Scenarios of transformation: Decarbonization of the Russian economy

IF 0.3 Q4 ECONOMICS

Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-12

Горячая тема, Журнал Нэа, M. R. Salikhov, Т.А. Романова

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Abstract

The paper presents a forecast of the structure of power sector in Russia in 2050 under various scenarios for the transformation of the energy system and the possible prices for greenhouse gas emissions. CO2 emissions in the power sector by 2050 can be 32.7% lower compared to 2020 in sustainable development scenario (SDS) with an average CO2 price of $27/t over the period. In this scenario, the capacity structure will shift in favor of an increase in the share of nuclear and gas generation with a reduction in coal generation. In the scenario of zero greenhouse gas emissions (Net Zero), the price of CO2 is 37% higher compared to the scenario of sustainable development ($37/t). The implementation of the latter scenario will reduce emissions in the power industry by 40% compared to 2020. The article gives recommendations for changing the economic policy that would accelerate the decarbonization of the Russian economy and identifi es key risks of decarbonization.

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转型情景:俄罗斯经济脱碳

本文预测了2050年俄罗斯电力部门在能源系统转型的各种情况下的结构以及可能的温室气体排放价格。在可持续发展情景(SDS)中，到2050年，电力部门的二氧化碳排放量可比2020年降低32.7%，期间二氧化碳平均价格为27美元/吨。在这种情况下，产能结构将转向有利于增加核能和天然气发电的份额，同时减少煤炭发电。在温室气体零排放情景(净零排放)中，二氧化碳的价格比可持续发展情景(37美元/吨)高出37%。与2020年相比，后一种方案的实施将使电力行业的排放量减少40%。本文提出了改变经济政策的建议，这将加速俄罗斯经济的脱碳，并确定了脱碳的主要风险。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.00

自引率

20.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Key Journal''s objectives: bring together economists of different schools of thought across the Russian Federation; strengthen ties between Academy institutes, educational establishments and economic research centers; improve the quality of Russian economic research and education; integrate economic science and education; speed up the integration of Russian economic science in the global mainstream of economic research. The Journal publishes both theoretical and empirical articles, devoted to all aspects of economic science, which are of interest for wide range of specialists. It welcomes high-quality interdisciplinary projects and economic studies employing methodologies from other sciences such as physics, psychology, political science, etc. Special attention is paid to analyses of processes occurring in the Russian economy. Decisions about publishing of articles are based on a double-blind review process. Exceptions are short notes in the section "Hot Topic", which is usually formed by special invitations and after considerations of the Editorial Board. The only criterion to publish is the quality of the work (original approach, significance and substance of findings, clear presentation style). No decision to publish or reject an article will be influenced by the author belonging to whatever public movement or putting forward ideas advocated by whatever political movement. The Journal comes out four times a year, each issue consisting of 12 to 15 press sheets. Now it is published only in Russian. The English translations of the Journal issues are posted on the Journal website as open access resources.