Solar-Terrestrial Physics最新文献

{"title":"United States Solar Investment: A Feasibility Study of Solar Farms in Kentucky","authors":"Youngil Kim, Allie Skaggs, James Ferrell","doi":"10.3390/solar2040028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/solar2040028","url":null,"abstract":"The United States is experiencing a large growth in the solar sector. The U.S. solar power capacity has grown from 0.34 Gigawatts (GW) in 2008 to an estimated 97.2 GW today. However, some states have had difficulty installing large scale solar farms due to concerns regarding geographic location, political climate, or economic factors. Kentucky (KY) is one of the states which is below the national average for solar energy production. However, KY contains a wealth of potential for these types of farms with decent solar irradiation levels and large tracts of unused land for solar farms. For the study, this paper selects three representative areas of KY by using PVWatts and topographical maps which can theoretically produce enough electricity so that KY can meet or exceed the national generation percentage average (2.3% or 2.06 TWh annually in KY’s case). The study analyzes the economic feasibility of solar photovoltaic systems (PV) farms in terms of Cumulative Cash Flow ($) and Payback Time (Year) by using the Cost of Renewable Energy Spreadsheet Tool (CREST). Furthermore, this paper estimates the Average/Median/High output power (kWh) annually for the scenario among three areas in Kentucky, Smithland, Hickman, and Falls of Rough. In this theoretical scenario, an average 2.27 TWh would be generated annually which exceeds the national generation percentage average. Furthermore, by the sixth year, the cumulative cash flow would exceed the breakeven point, proving the feasibility of these solar farms. The annual average power generation estimates for the areas of Smithland, Hickman, and Falls of Rough are 0.3741 TWh, 1.1628 TWh, and 0.731 TWh respectively. The average profit per MWh estimates for the areas of Smithland, Hickman, and Falls of Rough are $11,130.12/MWh, $10,742.46/MWh, and $11,392.01/MWh respectively. According to CREST, the final cumulative cash flow, after the 25-year life span of the panels, would be approximately $624,566,720.","PeriodicalId":43869,"journal":{"name":"Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":"59 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75570953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparison between Time- and Observation-Based Gaussian Process Regression Models for Global Horizontal Irradiance Forecasting","authors":"Shab Gbémou, J. Eynard, S. Thil, S. Grieu","doi":"10.3390/solar2040027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/solar2040027","url":null,"abstract":"With the development of predictive management strategies for power distribution grids, reliable information on the expected photovoltaic power generation, which can be derived from forecasts of global horizontal irradiance (GHI), is needed. In recent years, machine learning techniques for GHI forecasting have proved to be superior to classical approaches. This work addresses the topic of multi-horizon forecasting of GHI using Gaussian process regression (GPR) and proposes an in-depth study on some open questions: should time or past GHI observations be chosen as input? What are the appropriate kernels in each case? Should the model be multi-horizon or horizon-specific? A comparison between time-based GPR models and observation-based GPR models is first made, along with a discussion on the best kernel to be chosen; a comparison between horizon-specific GPR models and multi-horizon GPR models is then conducted. The forecasting results obtained are also compared to those of the scaled persistence model. Four performance criteria and five forecast horizons (10 min, 1 h, 3 h, 5 h, and 24 h) are considered to thoroughly assess the forecasting results. It is observed that, when seeking multi-horizon models, using a quasiperiodic kernel and time as input is favored, while the best horizon-specific model uses an automatic relevance determination rational quadratic kernel and past GHI observations as input. Ultimately, the choice depends on the complexity and computational constraints of the application at hand.","PeriodicalId":43869,"journal":{"name":"Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":"28 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72462136","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Solar Forecasts Based on the Clear Sky Index or the Clearness Index: Which Is Better?","authors":"P. Lauret, R. Alonso-Suárez, Josselin Le Gal La Salle, M. David","doi":"10.3390/solar2040026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/solar2040026","url":null,"abstract":"In the realm of solar forecasting, it is common to use a clear sky model output to deseasonalise the solar irradiance time series needed to build the forecasting models. However, most of these clear sky models require the setting of atmospheric parameters for which accurate values may not be available for the site under study. This can hamper the accuracy of the prediction models. Normalisation of the irradiance data with a clear sky model leads to the construction of forecasting models with the so-called clear sky index. Another way to normalize the irradiance data is to rely on the extraterrestrial irradiance, which is the irradiance at the top of the atmosphere. Extraterrestrial irradiance is defined by a simple equation that is related to the geometric course of the sun. Normalisation with the extraterrestrial irradiance leads to the building of models with the clearness index. In the solar forecasting domain, most models are built using time series based on the clear sky index. However, there is no empirical evidence thus far that the clear sky index approach outperforms the clearness index approach. Therefore the goal of this preliminary study is to evaluate and compare the two approaches. The numerical experimental setup for evaluating the two approaches is based on three forecasting methods, namely, a simple persistence model, a linear AutoRegressive (AR) model, and a non-linear neural network (NN) model, all of which are applied at six sites with different sky conditions. It is shown that normalization of the solar irradiance with the help of a clear sky model produces better forecasts irrespective of the type of model used. However, it is demonstrated that a nonlinear forecasting technique such as a neural network built with clearness time series can beat simple linear models constructed with the clear sky index.","PeriodicalId":43869,"journal":{"name":"Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":"307 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79869789","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Topside ionosphere during solar cosmic ray bursts and Forbush decreases in galactic cosmic rays","authors":"V. Yanchukovsky, A. Belinskaya","doi":"10.12737/stp-83202205","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12737/stp-83202205","url":null,"abstract":"The paper considers the behavior of the upper ionosphere at heights of the F2 layer during Forbush decreases in galactic cosmic rays (GCR FDs) and solar cosmic ray (SCR) bursts. We use the results of long-term continuous observations of cosmic rays and the ionosphere in Novosibirsk for the period from 1968 to 2021. The ionospheric disturbances in the F2 layer during GCR FDs, which were accompanied by a magnetic storm, took the form of an ionospheric storm negative phase. The scale of the negative phase of the ionospheric F-layer disturbance increases with increasing Dst index of the geomagnetic storm. This increase in the amplitude of the ionospheric disturbance becomes more and more significant depending on the magnitude of Forbush decreases. A burst of the amplitude of the daily variation in the F2-layer critical frequency occurred eight days after SCR bursts and GCR FD front. We assume that this burst might have been caused by disturbances in the lower atmosphere due to significant variations in the intensity of SCR and GCR fluxes.","PeriodicalId":43869,"journal":{"name":"Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45814336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparison between probability density functions of vertical electric current in solar active regions based on HMI/SDO and SOT/Hinode data","authors":"A. Nechaeva, I. Zimovets, I. Sharykin","doi":"10.12737/stp-83202210","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12737/stp-83202210","url":null,"abstract":"Studying electric currents in solar active regions (AR) is an essential step in understanding solar activity in general and solar flares in particular. In this paper, we compare probability density functions of vertical electric current PDF(|jz|) in several active regions, using HMI/SDO and SOT/Hinode photospheric magnetic field data. We have established that at a high value (above the noise level of |jz| ~9•10³ statampere/cm²) of current structures of ARs these functions are nearly identical. The main difference in PDFs for low (noise) jz is due to differences in sensitivity of these two instruments. We have also found that the criterion of pixel selection from magnetic field strength is inapplicable, and the similarity between PDFs is determined by high jz. For all ARs under study we have calculated the power law exponent of the PDF tail for the two instruments, which coincide within their errors for the current structures with current values above noise level. Thus there is no significant difference as to which instrument is used for analyzing probability density functions in high current parts of ARs where flares are localized.","PeriodicalId":43869,"journal":{"name":"Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45313978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Connection of total electron content disturbances with AE index of geomagnetic activity during geomagnetic storm in March 2015","authors":"Kupriyan V. Belyuchenko, M. Klimenko, V. Klimenko, K. Ratovsky","doi":"10.12737/stp-83202206","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12737/stp-83202206","url":null,"abstract":"Ionospheric response to the March 17, 2015 geomagnetic storm has been investigated using simulations of the Global Self-consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Protonosphere (GSM TIP) [Dmitriev et al., 2017; Klimenko et al., 2018]. GSM TIP demonstrates results that do not contradict experimental data. This paper deals with GSM TIP simulated disturbances in the Total Electron Content (TEC) at different longitudes and zonal averages on March 17–23, 2015. At all longitudes, we can observe the existence of a band of TEC positive disturbances, located over the geomagnetic equator, and the formation of an after-storm ionospheric effect that appeared as positive TEC disturbances at midlatitude 3–5 days after the geomagnetic storm main phase. We have analyzed the dependence of disturbances of the thermosphere-ionosphere system (total electron content, n(N2), n(O), zonal electric field, meridional component of the thermospheric wind at a height of 300 km, and electron temperature at a height of 1000 km), calculated by GSM TIP from variations in the geomagnetic activity index AE. The analysis is based on Pearson’s correlation coefficients, presented as maps of the dependence of the correlation coefficient on UT and latitude for selected longitudes and for zonal averaged values. The results suggest that at high latitudes of the Northern and Southern hemispheres the correlation coefficient of TEC disturbances and AE variations is close to 1 at all longitudes in the period from 12 UT to 23 UT. From 9 UT to 12 UT, the minimum value of the correlation coefficient is observed at all latitudes and longitudes. The time intervals of the correlation values are associated with the features of a particular geomagnetic storm, for which, for example, the interval from 12 UT to 23 UT on March 17, 2015 corresponds to the geomagnetic storm main phase. We discuss possible mechanisms for the formation of such a relationship between simulated TEC disturbances and the AE index.","PeriodicalId":43869,"journal":{"name":"Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43418604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Numerical analysis of the spatial structure of Alfvén waves in a finite pressure plasma in a dipole magnetosphere","authors":"Aleksandr Petrashchuk, P. Mager, D. Klimushkin","doi":"10.12737/stp-83202201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12737/stp-83202201","url":null,"abstract":"We have carried out a numerical analysis of the spatial structure of Alfvén waves in a finite pressure inhomogeneous plasma in a dipole model of the magnetosphere. We have considered three magnetosphere models differing in maximum plasma pressure and pressure gradient. The problem of wave eigenfrequencies was addressed. We have established that the poloidal frequency can be either greater or less than the toroidal frequency, depending on plasma pressure and its gradient. The problem of radial wave vector component eigenvalues was considered. We have found points of Alfvén wave reflection in various magnetosphere models. The wave propagation region in the cold plasma model is shown to be significantly narrower than that in models with finite plasma pressure. We have investigated the structure of the main Alfvén wave harmonic when its polarization changes in three magnetosphere models. A numerical study into the effect of plasma pressure on the structure of behavior of all Alfvén wave electric and magnetic field components has been carried out. We have established that for certain parameters of the magnetosphere model the magnetic field can have three nodes, whereas in the cold plasma model there is only one. Moreover, the longitudinal magnetic field component changes sign twice along the magnetic field line.","PeriodicalId":43869,"journal":{"name":"Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43272921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigation of the Thermal Stability of a Solar Absorber Processed through a Hydrothermal Technique","authors":"S. Abdullahi, R. Akoba, J. Sackey, S. Khamlich, S. Halindintwali, Z. Nuru, M. Maaza","doi":"10.3390/solar2040025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/solar2040025","url":null,"abstract":"In this work, we study the thermal stability of a hydrothermally treated stainless steel (SS) selective solar absorber by annealing in air in a temperature range between 300 °C and 700 °C for a soaking time of 2 h. Thermal stability testing in the presence of air is critical if the vacuum is breached. Therefore, the SS was characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), mechanical, and optical techniques. The XRD analysis shows that the grain size of the as-treated absorber is 67 nm, whereas those of the annealed absorbers were found to be in the range between 66 and 38 nm. The phase of the as-treated and annealed SS was further identified by XRD as Fe2O3. The EDS result shows that the elemental components of the SS were C, Cr, Fe, and O. The strain (ε) and stress (σ) calculated for the as-treated absorber are 1.2 × 10−1 and −2.9 GPa, whereas the annealed absorbers are found in the range of 4.4 × 10−1 to 5.2 × 10−1 and −121.6 to −103.2 GPa, respectively, at 300–700 °C. The as-treated SS absorbers exhibit a good spectra selectivity of 0.938/0.431 = 2.176, which compares with 0.941/0.403 = 2.335 after being annealed at 300 °C and 0.884/0.179 = 4.939 after being annealed at 700 °C. These results indicate a small improvement in absorptivity (0.941) and emissivity (0.403) after annealing at 300 °C, followed by a significant decrease after annealing at 700 °C. The obtained analysis confirms that the annealed SS absorber exhibits excellent selectivity and is suitable to withstand any thermal condition (≤700 °C) in air. Thus, using a cost-effective approach as demonstrated in this study, the as-treated and annealed SS absorber could be used for photo-thermal conversion applications.","PeriodicalId":43869,"journal":{"name":"Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76870932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Measuring Concentrated Solar Radiation Flux in a Linear Fresnel-Type Solar Collector","authors":"J. Fernández-Reche, L. Valenzuela, Diego Pulido-Iparraguirre","doi":"10.3390/solar2040024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/solar2040024","url":null,"abstract":"Linear Fresnel solar collectors are a promising and emerging solution to contribute to renewable heat supply in industrial processes with thermal energy demand in the medium temperature range (<250 °C). An innovative linear Fresnel collector (LFC) prototype has been designed, patented, and built at the Plataforma Solar de Almería (PSA), Spain. This work presents the applied methodology, experimental device, and results obtained in the measurement of the flux density of concentrated solar radiation in the focal plane of the solar collector. The experimental results confirm that an average flux density of (9.8 ± 0.6) kW/m2 was obtained with a direct normal solar irradiance of (870 ± 10) W/m2 in tests performed in May 2002, which is a result similar to that obtained in optical simulations of the system.","PeriodicalId":43869,"journal":{"name":"Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89845501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optical Property and Stability Study of CH3(CH2)3NH3)2(CH3NH3)3Pb4I13 Ruddlesden Popper 2D Perovskites for Photoabsorbers and Solar Cells and Comparison with 3D MAPbI3","authors":"K. Kranthiraja, Sujan Aryal, Mahdi Temsal, Mohin Sharma, A. Kaul","doi":"10.3390/solar2040023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/solar2040023","url":null,"abstract":"Three dimensional (3D) perovskite solar cells (PSCs) are a promising candidate for third-generation photovoltaics (PV) technology, which aims to produce efficient photon conversion devices to electricity using low-cost fabrication processes. Hybrid organic-inorganic perovskites for-lmed using low-cost solution processing are explored here, which have experienced a stupendous rise in power conversion efficiency (PCE) over the past decade and serve as a prime candidate for third-generation PV systems. While significant progress has been made, the inherent hygroscopic nature and stability issue of the 3D perovskites (3DPs) are an impediment to its commercialization. In this work, we have studied two-dimensional (2D) organometallic halide (CH3(CH2)3NH3)2(CH3NH3)n−1PbnI3n+1) layered perovskites in the Ruddlesden Popper structure, represented as BA2MA3Pb4I13 for the n = 4 formulation, for both photoabsorbers in a two-terminal architecture and solar cells, given that these material are considered to be inherently more stable. In the two-terminal photo absorber devices, the photocurrent and responsivity were measured as a function of incoming laser wavelength, where the location of the peak current was correlated to the emission spectrum arising from the 2DP film using photoluminescence (PL) spectroscopy. The 2D (BA)2(MA)3Pb4I13 films were then integrated into an n-i-p solar cell architecture, and PV device figures of merit tabulated, while our 3D MAPbI3 served as the reference absorber material. A comparative study of the 3DP and 2DP film stability was also conducted, where freshly synthesized films were inspected on FTO substrates and compared to those exposed to elevated humidity levels, and material stability was gauged using various material characterization probes, such as PL and UV-Vis optical absorption spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy and X-ray diffraction. While the PCE of the 3D-PSCs was higher than the 2D-PSCs, our results confirm the enhanced environmental stability of the 2DP absorber films compared to the 3DP absorbers, suggesting their promise to address the stability issue broadly encountered in 3D PSCs toward third-generation PV technology.","PeriodicalId":43869,"journal":{"name":"Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78251434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}