ERN: Consumption最新文献

{"title":"Regular Consistent Preferences","authors":"Maximilian Mihm, Kemal Ozbek","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3195371","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3195371","url":null,"abstract":"In a dynamic choice environment, an agent's tastes may change over time, leading to a conflict between plans made today and choices made in the future. In response, a consistent planner restricts herself to plans that she will actually follow, by anticipating today how she will rank continuation plans in the future. Since the agent's expected future rankings often play an important role in policy analysis, they need to be elicited from observable choices. In this paper, we provide a method to elicit expected future rankings by considering the agent's preferences today over dynamic decision problems. Our identification strategy exploits that, in many applications of the consistent planning model, future rankings are monotone with respect to a partial order, which provides an unambiguous ranking of some alternatives. Our results are developed in a general framework, and can therefore be used to elicit expected future rankings in many applications of the consistent planning model. To illustrate our findings, we consider a dynamic consumption problem with quasi-hyperbolic discounting, and show how the agent's expectations about her present-bias in the future can be elicited from simple choice experiments today.","PeriodicalId":431230,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Consumption","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132445064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Hedging Recessions","authors":"Nicole Branger, L. S. Larsen, Claus Munk","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3032939","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3032939","url":null,"abstract":"Traditional life-cycle models conclude that individuals should be fully invested in stocks when young -- in stark contrast to observed stock holdings -- and then gradually replace stocks with bonds as retirement is approaching. We show that a carefully specified and calibrated model of unemployment risk reduces the early-life stock holdings dramatically. The reduction is driven by the decline in current and expected future income caused by unemployment, the relatively high unemployment risk of young adults, and the business cycle variations in un- and reemployment probabilities that tend to deteriorate exactly when stocks perform poorly.","PeriodicalId":431230,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Consumption","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132823481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Three Essays on Consumption & Geography","authors":"Jonathon Lecznar","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3162389","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3162389","url":null,"abstract":"This document contains the first two chapters from my dissertation, titled Three Essays on Consumption and Geography, which use data provided by the Kilts Center for Marketing Data Center. Together they highlight the importance of accounting for geographic differences in new product entry to accurately measure real consumption using household-level spending data and a model to construct cost-of-living-adjusted price indices. The first chapter estimates real consumption's growth rate and volatility in light of three new facts documenting geographic differences in consumption: (1) consumers in separate markets buy different products, (2) a product's market share varies geographically conditional on relative price, and (3) product variety growth and its cyclicality varies geographically. These facts suggest that existing methods to account for product variety changes overstate the benefits to consumers by overlooking geographic diversity in consumption baskets. Quantitatively, focusing on aggregate product variety changes overstates real consumption growth by 2.75 percentage points primarily by assuming that local product entry benefits all consumers nationally. Nonetheless, accounting for product variety changes is important. Our real consumption series grows 3 percentage points faster than a statistical agency benchmark and has twice the volatility due to product variety’s procyclicality. The second chapter examines how accounting for local product variety changes alters aggregate welfare estimates and our understanding of regional heterogeneity. Concentrating on in-home product spending from 2004-2014, aggregate quarterly consumption-equivalent welfare was 16.20 percent higher than a statistical agency benchmark indicates. However, focusing on aggregate statistics masks large geographic differences that statistical agency methods understate, implying greater real consumption growth inequality across regions than previously believed.","PeriodicalId":431230,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Consumption","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122203266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Choice and Discrimination in the Sharing Economy","authors":"C. Lutz, G. Newlands","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3241682","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3241682","url":null,"abstract":"Sharing economy services enable flexible access to under-used assets. However, the selection process of such services can swiftly transition into a mechanism of discrimination. Previous research has found evidence for discrimination and noted a tension between the principles of freedom of choice and anti-discrimination. We complement these investigations through a mixed-methods study that combines focus groups and a quantitative survey. Our results indicate that large part of sharing economy users desire a high degree of choice and flexibility. Sharing platforms are thus in the difficult situation of allowing choice while curbing discrimination.","PeriodicalId":431230,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Consumption","volume":"57 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132814183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Measuring Welfare with Massive Online Choice Experiments: A Brief Introduction","authors":"E. Brynjolfsson, Felix Eggers, A. Collis","doi":"10.1257/PANDP.20181035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/PANDP.20181035","url":null,"abstract":"GDP is a measure of production, and yet it is widely used as a proxy for well-being. It is particularly ill-suited for assessing the contributions of digital goods which are free to consumers and thus excluded from GDP measures. This underscores the need to develop new measures of well-being which can assess not only the contributions of digital goods but also welfare more generally. In Brynjolfsson, Eggers, and Gannamaneni (2017), we propose a new way of measuring consumer welfare using massive online choice experiments. This brief paper motivates the need for such an approach and introduces the method.","PeriodicalId":431230,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Consumption","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114081062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Chain of Cycle of Money with Mixed Savings","authors":"Constantinos Challoumis Κωνσταντίνος Χαλλουμής","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3158422","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3158422","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is about the chain of cycle of money using the mixed savings. This means that we examine the crucial points of tax policy and public policy which are the best for the increase of consumption and of the investments, subject to the case that there exist the maximum and/or the minimum mixed savings and the case that we have an absence of the maximum and/or the minimum mixed savings. Thence, we have the classic case of cycle of money including and the mixed savings. Therefore we have an analysis which based on the utility of the public sector and the utility of the uncontrolled enterprises. Thence, it is plausible to extract conclusions about the of cycle of money, showing the points and the behaviors of any economy when there are and when there are not the maximum and/or the minimum mixed savings. For the purposes of this scrutiny is used the Q.E. method.","PeriodicalId":431230,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Consumption","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134246159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Combinatorial Models of Subjective States","authors":"Igor Kopylov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3152777","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3152777","url":null,"abstract":"I identify subjective state spaces for three structures --- complete and transitive preferences, incomplete dominance relations, and choice functions --- that are given on finite menus. These structures can be modeled together or separately. My results employ some combinatorial techniques and motivations. In particular, up to k subjective states can be derived from monotonic preferences over menus that have at most K elements, or from choices in menus that have at most K1 elements.","PeriodicalId":431230,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Consumption","volume":"2 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"113993481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Advance Selling to Strategic Consumers: Preorder Contingent Production Strategy with Advance Selling Target","authors":"Mike Mingcheng Wei, Fuqiang Zhang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3150478","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3150478","url":null,"abstract":"Motivated by emerging industry practices, this paper studies the effectiveness of a new advance selling strategy in counteracting strategic consumer behavior: the preorder contingent production (PCP) strategy, where the seller's production decision is contingent on an advance selling target. We find that compared to other advance selling strategies, such as the traditional advance selling strategy and the capacity rationing strategy, the PCP strategy is effective in mitigating strategic waiting behavior and thus can significantly improve the seller's profit performance, especially when consumers’ discount factor is at a medium or high level, the production cost is not too high, or the market size has an unbalanced probability distribution. Moreover, when the market size is deterministic, we show that the PCP strategy can completely eliminate strategic waiting behavior and attain the seller's profit performance under myopic consumer behavior. Finally, we demonstrate that the benefits of the PCP strategy are robust under other model considerations.","PeriodicalId":431230,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Consumption","volume":"63 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123764780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Online Learning and Optimization of (Some) Cyclic Pricing Policies in the Presence of Patient Customers","authors":"Huanan Zhang, Stefanus Jasin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3144018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3144018","url":null,"abstract":"Problem definition: We consider the problem of joint learning and optimization of cyclic pricing policies in the presence of patient customers. In our problem, some customers are patient, and they are willing to wait in the system for several periods to make a purchase until the price is lower than their valuation. The seller does not know the joint distribution of customers’ valuation and patience level a priori and can only learn this from the realized total sales in every period. Academic/practical relevance: The revenue management problem with patient customers has been studied in the literature as an optimization problem, and cyclic policy has been shown to be optimal in some cases. We contribute to the literature by studying this problem from the joint learning and optimization perspective. Indeed, to the best of our knowledge, our paper is the first work that studies online learning and optimization for multiperiod pricing with patient customers. Methodology: We introduce new dynamic programming formulations for this problem, and we develop two nontrivial upper confidence bound–based learning algorithms. Results: We analyze both decreasing cyclic policies and so-called threshold-regulated policies, which contain both the decreasing cyclic policies and the nested decreasing cyclic policies. We show that our learning algorithms for these policies converge to the optimal clairvoyant decreasing cyclic policy and threshold-regulated policy at a near-optimal rate. Managerial implications: Our proposed algorithms perform significantly better than benchmark algorithms that either ignore the patient customer characteristic or simply use the standard estimate-then-optimize framework, which does not encourage enough exploration; this highlights the importance of “smart learning” in the context of data-driven decision making. In addition, our numerical results also show that combining our algorithms with smart estimation methods, such as linear interpolation or least square estimation, can significantly improve their empirical performance; this highlights the benefit of combining smart learning with smart estimation, which further increases the practical viability of the algorithms.","PeriodicalId":431230,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Consumption","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114317761","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Generalized Stochastic Preference Choice Model","authors":"Gerardo Berbeglia","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3136227","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3136227","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a new discrete choice model that generalizes the random utility model (RUM). We show that this model, called the emph{Generalized Stochastic Preference} (GSP) model can explain several choice phenomena that can't be represented by a RUM. In particular, the model can easily (and also exactly) replicate some well known examples that are not RUM, as well as controlled choice experiments carried since 1980's that possess strong regularity violations. One such regularity violation is the emph{decoy effect} in which the probability of choosing a product increases when a similar, but inferior product is added to the choice set. An appealing feature of the GSP is that it is non-parametric and therefore it has very high flexibility. The model has also a simple description and interpretation: it builds upon the well known representation of RUM as a stochastic preference, by allowing some additional consumer types to be non-rational.","PeriodicalId":431230,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Consumption","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132904385","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}