{"title":"Covid-19 Mortality in Rich and Poor Countries: A Tale of Two Pandemics?","authors":"P. Schellekens, Diego M. Sourrouille","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-9260","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-9260","url":null,"abstract":"COVID-19 can be described as a heat-seeking missile speeding toward the most vulnerable in society. That metaphor applies not just to the vulnerable in the rich world; the vulnerable in the rest of the world are not more immune. Yet, despite the extensive spread of the virus, the mortality toll remains highly concentrated in high-income countries. Developing countries represent 85 percent of the global population, but only 21 percent of the pandemic's death toll. This unusual inequality creates the impression that the world is subjected to two different pandemics in terms of their impact. This paper documents the observed inequality with a new indicator that expresses severity relative to pre-pandemic patterns. It argues that the excessive skew towards rich countries is inconsistent with demography. Simulations based on reasonable ranges for infectivity and fatality suggest that the developing country share in global fatalities could rise by a factor of three (from 21 to 69 percent). Environmental and host-specific factors will influence these results but are unlikely to overturn them. While data quality has a role in explaining ‘excess inequality’, the more compelling explanation is that the pandemic has yet to run its course through the age distributions of the world.","PeriodicalId":425296,"journal":{"name":"World Bank: Infrastructure (Topic)","volume":"224 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115557522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Transformational Climate Finance: Donors'Willingness to Support Deep and Transformational Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions in Lower-Income Countries","authors":"J. Strand","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-9251","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-9251","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses simple analytical models to study high-income donor countries' willingness to pay to supply mitigation finance to low-income countries; how this depends on modality for finance supply; and how it changes as the global greenhouse gas mitigation agenda moves forward. The paper focuses on two modalities: transformational project-based mitigation finance (transitioning from fossil to non-fossil energy use at scale), and transformational policy-based mitigation finance support (implementing comprehensive carbon taxation). These modalities are compared with conventional finance for which donors have lower willingness to pay. High-income countries' willingness to pay is higher when mitigation is combined with carbon taxation; private-sector finance is also more highly incentivized. Reaching the transformational mitigation finance stage can be challenging, as it may require large provision of mitigation finance with negative net returns to high-income countries. Willingness to pay will be higher when high-income countries collaborate in the provision of mitigation finance. The findings show that more effective collaboration can be sustained when it is enforced by an international financial institution that collects and spends the provided mitigation finance to induce efficient mitigation activity in low-income countries and collaboration among donors is enforced by simple tit-for-tat reaction strategies.","PeriodicalId":425296,"journal":{"name":"World Bank: Infrastructure (Topic)","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117057294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
L. Andrés, S. Deb, George Joseph, Marna Isabel Larenas, Jonathan Grabinsky Zabludovsky
{"title":"A Multiple-Arm, Cluster-Randomized Impact Evaluation of the Clean India (Swachh Bharat) Mission Program in Rural Punjab, India","authors":"L. Andrés, S. Deb, George Joseph, Marna Isabel Larenas, Jonathan Grabinsky Zabludovsky","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-9249","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-9249","url":null,"abstract":"This study reports the findings of a large-scale, multiple-arm, cluster-randomized control study carried out in rural Punjab, India, to assess the impact of a flagship sanitation program of the Government of India. The program, the Clean India Mission for Villages, was implemented between October 2014 and October 2019 and aimed to encourage the construction of toilets, eliminate the practice of open defecation, and improve the awareness and practice of good hygiene across rural India. It utilized a combination of behavioral change campaigns, centered on the community-led total sanitation approach, and financial incentives for eligible households. The study also evaluates the incremental effects of intensive hygiene awareness campaigns in selected schools and follow-up initiatives in selected communities. The study finds that the coverage of ?safely managed? toilets among households without toilets increased by 6.8?10.4 percentage points across various intervention arms, compared with a control group. Open defecation was reduced by 7.3?7.8 percentage points. The program also had significant positive impacts on hygiene awareness among adults and children, although the interventions of school campaigns and intensive follow-up were of limited additional impact.","PeriodicalId":425296,"journal":{"name":"World Bank: Infrastructure (Topic)","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114641034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Locking Crops to Unlock Investment: Experimental Evidence on Warrantage in Burkina Faso","authors":"Clara Delavallade, S. Godlonton","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-9248","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-9248","url":null,"abstract":"Financial market imperfections remain pervasive in developing countries, constraining potentially profitable investment decisions, especially for rural smallholder farmers. Warrantage is an innovative model of rural finance with the potential to overcome credit, storage, and commitment constraints through a localized inventory credit scheme. Exploiting random variations in household access to warrantage and intensity of access across villages, this paper studies the direct impact of this scheme on beneficiaries as well as its spillover effects. Take-up of storage is high (94 percent), while credit take-up is moderate (38 percent). Households with access to warrantage primarily store sorghum and maize and sell their production over an extended period of time, earning higher average prices and resulting in higher sales revenue ($248, or 33 percent, on average). Increased incomes are spent on long-term investments, including human capital expenditures (education), livestock purchases, and investment in agricultural inputs for the subsequent year.","PeriodicalId":425296,"journal":{"name":"World Bank: Infrastructure (Topic)","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122311627","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Too Poor to Grow","authors":"Humberto López, L. Serven","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-5012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-5012","url":null,"abstract":"Recent theoretical literature has suggested a variety of mechanisms through which poverty may deter growth and become self-perpetuating. A few papers have searched for empirical regularities consistent with those mechanisms such as aggregate non-convexities and convergence clubs. However, a seemingly basic implication of the theoretical models, namely that countries suffering from higher levels of poverty should grow less rapidly, has remained untested. This paper attempts to fill that gap and provide a direct empirical assessment of the impact of poverty on growth. The papers strategy involves including poverty indicators among the explanatory variables in an otherwise standard empirical growth equation. Using a large panel dataset, the authors find that poverty has a negative impact on growth that is significant both statistically and economically. This result is robust to a variety of specification changes, including (i) different poverty lines; (ii) different poverty measures; (iii) different sets of control variables; (iv) different estimation methods; (v) adding inequality as a control variable; and (vi) allowing for nonlinear effects of inequality on growth. The paper also finds evidence that the adverse effect of poverty on growth works through investment: high poverty deters investment, which in turn lowers growth. Further, the data suggest that this mechanism only operates at low levels of financial development, consistent with the predictions of theoretical models that underscore financial market imperfections as a key ingredient of poverty traps.","PeriodicalId":425296,"journal":{"name":"World Bank: Infrastructure (Topic)","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128154264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Procurement Efficiency for Infrastructure Development and Financial Needs Reassessed","authors":"Antonio Estache, Atsushi Iimi","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-4662","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4662","url":null,"abstract":"Infrastructure is the engine for economic growth. The international donor community has spent about 70-100 billion U.S. dollars on infrastructure development in developing countries every year. However, it is arguable whether these financial resources are used efficiently, particularly whether the current infrastructure procurement prices are appropriate. Without doubt a key is competition to curb public procurement costs. This paper analyzes procurement data from multi and bilateral official development projects in three infrastructure sectors: roads, electricity, and water and sanitation. The findings show that the competition effect is underutilized. To take full advantage of competition, at least seven bidders are needed in the road and water sectors, while three may be enough in the power sector. The paper also shows that not only competition, but also auction design, especially lot division, is crucial for reducing unit costs of infrastructure. Based on the estimated efficient unit costs, the annual financial needs are estimated at approximately 360 billion U.S. dollars. By promoting competition, the developing world might be able to save at most 8.2 percent of total infrastructure development costs.","PeriodicalId":425296,"journal":{"name":"World Bank: Infrastructure (Topic)","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128458337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Fiscal Policy Instruments for Reducing Congestion and Atmospheric Emissions in the Transport Sector: A Review","authors":"G. Timilsina, H. Dulal","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-4652","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4652","url":null,"abstract":"This paper reviews the literature on the fiscal policy instruments commonly used to reduce transport sector externalities. The findings show that congestion charges would reduce vehicle traffic by 9 to 12 percent and significantly improve environmental quality. The vehicle tax literature suggests that every 1 percent increase in vehicle taxes would reduce vehicle miles by 0.22 to 0.45 percent and CO2 emissions by 0.19 percent. The fuel tax is the most common fiscal policy instrument; however its primary objective is to raise government revenues rather than to reduce emissions and traffic congestion. Although subsidizing public transportation is a common practice, reducing emissions has not been the primary objective of such subsidies. Nevertheless, it is shown that transport sector emissions would be higher in the absence of both public transportation subsidies and fuel taxation. Subsidies are also the main policy tool for the promotion of clean fuels and vehicles. Although some studies are very critical of biofuel subsidies, the literature is mostly supportive of clean vehicle subsidies.","PeriodicalId":425296,"journal":{"name":"World Bank: Infrastructure (Topic)","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114923891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Social Assistance and Poverty Reduction in Moldova, 2001-2004 - An Impact Evaluation","authors":"P. Verme","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-4658","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4658","url":null,"abstract":"This paper assesses the impact of social assistance benefits on household welfare in Moldova. Ignoring standard issues of impact evaluations such as selection bias, behavioral responses, unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity, an incidence analysis suggests that increased spending on social assistance enhances the probability of moving out of poverty and reduces the probability of moving into poverty. However, double difference estimates (based on a mimicked randomized experiment) and parametric estimates (based on panel data) indicate that social benefits have not contributed to improve household welfare or reduce poverty. Double difference estimates point to a negative impact on welfare. Parametric estimates do not yield any consistent significant impact on welfare or poverty. The author concludes that the growth in population coverage and expenditure on cash benefits that characterized social assistance policies in recent years has not resulted in a significant improvement in welfare, all other factors being equal.","PeriodicalId":425296,"journal":{"name":"World Bank: Infrastructure (Topic)","volume":"320 3","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120879632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Minority Status and Labor Market Outcomes: Does India Have Minority Enclaves?","authors":"M. Das","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-4653","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4653","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses data from the 61st Round of the National Sample Survey to understand the employment outcomes of Dalit and Muslim men in India. It uses a conceptual framework developed for the US labor market that states that ethnic minorities skirt discrimination in the primary labor market to build successful self-employed ventures in the form of ethnic enclaves or ethnic labor markets. The paper uses entry into self-employment for educated minority groups as a proxy for minority enclaves. Based on multinomial logistic regression, the analysis finds that the minority enclave hypothesis does not hold for Dalits but it does overwhelmingly for Muslims. The interaction of Dalit and Muslim status with post-primary education in urban areas demonstrates that post-primary education confers almost a disadvantage for minority men: it does not seem to affect their allocation either to salaried work or to non-farm self-employment but does increase their likelihood of opting out of the labor force - and if they cannot afford to drop out, they join the casual labor market. Due to the complexity of these results and the fact that there are no earnings data for self-employment, it is difficult to say whether self-employment is a choice or compulsion and whether builders of minority enclaves fare better than those in the primary market.","PeriodicalId":425296,"journal":{"name":"World Bank: Infrastructure (Topic)","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128386416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Oil Intensities and Oil Prices: Evidence for Latin America","authors":"Veronica Alaimo, Humberto López","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-4640","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4640","url":null,"abstract":"Crude oil prices have dramatically increased over the past years and are now at a historical maximum in nominal terms and very close to it in real terms. It is difficult to argue, at least for net oil importers, that higher oil prices have a positive impact on welfare. In fact, the negative relationship between oil prices and economic activity has been well documented in the literature. Yet, to the extent that higher oil prices lead to lower oil consumption, it would be possible to argue that not all the effects of a price increase are negative. Climate change concerns have been on the rise in recent years and fossil fuel consumption is generally viewed as one of the main causes behind it. Thus this paper explores whether higher oil prices contribute to lowering oil intensities (that is, oil consumption per unit of gross domestic product). The findings show that following an increase in oil prices, OECD countries tend to reduce oil intensity. However, the same result does not hold for Latin America (and more generally for middle-income countries) where oil intensities appear to be unaffected by oil prices. The paper also explores why this is so.","PeriodicalId":425296,"journal":{"name":"World Bank: Infrastructure (Topic)","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122198278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}