Tropical Cyclone Research and Review最新文献

{"title":"Review and prospects of strategies and measures for typhoon-related disaster risk reduction under public emergencies in TC region","authors":"Jixin Yu ,&nbsp;Jinping Liu ,&nbsp;Youngkwang Choi","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.05.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.05.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The unexpectedly outbreak of COVID-19 in early 2020, as a public emergency, has impacted the way of human behavior deeply and widely in today's society, including the countermeasures of typhoon-related disaster risk reduction and preparedness in the Members of Typhoon Committee (TC). This paper briefed the impacts due to COVID-19 pandemic on activities of the Committee in 2020; introduced the countermeasures took in National Hydrological and Meteorological Services (NHMS) of TC Members during typhoon season in 2020 for coping with the crisis caused by COVID-19 pandemic; summarized the innovative strategies and countermeasures for dealing with the crisis of special or emergency public situation for typhoon-related disaster risk prevention, preparedness and reduction in future based on the review and analysis of the experiences from Members and international/regional agencies, and the outcomes from TC Integrated Workshop and Annual Session, including strengthening meteorological and hydrological services and value of preparedness; enhancing multi-sectoral coordination mechanisms; promoting the mobile-based data transmission and information dissemination; and increasing installation of home-based hydro-meteorological monitoring stations. The paper also discussed the impact-based forecasting and the application of big-data and AI technology in typhoon-related disaster risk reduction as two new key areas to be taken into consideration in TC updating Strategic Plan 2022–2026.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"10 2","pages":"Pages 116-123"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.05.002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91663620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flash flood modeling in the data-poor basin: A case study in Matina River Basin","authors":"Rhonalyn V. Macalalad ,&nbsp;Shichao Xu ,&nbsp;Roy A. Badilla ,&nbsp;Socrates F. Paat ,&nbsp;Bema C. Tajones ,&nbsp;Yangbo Chen ,&nbsp;Gerry Bagtasa","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.06.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.06.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Forecasting flooding hazards is a very effective non-engineering measure for flood control. Presently, the commonly used forecasting method in simulating flash flood events is through a watershed hydrological model. Many Asia-Pacific countries like the Philippines are prone to frequent hydrometeorological hazards such as tropical cyclones, resulting in frequent heavy rainfall events. However, most rivers in the many basins lack water flow observation data, which makes it challenging to use lumped and data-driven models for flash flood forecasting. With the continuous progress of remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) techniques, the physically-based distributed hydrological model (PBDHMs) has rapidly advanced. PBDHMs can directly determine the model parameters according to the underlying surface characteristics from remotely-sensed data, which makes it possible for flood forecasting in areas with little to virtually no data. In this study, the Matina River basin in Davao City was selected as a case study in simulating a small data-poor basin in the region. The Liuxihe model was used to formulate a forecasting scheme and simulated the past flash flood events. The results show that there is a good correspondence between the past heavy rainfall events and their corresponding simulated river discharges. The results conform to the hydrological regularities, which can be used for flood forecasting and can serve as a baseline for the development of a flood forecasting system in the rivers of Davao City and elsewhere.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"10 2","pages":"Pages 87-95"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.06.003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44185218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flood forecasting scheme of Nanshui reservoir based on Liuxihe model","authors":"Feng Zhou ,&nbsp;Yangbo Chen ,&nbsp;Liyang Wang ,&nbsp;Sheng Wu ,&nbsp;Guangzhe Shao","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.06.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.06.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>China experiences one of the most frequent flood disasters in the world. Establishing accurate and reliable flood prediction program is the key to deal with flood disasters. Nanshui Reservoir Basin, in southern China, belongs to subtropical monsoon climate, with more rain in spring, concentrated rainstorm in summer and typhoon storm in autumn. Floods at dam site are mostly small and medium-sized floods with steep rise and slow fall as typical mountain flood. In order to explore the applicability of Liuxihe model in flood prediction of Nanshui Reservoir, this paper builds up Liuxihe model for Nanshui Reservoir based on DEM, land use and soil type data, and selects a typical flood event to optimize the parameters using particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm and verifies the accuracy of the model by simulating the other floods. Liuxihe model established in this paper indicates a satisfactory performance for flood prediction for Nanshui Reservoir, which can meet the accuracy requirement of flood prediction. Finally, the effects of different river grading and PSO algorithm on flood prediction are discussed. The results show that the PSO algorithm can obviously improve the accuracy of the Liuxihe model for flood forecast in Nanshui Reservoir. The simulation based on four-level channel grading has better results than that based on three-level channel, which indicates increased peak flood value, delayed peak time and closer simulation to the measured value.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"10 2","pages":"Pages 106-115"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.06.002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44930441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flood modeling of Sungai Pinang Watershed under the impact of urbanization","authors":"Sazali Osman ,&nbsp;Lingfang Chen ,&nbsp;Abdul Hafiz Mohammad ,&nbsp;Lixue Xing ,&nbsp;Yangbo Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.06.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.06.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Urbanization has been a worldwide development trend, which regulates river courses, impervious surfaces and drainage systems. Urbanization causes hydrological effects, including increased runoff volumes, peak discharges and flow concentrations. This manuscript selects the Malaysian Sungai Pinang watershed as a case study to illustrate these land use, channel and flooding changes of Asian coastal cities. The Landsat satellite remote sensing images were first used to estimate the land use/land cover changes of the Sungai Pinang watershed by using SVM algorithm, and the results shows the urbanization was very rapid in the past decades, with the urbanization rate reached 46.41% in 2018 based on the build area rate. River channel characteristics also changed significantly, from natural river to concrete channel. Some flood resilience measures for coastal cities experiencing urbanization are also proposed for development and flood mitigation. Moreover, a flood forecasting model of the Sungai Pinang watershed is established herein. The simulation results of the Liuxihe model constructed in this study conforms to hydrological regularities and can provide a technical reference for flood control and disaster reduction. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the uncertainty of the forecast results.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"10 2","pages":"Pages 96-105"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.06.001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91663619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Typhoon Hato's precipitation characteristics based on PERSIANN","authors":"Jiayang Zhang,&nbsp;Yangbo Chen,&nbsp;Chuan Li","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.05.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.05.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Heavy precipitation induced by typhoons is the main driver of catastrophic flooding, and studying precipitation patterns is important for flood forecasting and early warning. Studying the space-time characteristics of heavy precipitation induced by typhoons requires a large range of observation data that cannot be obtained by ground-based rain gauge networks. Satellite-based estimation provides large domains of precipitation with high space-time resolution, facilitating the analysis of heavy precipitation patterns induced by typhoons. In this study, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) satellite data were used to study the temporal and spatial features of precipitation induced by Typhoon Hato, which was the strongest typhoon of 2017 to make landfall in China. The results show that rainfall on the land lasted for six days from the typhoon making landfall to disappearing, reaching the maximum when the typhoon made landfall. Hato produced extremely high accumulated rainfall in South China, almost 300 mm in Guangdong Province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and 260 mm in Hainan Province. The rainfall process was separated into three stages and rainfall was the focus in the second stage (5 h before making landfall to 35 h after making landfall).</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"10 2","pages":"Pages 75-86"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.05.001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"104807917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Erratum regarding missing Declaration of Competing Interest statements in previously published articles","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.12.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.12.001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"10 1","pages":"Pages 73-74"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2021-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.12.001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136471473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Binary interaction of typhoons Soulik and Cimaron in 2018 – Part Ⅰ: Observational characteristics and forecast error","authors":"Eun-Jeong Cha ,&nbsp;Sug-gyeong Yun ,&nbsp;Il-Ju Moon ,&nbsp;Dong-Hoon Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.03.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.03.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>To understand structural changes and forecast error, a case study of binary typhoons in the western North Pacific (WNP) of 2018 was investigated using best track and reanalysis data. Soulik was generated on August 16 and Cimaron was generated on August 18, respectively. The 19th typhoon Soulik and 20th typhoon Cimaron co-existed from August 18 to 24 and approached each other. Soulik was located on the western side and Cimaron was located on the eastern side of the WNP. They were located approximately 1300 km from each other at 00 UTC August 22. The Soulik structure began changing around August 22 and became weak and slow, while Cimaron maintained its intensity, size, and moving speed. This observational evidence is likely caused by the binary interaction between two typhoons within a certain distance and environmental steering flow, such as the location of the North Pacific high and strong jet stream of the northern flank of the North Pacific high.</p><p>Soulik was initially forecasted to make landfall and reach Seoul; however, its track changed from northward to northeastward from August 21 to 23 according to both official guidance and unified model (UM). Four global numerical weather prediction models forecasted different tracks of Soulik. UM and JGSM forecasted a northward track whereas ECMWF and GFS showed a northeastward track for 12 UTC August 21 through 12 UTC August 24. The latter models were similar to the best track. The track forecast error and spread of Soulik were larger than those of Cimaron. The mean absolute error of the maximum wind speed of Soulik was similar to the average of total typhoons in 2018.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"10 1","pages":"Pages 32-42"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2021-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.03.001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42985296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparative analysis of dry intrusion in the different position of pre-TC squall line on typhoon Lekima (1909) and Matsa (0509)","authors":"Xiaohong Lin ,&nbsp;Siyu Yin ,&nbsp;Yiyong Cai ,&nbsp;Nengzhu Fan ,&nbsp;Chao Fu","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.04.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.04.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Using conventional observation data, FY2 satellite data, typhoon data and NCEP reanalysis data, the different position of Pre-TC squall line accompanying the similar tracks with “Lekima” (No. 1909) and “Matsa” (No. 0509) is studied. The article analyzes the circulation background and trigger mechanism generated by the two pre-TC squall lines, and uses various physical quantities such as low-level vertical wind shear, humidity, wind field, wet potential vorticity, and vertical vorticity. Also, try to study the dynamic mechanism of dry intrusion during the process using the Slantwise Vorticity Development (SVD) theory. The results show that: the high-altitude system and the ground trigger mechanism produced are significantly different. On the high-altitude system, the “Lekima” squall line is generated between the continental high pressure and the typhoon with the northeast jet. The “Matsa” squall line occurred between the typhoon and the subtropical high, and near the typhoon inverted trough, which was generated with the strong easterlies. On the ground trigger mechanism, the “Lekima” squall line is generated at the convergence line under the intersection of northeast and northwest air currents. The “Matsa” squall line is generated in the ground inverted trough moves westward and meridional degree increases. During the two pre-TC squall lines, low-level vertical wind shear values are above 16 m·s⁻¹.The dry air intrusion in the lower layer came from the upper and middle troposphere in the vertical direction, and in the east from the west along the latitude in the horizontal direction. Theoretical analysis base on the development of wet potential vorticity, vertical vorticity, and inclined vorticity indicate that the downward transmission of the high potential vorticity band on the upper troposphere, the level of dry invasion, and the air mixing of equivalent potential temperature at high and low levels play an important role in the generation and development of the pre-TC squall line. The slantwise vorticity has a good corresponding relationship with the vertical vorticity over the pre-TC squall line. The two development processes of the pre-TC squall line can be better explained by using the SVD theory.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"10 1","pages":"Pages 43-53"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2021-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.04.001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"112099503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Performance of tropical cyclone forecasts in the western North Pacific in 2017","authors":"Guomin Chen ,&nbsp;Xiping Zhang ,&nbsp;Mengqi Yang ,&nbsp;Hui Yu ,&nbsp;Qing Cao","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.03.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.03.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The forecasts of tropical cyclones (TC) in 2017 from five official guides, six global models, six regional models and six ensemble systems were assessed to study the current capability of track and intensity forecasts for the western North Pacific. The results show that the position errors for official agencies were under 100, 165, 265,335 and 425 km at the lead times of 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 h, respectively. As the forecast lead times increased, the forecasted TCs propagated, on average, too slow for most official guides. It is encouraging to note that all the models had positive skill scores, there is an overall upward trend in the skill scores of the models during from 2010 to 2017. Furthermore, both global and regional models' intensity forecast skill was increasing year by year from 2010 to 2017. For the ensemble prediction systems (EPSs), ECMWF-EPS was the best forecast system for the lead time less than 72 h, beyond the 72 h, the best EPS belong to NCEP-GEFS.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"10 1","pages":"Pages 1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2021-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.03.002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"100402360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Erratum regarding missing Declaration of Competing Interest statements in previously published articles","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.12.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.12.002","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"10 1","pages":"Pages 71-72"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2021-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.12.002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136471468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}