Горячая тема, Журнал Нэа, М. Э. Дмитриев, РАНХиГС, Москва
{"title":"Scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions for Russia","authors":"Горячая тема, Журнал Нэа, М. Э. Дмитриев, РАНХиГС, Москва","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-10","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this study is to develop and quantify possible scenarios for the implementation of climate policy, as well as the opportunities for achieving carbon neutrality by the middle of the 21st century or earlier. For this purpose, two scenarios are considered — basic and transformational. The baseline scenario includes measures that least affect the existing socio-political and economic interests with the greatest contribution from deforestation, modernization of technologies for the use of hydrocarbons in industry and cleaner transport. The limitations of the baseline scenario will not allow achieving carbon neutrality by the middle of the 21st century. The transformational scenario takes into account the most realistic options for closing the gap between the offi cial scenario developed by the Government of the Russian Federation shortly before the 2021 UN Climate Change Conference and more ambitious options for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 or earlier. In our transformational scenario, Russia reaches carbon neutrality 10 years earlier, by 2040, and subsequently turns into a net sink of greenhouse gases, including due to the huge potential of forest plantations.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69823893","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Горячая тема, Журнал Нэа, M. R. Salikhov, Т.А. Романова
{"title":"Scenarios of transformation: Decarbonization of the Russian economy","authors":"Горячая тема, Журнал Нэа, M. R. Salikhov, Т.А. Романова","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-12","url":null,"abstract":"The paper presents a forecast of the structure of power sector in Russia in 2050 under various scenarios for the transformation of the energy system and the possible prices for greenhouse gas emissions. CO2 emissions in the power sector by 2050 can be 32.7% lower compared to 2020 in sustainable development scenario (SDS) with an average CO2 price of $27/t over the period. In this scenario, the capacity structure will shift in favor of an increase in the share of nuclear and gas generation with a reduction in coal generation. In the scenario of zero greenhouse gas emissions (Net Zero), the price of CO2 is 37% higher compared to the scenario of sustainable development ($37/t). The implementation of the latter scenario will reduce emissions in the power industry by 40% compared to 2020. The article gives recommendations for changing the economic policy that would accelerate the decarbonization of the Russian economy and identifi es key risks of decarbonization.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69824016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Inefficiency of road concessions in Russia: exception or rule?","authors":"S. P. Bushansky, Central Economics","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2021-50-2-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2021-50-2-5","url":null,"abstract":"It explores the contradiction between the optimistic expectations of public-private partnership (PPP) and the estimated socio-economic unprofitability of road concessions in Russia. It is shown that special national guidelines for assessment of PPP efficiency are not a barrier to the approvement of inappropriate, from a public point of view, investment projects. The official approval of such regulations suggests that the Russian design system is skeptical about the possibility of a compromise between public efficiency and PPP projects. In foreign practice, the regulatory traditional requirements for the positive social effect from the development of toll roads are generally preserved, but the expediency of toll (in comparison with free road) is usually «confirmed» by listing its theoretical advantages. The systematic absence of correct calculations, including the examples in methodological documents, indicates the prevailing skepticism of the decision-making system towards rationale of tolling. The main conclusion of the article is that the theoretical notions of PPP as an effective mechanism and at the same time the limited practical choice of its schemes, with an obligatory direct user tolls, are the reason for the mimicry of the investment design system, which is forced to arrange inefficient solutions for road construction.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69819393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"China in Quesnay’s doctrine: Interpretations, translations, cultural aspects","authors":"O. Borokh","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2021-50-2-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2021-50-2-7","url":null,"abstract":"The paper analyzes the Chinese influences on the doctrine of the French physiocrat François Quesnay from the perspective of the cultural specifics of the perception of economic and political ideas. The approaches of Chinese researchers were impacted by Marxist methodology, sinocentric views and fragmentary use of primary sources. The application of the Marxist concept of socio-economic formations supported the arguments that feudal Confucianism could not influence the views of physiocrats, which reflected the emergence of capitalist relations. In the 18th century opponents of the physiocrats used the comparison of the Tableau Économique with the scheme of the Chinese Book of Changes to disqualify Quesnay’s doctrine. For Chinese researchers this comparison became a confirmation of the value of the Tableau Économique and an incentive to search for the ideas of circular flows and equilibrium in both tables. The study of Despotism in China content confirms its connection with the actual historical China. It is concluded that Chinese scholars seek to interpret the historical precedent of the influence of Confucian thought on Quesnay’s doctrine in the context of plans to increase the global clout of China’s social sciences.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69819442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Regions of Russia during a pandemic: Socio-economic dynamics and budget revenues","authors":"N. Zubarevich","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2021-51-3-10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2021-51-3-10","url":null,"abstract":"It is difficult to identify the most and the least affected regions in the pandemic crisis, since the dynamics of different indicators did not coincide. Industrial output decline was deeper in oil-extracting regions. Agglomerations of federal cities, recreation regions of the South and the republics of the North Caucasus had the strongest decline in the service sector. The dynamics of labor markets in the regions during the pandemic strongly depended on institutional factors – state support for employed in small businesses and assistance to the unemployed. Small business employment in most regions did not decline. The level of registered unemployment grew faster in the largest agglomerations, and the slowest emerging from the crisis were the underdeveloped republics. After a strong decline in the population incomes in the 2nd quarter of 2020 due to lockdowns, a gradual convergence of regional dynamics began, but without a noticeable improvement. In terms of population income and employment, Moscow is recovering from the crisis much faster thanks to its huge competitive advantages. The dynamics of own revenues of regional budgets during pandemic is associated with the structure of the economy and the importance of profit tax in the budget revenues. The largest losses in 2020 were experienced by the oil-extracting regions due to a sharp reduction in profit tax. Since 2021, the own revenues of the budgets of metallurgical regions grew the fastest due to a threefold increase in this tax. Lockdowns in the first wave of the pandemic turned out to be less significant because the number of regions with a decline in their own revenues in the 2nd quarter of 2020 was 1,5 times less than in 2020.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69819954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Economic policies in a pandemic","authors":"A. Kireyev, J. Ferrer","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2021-49-1-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2021-49-1-7","url":null,"abstract":"What economic policy space does a country have to respond to a crisis provoked by the Covid-19 pandemic? To assess this space, the article calculates the nominal policy space index as a sum of each country’s fiscal space, monetary space, and reserve space. This nominal policy space is then adjusted for institutional features of individual countries to derive the effective policy space index. By way of illustration, the article applies the index to the Covid-19 crisis. It finds that at least 95 countries (about 11 percent of global GDP and 23 percent of population) have no or very limited policy space and may require emergency assistance.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69818657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Is the difference in consumption and income an indication of petty corruption?","authors":"T. Zhuravleva, Russia Saint Petersburg","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2021-49-1-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2021-49-1-4","url":null,"abstract":"Based on micro-level data on reported household earnings, expenditures and assets, provided by the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) for the period 2000–2013, it is found that households with workers in the public sector receive lower earnings than households with members employed in the private sector but enjoy the same level of consumption. Controlling for the reported level of earnings, private households do not show a significantly higher probability of possessing summer cottages (dachas), cars and computers, or living in better housing conditions, or having a higher level of monetary savings. The differences in assets cannot be reconciled with the sizeable expenditure-income gap found. The precautionary motives of workers are not able to reconcile these discrepancies either: neither attitude to risk, nor risk itself, differ between individuals employed in the private and public sectors. It is hypothesized that employees continue working in the public sector despite their low rate of official pay, because of unreported income they receive, or bribes.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69819026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
E. Ostrovskaya, D. Mamontov, K. A. Spiridonov, I. V. Levyy
{"title":"Analysis of interregional migration flows in Russia in the context of certain types of migration","authors":"E. Ostrovskaya, D. Mamontov, K. A. Spiridonov, I. V. Levyy","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2021-50-2-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2021-50-2-2","url":null,"abstract":"The impact of interregional migration on regional economic and social sphere necessitates the determination of migration factors. An analysis of existing studies has shown that gravity models can be considered the most effective tool for migration flows analysis. At the same time existing studies show a weak elaboration of approaches that involve the separation of migration into different types depending on the goal of the relocation. The purpose of the article is to analyze the interregional migration flows in the context of types of migration identifying a set of factors that determine a particular type of migration. The main result obtained by the authors is the determination of three regional clusters that attract a certain type of migrants. Clustering was carried out using a set of indicators with a model-oriented clustering methods. The main conclusions made in the article are related to improving the quality of models when dividing regions into clusters and including different variables for certain types of migration. However, the authors note that the input data for the analysis is somewhat noisy, since it contains migrants of all ages. Therefore, the obtained regional groupings by type of migration are only the first approximation of differentiation by type of arriving or departing citizens. The results of the study can be used for further work on the definition of the determinants of interregional migration, as well as for studies on the impact of migration on regional labor markets and socioeconomic situation of regions.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69819205","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Pishnyak, N. Khalina, E. Nazarbaeva, A. Goriainova
{"title":"The level and the profile of persistent poverty in Russia","authors":"A. Pishnyak, N. Khalina, E. Nazarbaeva, A. Goriainova","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2021-50-2-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2021-50-2-3","url":null,"abstract":"Experts who work on the poverty issues agree that the group of poor is very heterogeneous. Based on duration of living below the subsistence level, authors identify persistent and transitory poverty. Income of those who face persistent poverty stays below the poverty line for a long time, while those who suffer from transitory poverty have unstable situation: after overcoming poverty for some time many of them can face the problem of low income again. Different methods exist for evaluating of the level of persistent and transitory poverty on both panel and cross-sectional data. The article presents the detailed description of advantages and limitations of different approaches to persistent poverty measurement. After consideration of these approaches the analysis of persistent poverty in Russia on RLMS HSE data is performed. Taking into account the huge set of previous studies we evaluate the share of persistently poor population according to methodology adopted in European countries, the profile of persistent poverty is also described. The results are compared with already existing data about chronic poverty in Europe.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69819279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The community of researchers and “academic performance” evaluation","authors":"L. Jakobson","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2021-50-2-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2021-50-2-8","url":null,"abstract":"An evaluation of “academic performance” is considered in the context of performance management in the sphere of science. An emphasis is made on the dependence of the evaluation on interests and, accordingly, on an inherently unrealistic development of an “objectively correct” evaluation which would be unanimously approved by those whose interests are not identical. A variety of researchers’ interest is stated together with a lack of institutionalized norms for working out a consolidated position. At the same time, the paper points out the deep-rooted nonidentical nature of the interests of scientists and those who design and implement the policy in the sphere of science. The demand of policy subjects for the formalization of evaluations, even at the cost of roughening the realities is also underscorred. Considering these realities, the conclusion is made about the hopelessness of the search for ideal solutions. At the same time, another conclusion is made that “academic performance” evaluation implemented in the sphere of science management could gradually become more acceptable for researchers. However, it depends not so much on the study and discussions of various evaluation systems as on the development of the research community and the formation of conditions for an effective dialogue between the latter and the subjects of the science policy.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69819375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}