{"title":"Analysis of AI-based techniques for forecasting water level according to rainfall","authors":"Chorong Kim, Chung-Soo Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.12.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.12.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Water level forecasting according to rainfall is important for water resource management and disaster prevention. Existing hydrological analysis is accompanied by difficulties in water level forecasting analysis such as topographic data and model parameter optimization of the area. Recently, with the improvement of AI (Artificial Intelligence) technology, a research using AI technology in the water resource field is being conducted.</p><p>In this research, water level forecasting was performed using an AI-based technique that can capture the relationship between data. As the watershed for the study, the Seolmacheon catchment which has the rich historical hydrological data, was selected. SVM (Support Vector Machine) and a gradient boosting technique were used for AI machine learning. For AI deep learning, water level forecasting was performed using a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network among Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) used for time series analysis.</p><p>The correlation coefficient and NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency), which are mainly used forhydrological analysis, were used as performance indicators. As a result of the analysis, all three techniques performed excellently in water level forecasting. Among them, the LSTM network showed higher performance as the correction period using historical data increased.</p><p>When there is a concern about an emergency disaster such as torrential rainfall in Korea, water level forecasting requires quick judgment. It is thought that the above requirements will be satisfied when an AI-based technique that can forecast water level using historical hydrology data is applied.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 223-228"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603221000461/pdfft?md5=0d0081342740112a8759bcca377f54fc&pid=1-s2.0-S2225603221000461-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47522499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comparison of the performance of a hydrologic model and a deep learning technique for rainfall- runoff analysis","authors":"Chorong Kim, Chung-Soo Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.12.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.12.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Rainfall-runoff analysis is the most important and basic analysis in water resources management and planning. Conventional rainfall-runoff analysis methods generally have used hydrologic models. Rainfall-runoff analysis should consider complex interactions in the water cycle process, including precipitation and evapotranspiration. In this study, rainfall-runoff analysis was performed using a deep learning technique that can capture the relationship between a hydrological model used in the existing methodology and the data itself. The study was conducted in the Yeongsan River basin, which forms a large-scale agricultural area even after industrialization, as the study area. As the hydrology model, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used, and for the deep learning method, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network was used among RNNs (Recurrent Neural Networks) mainly used in time series analysis. As a result of the analysis, the correlation coefficient and NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency), which are performance indicators of the hydrological model, showed higher performance in the LSTM network. In general, the LSTM network performs better with a longer calibration period. In other words, it is worth considering that a data-based model such as an LSTM network will be more useful than a hydrological model that requires a variety of topographical and meteorological data in a watershed with sufficient historical hydrological data.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 215-222"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S222560322100045X/pdfft?md5=d23bfc73ce457cb23b9328c31b5ddd4c&pid=1-s2.0-S222560322100045X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49549411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Review of the achievement of ssop and its inspiration for future regional cooperation","authors":"Jixin Yu, Jinping Liu, Lisa Kou","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.11.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.11.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Countries in Asia and the Pacific are more prone to natural disasters than those in other parts of the world. Because of this, there is an urgent need to continue developing effective, end-to-end early warning systems that lead to an effective response by emergency managers and people at risk. ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee (TC), in cooperation with WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones (PTC), conducted a regional cooperation project on Synergized Standard Operating Procedures for Coastal Multi-Hazards Early Warning System (SSOP) with fund support from ESCAP Multi-Donor Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness in Indian Ocean and South East Asia. SSOP project was conducted successfully and achieved its proposed goals. Its results and achievements greatly benefit the Members not only in the region but also in all other regions of WMO. The paper reviewed its implementation process, strategy and activities; briefed its main achievements including SSOP Manual, capacity building and cooperation mechanism between TC and PTC; summarized the experiences and lessons from project implementation; and highlighted its sustainability. The paper also suggested the approaches to enhance the sustainability of SSOP results and the cooperation between two regional bodies TC and PTC.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 229-236"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603221000357/pdfft?md5=7f7695e738f5c9953ceefccd91b7dd4b&pid=1-s2.0-S2225603221000357-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91780298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rizwan Ahmed , M. Mohapatra , Ram Kumar Giri , Suneet Dwivedi
{"title":"An Evaluation of the Advanced Dvorak Technique (9.0) for the tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean","authors":"Rizwan Ahmed , M. Mohapatra , Ram Kumar Giri , Suneet Dwivedi","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.11.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.11.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) is used by tropical cyclone prediction centres around the world to accurately evaluate the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) from meteorological operational satellites. The algorithm development team has introduced new improvements to the objective ADT to further extend its capabilities and accuracy. A study has therefore undergone to evaluate the new edition of ADT (9.0) based on all the North Indian Ocean Tropical cyclones during 2018, 2019 and 2020 (Total 15 No.). It is found that ADT (9.0) performed well with the conformity of IMD’s best track T. No estimates. ADT is reasonably good in estimating the intensity for T ≥ 4.0 (VSCS to SuCS) and overestimate the intensity for T ≤ 3.5(CS/SCS).</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 201-208"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603221000370/pdfft?md5=f4c58be2e5e14123dfa70172855d5538&pid=1-s2.0-S2225603221000370-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90130925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rizwan Ahmed , Narendra G. Dhangar , Suneet Dwivedi , Ram Kumar Giri , Prakash Pithani , Sachin D. Ghude
{"title":"Characteristics of fog in relation to tropical cyclone intensity: A case study for IGI airport New Delhi","authors":"Rizwan Ahmed , Narendra G. Dhangar , Suneet Dwivedi , Ram Kumar Giri , Prakash Pithani , Sachin D. Ghude","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.09.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.09.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Widespread catastrophic fog episodes in polluted northern India have been attributed to tropical cyclone activity in the Bay of Bengal & Arabian Sea; however, limited studies have been conducted on the effect of tropical cyclone intensity (‘T’ Numbers) on different fog characteristics in Indo Gangetic Basin, Northern India. In this study, different characteristics, including persistence, intensity, and areal extension, were analyzed at the Indira Gandhi International Airport, New Delhi during 1998–99, 2013–14, and 2016–17. A high-intensity tropical cyclone (Severe to Very Severe Cyclonic Storm) has been found to significantly increase the persistence, intensity, and areal extension of fog by inducing strong subsidence over the IGI Airport/Indo-Gangetic Basin. This knowledge is vital for improving the short-term forecasting of fog in the Indo-Gangetic Basin of Northern India and will further support the Government agencies to take preventive safety measures and planning well in advance time.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"10 3","pages":"Pages 170-181"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S222560322100028X/pdfft?md5=d975b3d335f94a5e8e9a879e24179c6a&pid=1-s2.0-S222560322100028X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42273719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"2020 tropical cyclones in the Philippines: A review","authors":"Gemma Dela Cruz Santos","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.09.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.09.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The official website of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said more tropical cyclones (TCs) enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) than anywhere else in the world. With the average of 20 TCs per year, about eight (8) or nine (9) of them are crossing the Philippines. The peak of the typhoon season is July through October, when nearly 70% of all typhoons develop (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/climate/tropical-cyclone-information). Based on the report of the Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC), five of the typhoons that visit the country are destructive and being situated in the “Pacific Ring of Fire” makes the country vulnerable to frequent earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Its geographical location and physical environment also contribute to its high susceptibility to tsunami, sea-level rise, storm surges, landslides, flash/flood/flooding, and drought (https://www.adrc.asia/nationinformation.php?NationCode = 608&Lang = en). For the past years, some typhoons that visited the country brought serious damages and kill many Filipinos by floods and landslides. The researcher comes up with the idea of assessing the aftermath of 2020 typhoons that visited the country. The data used by the researcher were collected from different sources, namely NDRRMC (National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council), PAGASA, social media and other websites. The result of the study reveals that the most destructive typhoon in 2020 that caused huge damage on the infrastructure and agriculture is Ulysses followed by Rolly, Quinta, Ambo, Vicky, Pepito, Ofel, and Marce. Most of the affected areas are those nearer to water bodies, surrounded by mountains with few trees to absorb a huge amount of water and situated in the low-lying areas.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"10 3","pages":"Pages 191-199"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603221000278/pdfft?md5=caca1ea0bcd3101e4f7817b7f2275b67&pid=1-s2.0-S2225603221000278-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41379262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An observational and modeling study of a sea fog event over the yellow and east China seas on 17 March 2014","authors":"Jibing Guo , Jie Xu , Xiangming Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.09.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.09.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery, weather charts, objectively reanalyzed data, the observational data and station sounding data were analyzed to investigate a sea fog event occurred over the Yellow and East China Seas on March 17, 2014. The sounding profiles, weather situations and the related meteorological factors during the development and dissipation stages of this sea fog event were documented. Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model was applied to simulate this sea fog case. The simulated horizontal atmospheric visibility, cloud water, humidity, and vertical wind profile during the different stages of this fog event were analyzed. During the development stage of this sea fog, a southerly lower-jet with 16–18 ms-1, an inversion layer and a cold center over the Yellow Sea were detected. The relative humidity in the fog area was above 95%. The specific humidity over the East China Sea was higher than that over the Yellow Sea. Southerly was dominated in fog area. However, during the dissipation stage of this sea fog, westerly replaced the southerly and at the lower level, southerly jet disappeared. A dry air area formed over the Shandong Peninsula and moved eastwards. Moreover, the WRF modeling result showed that the simulated atmospheric horizontal visibility and cloud water were approximately consistent with the MODIS satellite imagery. Most of cloud water concentrated below 200–400 m, and the cloud water in the southern part of fog area extended to a higher height than the northern part. While both of air temperature and dew-point temperature were close to sea surface temperature.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"10 3","pages":"Pages 182-190"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603221000254/pdfft?md5=e691dea075571674d22caa5570099db1&pid=1-s2.0-S2225603221000254-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43844179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
John A. Knaff , Charles R. Sampson , Matthew E. Kucas , Christopher J. Slocum , Michael J. Brennan , Thomas Meissner , Lucrezia Ricciardulli , Alexis Mouche , Nicolas Reul , Mary Morris , Galina Chirokova , Philippe Caroff
{"title":"Estimating tropical cyclone surface winds: Current status, emerging technologies, historical evolution, and a look to the future","authors":"John A. Knaff , Charles R. Sampson , Matthew E. Kucas , Christopher J. Slocum , Michael J. Brennan , Thomas Meissner , Lucrezia Ricciardulli , Alexis Mouche , Nicolas Reul , Mary Morris , Galina Chirokova , Philippe Caroff","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.09.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.09.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This article provides a review of tropical cyclone (TC) surface wind estimation from an operational forecasting perspective. First, we provide a summary of operational forecast center practices and historical databases. Next, we discuss current and emerging objective estimates of TC surface winds, including algorithms, archive datasets, and individual algorithm strengths and weaknesses as applied to operational TC surface wind forecast parameters. Our review leads to recommendations about required surface coverage – an area covering at least 1100 km from center of TC at a 2-km resolution in the inner-core, and at a frequency of at least once every 6 h. This is enough coverage to support a complete analysis of the TC surface wind field from center to the extent of the 34-kt (17 m s<sup>−1</sup>) winds at 6-h intervals. We also suggest future designs of TC surface wind capabilities include funding to ensure near real-time data delivery to operators so that operational evaluation and use are feasible within proposed budgets. Finally, we suggest that users of archived operational wind radii datasets contact operational organizations to ensure these datasets are appropriate for their needs as the datasets vary in quality through time and space, even from a single organisation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"10 3","pages":"Pages 125-150"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603221000266/pdfft?md5=405475d5a2504542b2dcb2d4800b9107&pid=1-s2.0-S2225603221000266-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48691973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Review and prospects of strategies and measures for typhoon-related disaster risk reduction under public emergencies in TC region","authors":"Jixin Yu , Jinping Liu , Youngkwang Choi","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.05.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.05.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The unexpectedly outbreak of COVID-19 in early 2020, as a public emergency, has impacted the way of human behavior deeply and widely in today's society, including the countermeasures of typhoon-related disaster risk reduction and preparedness in the Members of Typhoon Committee (TC). This paper briefed the impacts due to COVID-19 pandemic on activities of the Committee in 2020; introduced the countermeasures took in National Hydrological and Meteorological Services (NHMS) of TC Members during typhoon season in 2020 for coping with the crisis caused by COVID-19 pandemic; summarized the innovative strategies and countermeasures for dealing with the crisis of special or emergency public situation for typhoon-related disaster risk prevention, preparedness and reduction in future based on the review and analysis of the experiences from Members and international/regional agencies, and the outcomes from TC Integrated Workshop and Annual Session, including strengthening meteorological and hydrological services and value of preparedness; enhancing multi-sectoral coordination mechanisms; promoting the mobile-based data transmission and information dissemination; and increasing installation of home-based hydro-meteorological monitoring stations. The paper also discussed the impact-based forecasting and the application of big-data and AI technology in typhoon-related disaster risk reduction as two new key areas to be taken into consideration in TC updating Strategic Plan 2022–2026.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"10 2","pages":"Pages 116-123"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.05.002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91663620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rhonalyn V. Macalalad , Shichao Xu , Roy A. Badilla , Socrates F. Paat , Bema C. Tajones , Yangbo Chen , Gerry Bagtasa
{"title":"Flash flood modeling in the data-poor basin: A case study in Matina River Basin","authors":"Rhonalyn V. Macalalad , Shichao Xu , Roy A. Badilla , Socrates F. Paat , Bema C. Tajones , Yangbo Chen , Gerry Bagtasa","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.06.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.06.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Forecasting flooding hazards is a very effective non-engineering measure for flood control. Presently, the commonly used forecasting method in simulating flash flood events is through a watershed hydrological model. Many Asia-Pacific countries like the Philippines are prone to frequent hydrometeorological hazards such as tropical cyclones, resulting in frequent heavy rainfall events. However, most rivers in the many basins lack water flow observation data, which makes it challenging to use lumped and data-driven models for flash flood forecasting. With the continuous progress of remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) techniques, the physically-based distributed hydrological model (PBDHMs) has rapidly advanced. PBDHMs can directly determine the model parameters according to the underlying surface characteristics from remotely-sensed data, which makes it possible for flood forecasting in areas with little to virtually no data. In this study, the Matina River basin in Davao City was selected as a case study in simulating a small data-poor basin in the region. The Liuxihe model was used to formulate a forecasting scheme and simulated the past flash flood events. The results show that there is a good correspondence between the past heavy rainfall events and their corresponding simulated river discharges. The results conform to the hydrological regularities, which can be used for flood forecasting and can serve as a baseline for the development of a flood forecasting system in the rivers of Davao City and elsewhere.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"10 2","pages":"Pages 87-95"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.06.003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44185218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}