Scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions for Russia

IF 0.3 Q4 ECONOMICS

Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-10

Горячая тема, Журнал Нэа, М. Э. Дмитриев, РАНХиГС, Москва

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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to develop and quantify possible scenarios for the implementation of climate policy, as well as the opportunities for achieving carbon neutrality by the middle of the 21st century or earlier. For this purpose, two scenarios are considered — basic and transformational. The baseline scenario includes measures that least affect the existing socio-political and economic interests with the greatest contribution from deforestation, modernization of technologies for the use of hydrocarbons in industry and cleaner transport. The limitations of the baseline scenario will not allow achieving carbon neutrality by the middle of the 21st century. The transformational scenario takes into account the most realistic options for closing the gap between the offi cial scenario developed by the Government of the Russian Federation shortly before the 2021 UN Climate Change Conference and more ambitious options for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 or earlier. In our transformational scenario, Russia reaches carbon neutrality 10 years earlier, by 2040, and subsequently turns into a net sink of greenhouse gases, including due to the huge potential of forest plantations.

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俄罗斯温室气体排放情景

本研究的目的是制定和量化实施气候政策的可能情景，以及到21世纪中叶或更早实现碳中和的机会。为此，考虑了两种场景——基本场景和转换场景。基线情景包括对现有社会政治和经济利益影响最小的措施，而对森林砍伐、工业中使用碳氢化合物的技术现代化和更清洁的运输的贡献最大。基线情景的局限性将不允许在21世纪中叶之前实现碳中和。转型方案考虑了最现实的方案，以缩小俄罗斯联邦政府在2021年联合国气候变化大会前不久制定的官方方案与2050年或更早实现碳中和的更雄心勃勃的方案之间的差距。在我们的转型情景中，俄罗斯到2040年将提前10年达到碳中和，随后将成为温室气体的净汇，其中包括由于森林种植园的巨大潜力。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.00

自引率

20.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Key Journal''s objectives: bring together economists of different schools of thought across the Russian Federation; strengthen ties between Academy institutes, educational establishments and economic research centers; improve the quality of Russian economic research and education; integrate economic science and education; speed up the integration of Russian economic science in the global mainstream of economic research. The Journal publishes both theoretical and empirical articles, devoted to all aspects of economic science, which are of interest for wide range of specialists. It welcomes high-quality interdisciplinary projects and economic studies employing methodologies from other sciences such as physics, psychology, political science, etc. Special attention is paid to analyses of processes occurring in the Russian economy. Decisions about publishing of articles are based on a double-blind review process. Exceptions are short notes in the section "Hot Topic", which is usually formed by special invitations and after considerations of the Editorial Board. The only criterion to publish is the quality of the work (original approach, significance and substance of findings, clear presentation style). No decision to publish or reject an article will be influenced by the author belonging to whatever public movement or putting forward ideas advocated by whatever political movement. The Journal comes out four times a year, each issue consisting of 12 to 15 press sheets. Now it is published only in Russian. The English translations of the Journal issues are posted on the Journal website as open access resources.