devotion to family and contagious love in the private sphere...‘Bola was a real gentleman, a fine father, and an amazing husband.” Our inaugural editorial was a tribute to James J. Hentz, the founding editor-in-chief of African Security. A piece written by James Hentz has been published in Small Wars and Insurgencies (also from the remarkable stable of Taylor & Francis). Hentz problematizes simplistic portrayals of the ascendance and spread of Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin. He argues that the Boko Haram conflict should be understood through the lenses of three concentric circles. The three circles comprise the particularities of the local origins, a pan-regional I","PeriodicalId":44631,"journal":{"name":"African Security","volume":"12 1","pages":"1 - 2"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/19392206.2019.1611713","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44043172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The APSA and (Complex) International Security Regime Theory: A Critique","authors":"Gino Vlavonou","doi":"10.1080/19392206.2019.1587143","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19392206.2019.1587143","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Regional and subregional organizations have assumed a larger role in maintaining peace and security, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. The African Peace and Security Architecture of the African Union (APSA) increasingly participates militarily in various peacekeeping operations. Policy-focused analyses of the APSA not only characterize it as an international regime but also assume the benefits of this regime. However, this depiction of the APSA as a regime obscures the military dimension of its approach to peace and security throughout the continent. This article argues that a regime analysis romanticizes the APSA, and the type of security that it practices requires more attention. Using a field-inspired approach, this article suggests that the security practiced by the APSA is a result of various internal struggles within different institutions of the APSA and its external relations over the meaning-making of peace and security.","PeriodicalId":44631,"journal":{"name":"African Security","volume":"12 1","pages":"110 - 87"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/19392206.2019.1587143","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47060583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Jihad in Kenya: Understanding Al-Shabaab Recruitment and Terrorist Activity inside Kenya—in Their Own Words","authors":"A. Speckhard, Ardian Shajkovci","doi":"10.1080/19392206.2019.1587142","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19392206.2019.1587142","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Somalia has been a hotspot for terrorism and instability since the early 1990s. Al-Shabaab, an al-Qaeda affiliate in Somalia, has been successful in carrying out a number of deadly attacks outside of Somalia and enticing non-Somali foreign fighters, Somali-Kenyans included, to its ranks. Relying on primary research interviews with sixteen Kenyan al-Shabaab members and their family members, this article highlights psychological, physical, emotional, and financial rewards of joining the terrorist group. In addition to better understanding the trajectory of joining and abandoning the terrorist group, the findings suggest the need to consider using defector and insider voices to denounce violent extremist and terrorist groups.","PeriodicalId":44631,"journal":{"name":"African Security","volume":"12 1","pages":"3 - 61"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/19392206.2019.1587142","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45204311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Explaining Transborder Terrorist Attacks: The Cases of Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab","authors":"Brendon J. Cannon, W. Iyekekpolo","doi":"10.1080/19392206.2018.1560970","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19392206.2018.1560970","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This article demonstrates that transborder attacks by Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab are mainly for rational reasons. Using the Global Terrorism Database, we demonstrate that both groups perform transborder attacks primarily for reactive and rational reasons based on pressure from counterterrorism offensives that resulted in shrinking opportunity spaces within the home state. Concurrently, with the push of the groups towards the periphery of the home states, each group capitalizes on geographically closer opportunity spaces present in neighbouring countries. Our findings also demonstrate that ideological concerns were likely secondary in target selection, thus contradicting a popular but unsubstantiated narrative in terrorism studies.","PeriodicalId":44631,"journal":{"name":"African Security","volume":"11 1","pages":"370 - 396"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/19392206.2018.1560970","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42565390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}