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Multi-step ahead wind speed forecasting approach coupling PSR, NNCT-based multi-model fusion and a new optimization algorithm
IF 9 1区 工程技术
Renewable Energy Pub Date : 2024-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2024.121992
Zhihao Shang , Yanhua Chen , Quan Wen , Xiaolong Ruan
{"title":"Multi-step ahead wind speed forecasting approach coupling PSR, NNCT-based multi-model fusion and a new optimization algorithm","authors":"Zhihao Shang ,&nbsp;Yanhua Chen ,&nbsp;Quan Wen ,&nbsp;Xiaolong Ruan","doi":"10.1016/j.renene.2024.121992","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.renene.2024.121992","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Wind-based electricity generation infrastructure continues to demonstrate substantial expansion rates in recent years. Such growth trajectories demand proportional evolution in wind power administration methodologies. Precise predictions represent an indispensable element for effective wind energy system governance. However, the task of generating accurate wind velocity forecasts remains challenging, since wind speed time-series data exhibits both non-linear patterns and temporal variability. This paper presents a novel hybrid model for wind speed forecasting that integrates PSR (Phase Space Reconstruction), NNCT (No Negative Constraint Theory), and an innovative GPSOGA optimization algorithm. SSA (Singular Spectrum Analysis) is initially applied to decompose the raw wind speed time series into IMFs (Intrinsic Mode Functions), effectively isolating fundamental oscillatory components. Subsequently, PSR reconstructs these IMFs into input and output vectors. The proposed model combines four predictive frameworks: CBP (Cascade Back Propagation) network, RNN (Recurrent Neural Network), GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit), and CCNRNN (Causal Convolutional Network integrated with Recurrent Neural Network). The NNCT strategy is employed to consolidate the outputs of these predictors, while a newly developed optimization algorithm identifies the optimal combination parameters. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model, forecasting results are benchmarked against various models across four distinct datasets. Experimental results indicate that the proposed model achieves superior forecasting accuracy, as evidenced by multiple performance indicators. Further validation through the DM (Diebold-Mariano) test, AIC (Akaike's Information Criterion), and the NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient) confirms the model's enhanced predictive capability over comparison models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":419,"journal":{"name":"Renewable Energy","volume":"238 ","pages":"Article 121992"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142757311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A novel numerical model for evaluating the high-frequency vibration intensity of the headrace tunnel in pumped storage power station 用于评估抽水蓄能电站引水隧洞高频振动强度的新型数值模型
IF 9 1区 工程技术
Renewable Energy Pub Date : 2024-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2024.121931
Xiuwei Yang , Jijian Lian , Haijun Wang , Xiaoqun Wang
{"title":"A novel numerical model for evaluating the high-frequency vibration intensity of the headrace tunnel in pumped storage power station","authors":"Xiuwei Yang ,&nbsp;Jijian Lian ,&nbsp;Haijun Wang ,&nbsp;Xiaoqun Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.renene.2024.121931","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.renene.2024.121931","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>High-frequency pressure pulsation induced by the rotor-stator interaction is a frequently observed phenomenon in pumped storage power stations. The propagation of the pulsation can induce severe problems associated with the vibration and noise in the headrace tunnel. Considering this engineering problem, we aimed to develop a numerical model for predicting the vibration identity of the headrace tunnel and to provide boundary condition for investigating the environmental vibrations. In the proposed numerical model, the interactions in the fluid-pipe-surrounding medium system were considered. And the effect of the surrounding medium was decoupled based on the propagation characteristics of P- and S-waves. The established numerical model avoids the need to solve for the dynamics of the entire surrounding medium. The results derived from the proposed time-domain model were compared with those obtained from the frequency-domain model and 3D FSI simulation, which validated the correctness of the proposed numerical model. Simulation results for an actual pumped storage power station revealed that, considering the influence of surrounding rock, the vibration amplitude of the pipe wall was on the order of <span><math><mrow><msup><mn>10</mn><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>7</mn></mrow></msup><mi>m</mi></mrow></math></span>. This amplitude was reduced by over tenfold, indicating that the surrounding rock significantly dampened the vibration intensity of the headrace tunnel.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":419,"journal":{"name":"Renewable Energy","volume":"238 ","pages":"Article 121931"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142722222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Design, techno-economic feasibility analysis, and sensitivity study of an off-grid hybrid microgrid for developing communities
IF 9 1区 工程技术
Renewable Energy Pub Date : 2024-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2024.121956
Chongxing Ji
{"title":"Design, techno-economic feasibility analysis, and sensitivity study of an off-grid hybrid microgrid for developing communities","authors":"Chongxing Ji","doi":"10.1016/j.renene.2024.121956","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.renene.2024.121956","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Providing a consistent energy supply to remote communities continues to be a substantial challenge. The majority of remote areas, particularly Tiba in Luxor City, Egypt, have extremely limited access to reliable energy sources. This paper is an attempt to design and evaluate a stand-alone microgrid that includes a variety of renewable energy sources, such as wind turbines, photovoltaics, and digestion plants. The data utilized in this study is derived from resource assessments of the Tiba region, which is abundant in renewable energy potential, including favorable wind conditions and accessible bioresources for digestion. To evaluate performance, sensitivity analysis was conducted on critical techno-economic parameters, such as cost, energy production, and resource availability, over a 20-year operations cycle. The results obtained suggest that the hybrid microgrid system is technically feasible and economically viable, with a levelized cost of electricity of 0.1158 $/kWh and a net present cost of 6,894,772 $. The photovoltaics contribute approximately 48.4 % of the energy, while the wind turbines contribute 45.6 %. The digestion plant contributes approximately 6 % of the energy. According to these results, hybrid systems of this nature could be crucial in the provision of sustainable and resilient energy solutions in comparable regions. Policy implications include suggestions for promoting the development of renewable energy-driven microgrids to increase energy security and advance sustainable development in remote regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":419,"journal":{"name":"Renewable Energy","volume":"239 ","pages":"Article 121956"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142759345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Investigation of Displacement between Main Clean Energy Types: Evidence from Leading Developed Countries through Quantile Approaches 调查主要清洁能源类型之间的位移:通过量子方法从主要发达国家获得的证据
IF 9 1区 工程技术
Renewable Energy Pub Date : 2024-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2024.121988
Mustafa Tevfik Kartal , Shahriyar Mukhtarov , Nigar Hajiyeva
{"title":"Investigation of Displacement between Main Clean Energy Types: Evidence from Leading Developed Countries through Quantile Approaches","authors":"Mustafa Tevfik Kartal ,&nbsp;Shahriyar Mukhtarov ,&nbsp;Nigar Hajiyeva","doi":"10.1016/j.renene.2024.121988","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.renene.2024.121988","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The role of energy transition has been developing under increasing negative impacts of environmental problems. Because there are various options, there is a displacement risk among alternatives. Therefore, it is critical to ensure that clean energy use (EU) alternatives do not displace others. Considering this critical point, the study investigates whether there is a displacement between types of renewable and nuclear energy. So, the study examines leading developed countries (Canada, France, United Kingdom, &amp; United States) by considering impact of three main renewable energy use (REU) types (hydro-HEU, solar-SEU, wind-WEU) on nuclear energy use (NEU), using data from 1999/Q2 to 2023/Q4, and applying quantile approaches. The results reveal that (i) HEU (WEU) displaces NEU in Canada and United States (Canada); (ii) SEU mainly displaces NEU in the countries except United Kingdom; (iii) the higher displacing impact of REU types is seen in Canada, while it is partially displacement for France and United States, and almost no displacement for United Kingdom. Overall, the results demonstrate that all REU types have a certain displacement in Canada, whereas there are partial displacement for other REU types across the countries. Hence, a harmonized and comprehensive energy transition planning among clean energy types is critical.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":419,"journal":{"name":"Renewable Energy","volume":"238 ","pages":"Article 121988"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142722221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Advanced wave energy conversion technologies for sustainable and smart sea: A comprehensive review 用于可持续和智能海洋的先进波浪能转换技术:全面回顾
IF 9 1区 工程技术
Renewable Energy Pub Date : 2024-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2024.121980
Hai Li , Xiaodan Shi , Weihua Kong , Lingji Kong , Yongli Hu , Xiaoping Wu , Hongye Pan , Zutao Zhang , Yajia Pan , Jinyue Yan
{"title":"Advanced wave energy conversion technologies for sustainable and smart sea: A comprehensive review","authors":"Hai Li ,&nbsp;Xiaodan Shi ,&nbsp;Weihua Kong ,&nbsp;Lingji Kong ,&nbsp;Yongli Hu ,&nbsp;Xiaoping Wu ,&nbsp;Hongye Pan ,&nbsp;Zutao Zhang ,&nbsp;Yajia Pan ,&nbsp;Jinyue Yan","doi":"10.1016/j.renene.2024.121980","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.renene.2024.121980","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The world's oceans, covering approximately 71 % of the Earth's surface, harbor vast wave energy resources, offering a potential solution to the pressing energy crisis and environmental pollution caused by fossil fuel combustion. In recent years, there has been a global surge in exploration and development of wave energy conversion technologies, aimed at effectively harnessing wave energy to realizing sustainable and intelligent sea solutions. This comprehensive review examines the advancements, challenges and future research directions of current mainstream wave energy conversion technologies. Firstly, the distribution of global wave resources and energy conversion process involved in wave energy extraction are analyzed. Subsequently, various wave energy conversion technologies are meticulously classified based on their power take-off systems, and the strengths and challenges of each category are comprehensively investigated. Especially, a universal standard consisting of 5 key indicators has been established to evaluate and compare the characteristics of various wave energy conversion technologies based on different transduction mechanisms, providing comprehensive and intuitive valid references for developers with different needs. The evaluation reveals that the wave energy converters based on hybrid systems demonstrate significant promise as conversion technologies. Moreover, the review presents a summary and analysis of the latest advancements in the application of artificial intelligence within wave energy conversion technologies. This emerging integration of artificial intelligence showcases promising development and potential for further enhancing wave energy conversion systems. Lastly, the review explores the application and future research directions of wave energy conversion technologies. Notably, the investigation highlights the potential of developing a multi-energy complementary power generation system that can concurrently harness multiple renewable energy sources coexisting at sea. This concept represents a promising avenue for future research and development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":419,"journal":{"name":"Renewable Energy","volume":"238 ","pages":"Article 121980"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142722332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Two-part power referencing for an efficient serially coordinated distributed flexible power point tracking of photovoltaic plants 光伏电站高效串行协调分布式灵活功率点跟踪的两部分功率基准
IF 9 1区 工程技术
Renewable Energy Pub Date : 2024-11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2024.121935
Vaskar Sarkar, Vinay Kumar Kolakaluri
{"title":"Two-part power referencing for an efficient serially coordinated distributed flexible power point tracking of photovoltaic plants","authors":"Vaskar Sarkar,&nbsp;Vinay Kumar Kolakaluri","doi":"10.1016/j.renene.2024.121935","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.renene.2024.121935","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The objective of this paper is to make an efficient implementation of distributed flexible power point tracking (D-FPPT) by creating a suitable power referencing coordination among individual power tracking controllers. Performing power tracking in a distributed manner is helpful in reducing the capacity mismatch loss under partial shading, whereas the flexible power point tracking makes it possible to adjust the photovoltaic power output with a greater freedom. Apart from getting a suitable converter topology, the D-FPPT control also requires a coordinated dynamic adjustment of subarray power reference commands so as to avoid any artificial power scarcity. A serial coordination is, usually, advantageous over the centralized coordination as the former greatly reduces the complexity of the inter-controller communication. Although a simple serially coordinated absolute power referencing scheme has already been proposed in the literature, the particular scheme was found to have the problem of very long power tracking transients even without partial shading. Therefore, in order to make D-FPPT adaptive to the environmental condition, a novel serially coordinated incremental power referencing scheme is proposed in this paper. Extensive physical experiments are carried out to compare the practical performances of proposed and existing power referencing coordination schemes for D-FPPT.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":419,"journal":{"name":"Renewable Energy","volume":"238 ","pages":"Article 121935"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142722334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Energy–carbon–green certificates management strategy for integrated energy system using carbon–green certificates double-direction interaction 利用碳-绿证书双向互动的综合能源系统能源-碳-绿证书管理策略
IF 9 1区 工程技术
Renewable Energy Pub Date : 2024-11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2024.121937
Xu Li, Jianhua Deng, Jichun Liu
{"title":"Energy–carbon–green certificates management strategy for integrated energy system using carbon–green certificates double-direction interaction","authors":"Xu Li,&nbsp;Jianhua Deng,&nbsp;Jichun Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.renene.2024.121937","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.renene.2024.121937","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Deepening the coupling of energy, carbon and green certificate markets can not only decrease greenhouse gases emission and promote green energy absorption, but also contributes to the realization of low-carbon transformation for integrated energy system. This paper proposes a novel double-direction interaction mechanism for carbon and green certificate, and studies an energy–carbon–green certificate integrated pricing method. Firstly, the linkage relation of electricity–gas–carbon is analyzed according to the carbon emission differences for different sources of electricity and natural gas. Secondly, a double-direction interaction mechanism between carbon and green certificate is established based on the carbon emission reduction property of green certificate and the promoting green electricity property of carbon emission quota. Combining the above two points, a more complete and closer linkage relations among electricity, gas, carbon and green certificate are constructed. Thirdly, carbon tax and multi-interaction intensity indexes are introduced to develop an integrated pricing method for energy–carbon–green certificate. Finally, five optimal interaction scheduling models are solved. The simulation results verify the feasibility of the proposed interaction mechanism and integrated price on accelerating low-carbon operation, lowering operating cost and reducing the dependence on external networks. And the total cost and carbon emission decrease by 12.65% and 3.04%, and renewable energy absorption rate increases by 4.06%.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":419,"journal":{"name":"Renewable Energy","volume":"238 ","pages":"Article 121937"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142722336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Application potential of rooftop photovoltaics (PV) in elevated metro station for a low-carbon future: Characteristic analysis and strategies for supply-demand mismatch 高架地铁站屋顶光伏(PV)在低碳未来中的应用潜力:特性分析与供需错配策略
IF 9 1区 工程技术
Renewable Energy Pub Date : 2024-11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2024.121983
Haobo Yang , Bowen Guan , Ji Zhang , Tao Zhang , Xiaohua Liu , Xinke Wang
{"title":"Application potential of rooftop photovoltaics (PV) in elevated metro station for a low-carbon future: Characteristic analysis and strategies for supply-demand mismatch","authors":"Haobo Yang ,&nbsp;Bowen Guan ,&nbsp;Ji Zhang ,&nbsp;Tao Zhang ,&nbsp;Xiaohua Liu ,&nbsp;Xinke Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.renene.2024.121983","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.renene.2024.121983","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Integrating photovoltaic (PV) system offers a promising solution to mitigate energy demand within the metro system, promoting cleaner electricity and contributing to a low-carbon future. However, due to discrepancies between PV power generation and energy demand profiles, on-site PV utilization remains suboptimal. Currently, there is a research gap concerning mismatch deconstruction based on formative principles. Addressing this gap, the study proposes a novel mismatch deconstruction approach that deconstructs mismatches along three dimensions: quantity, stagger, and shape. The findings reveal that, in the baseline scenario, quantity mismatch dominates, accounting for 62.6 %, and stagger mismatch and shape mismatch contribute 34.3 % and 3.1 %, respectively. Furthermore, the mapping relationship between mismatch deconstruction and mitigation strategies is explored and solutions for scenarios where different deconstruction results are the main contradictions is provided. Results shows that quantity mismatch represents PV capacity requirements, while stagger mismatch and shape mismatch signify energy storage capacity needs. When the quantity mismatch ratio is below 0.5, the investment preference is completely biased towards energy storage. Leveraging the deconstruction, an investment optimization method is introduced to maximize renewable energy supply and maximize economic benefits. It is hoped that the study provides valuable insights into a sustainable and low-carbon future for transport industry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":419,"journal":{"name":"Renewable Energy","volume":"238 ","pages":"Article 121983"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142722337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Coordinated operation of source–station–road–network system considering traffic flow uncertainty
IF 9 1区 工程技术
Renewable Energy Pub Date : 2024-11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2024.121915
Min Hou , Xinrui Liu , Rui Wang , Yating Wang , Zhengmao Li , Qiuye Sun
{"title":"Coordinated operation of source–station–road–network system considering traffic flow uncertainty","authors":"Min Hou ,&nbsp;Xinrui Liu ,&nbsp;Rui Wang ,&nbsp;Yating Wang ,&nbsp;Zhengmao Li ,&nbsp;Qiuye Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.renene.2024.121915","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.renene.2024.121915","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Promoting large-scale transportation electrification and developing new solar energy harvesting and converting technologies are effective ways to achieve ’dual carbon goals’. In this paper, a new road energy harvesting technology, solar road (SR) power generation technology, is introduced. A SR power generation model considering the variation of solar radiation intensity, traffic flow and dynamic shadows of vehicles is constructed. Secondly, considering the uncertainty of traffic network (TN) caused by users’ stochastic routing behavior, a model of TN under stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) is constructed. Then the influence of traffic flow on the electric load of charging and battery swapping stations (CBSSs) is analyzed, and the local consumption strategy of SR is established. Meanwhile, information gap decision theory (IGDT) is introduced to reduce the impact of uncertainty on the system. Finally, the coupling system of IEEE-33 node of distribution network (DN) and Nguyen–Dupuis of TN is used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model and optimal management method, which improves the utilization rate of solar energy, promotes carbon emission reduction, reduces the congestion degree of DN, and ensures the safe and stable operation of the system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":419,"journal":{"name":"Renewable Energy","volume":"238 ","pages":"Article 121915"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142746099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Interplay of Chinese rare earth elements supply and European clean energy transition: A geopolitical context analysis
IF 9 1区 工程技术
Renewable Energy Pub Date : 2024-11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2024.121986
Oleg Mariev , Dmitri Blueschke
{"title":"Interplay of Chinese rare earth elements supply and European clean energy transition: A geopolitical context analysis","authors":"Oleg Mariev ,&nbsp;Dmitri Blueschke","doi":"10.1016/j.renene.2024.121986","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.renene.2024.121986","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The European clean energy sector sources approximately 98 % of its rare earth materials from China. We examine Chinese rare earth supply's effect on European renewable energy, particularly solar and wind sectors from 1990 to 2020. Using the gravity model, we find a positive correlation between China's rare earth supply and European solar energy during bullish markets. A similar response is seen in wind energy during bearish markets, considering global and China-specific geopolitical risks. We also observe a negative correlation between China's economic growth and mineral supply to Europe, with European income growth having no significant impact. Additionally, multiplicative economic growth negatively impacts Chinese mineral supply. The study also reveals a positive link between oil prices, rare earth export prices, geopolitical risks, and China's mineral exports. Distance negatively affects supply dynamics in the wind model but not in the solar model. However, the originality of this study lies in its examination of China's role as a rare earth supplier for Europe's clean energy transition, integrated into a gravity model. Significantly, this research provides potential trade insights and formulates an economic policy implication framework to guarantee a steady supply of China's rare earths for Europe's green deal objectives, while addressing the associated geopolitical risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":419,"journal":{"name":"Renewable Energy","volume":"238 ","pages":"Article 121986"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142746102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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