Covid-19 Mortality in Rich and Poor Countries: A Tale of Two Pandemics?

P. Schellekens, Diego M. Sourrouille
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引用次数: 62

Abstract

COVID-19 can be described as a heat-seeking missile speeding toward the most vulnerable in society. That metaphor applies not just to the vulnerable in the rich world; the vulnerable in the rest of the world are not more immune. Yet, despite the extensive spread of the virus, the mortality toll remains highly concentrated in high-income countries. Developing countries represent 85 percent of the global population, but only 21 percent of the pandemic's death toll. This unusual inequality creates the impression that the world is subjected to two different pandemics in terms of their impact. This paper documents the observed inequality with a new indicator that expresses severity relative to pre-pandemic patterns. It argues that the excessive skew towards rich countries is inconsistent with demography. Simulations based on reasonable ranges for infectivity and fatality suggest that the developing country share in global fatalities could rise by a factor of three (from 21 to 69 percent). Environmental and host-specific factors will influence these results but are unlikely to overturn them. While data quality has a role in explaining ‘excess inequality’, the more compelling explanation is that the pandemic has yet to run its course through the age distributions of the world.
Covid-19在富国和穷国的死亡率:两大流行病的故事?
新型冠状病毒感染症(COVID-19)是向社会最弱势群体加速发射的热追踪导弹。这个比喻不仅适用于富裕国家的弱势群体;世界其他地区的弱势群体也无法幸免。然而,尽管病毒广泛传播,死亡人数仍然高度集中在高收入国家。发展中国家占全球人口的85%,但死亡人数只占全球的21%。这种不寻常的不平等给人的印象是,世界正遭受两种不同的流行病的影响。本文用一个新指标记录了观察到的不平等现象,该指标表示相对于大流行前模式的严重程度。它认为,过度向富裕国家倾斜与人口统计不符。基于传染性和死亡率合理范围的模拟表明,发展中国家在全球死亡人数中的份额可能会增加三倍(从21%增加到69%)。环境和宿主特定因素会影响这些结果,但不太可能推翻它们。虽然数据质量在解释“过度不平等”方面发挥了作用,但更令人信服的解释是,疫情尚未在世界各地的年龄分布中蔓延。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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