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The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro-Complementarities 发展政策难以捉摸的和平红利:从战争陷阱到宏观互补性
CEPR: Macroeconomics & Growth (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.1146/ANNUREV-ECONOMICS-073120-102652
D. Rohner, Mathias Thoenig
{"title":"The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro-Complementarities","authors":"D. Rohner, Mathias Thoenig","doi":"10.1146/ANNUREV-ECONOMICS-073120-102652","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/ANNUREV-ECONOMICS-073120-102652","url":null,"abstract":"This article reviews the literature on civil conflict and development with a focus on the socioeconomic consequences of violence and on promising policies for fostering peace. We make four main points. First, one of the reasons conflict is still often overlooked as key factor for development is that conflict costs are typically underestimated, in particular the shadow costs of deterrence. Second, there are several types of war traps that hold countries back, both economically and politically. Third, to break these traps, policies must be calibrated to address jointly both poverty and social tensions, as there is a strong macro complementarity between peace and development objectives. We document how single-minded policies that ignore this dual challenge can spectacularly fail, and we discuss in depth a series of particularly promising policies. Fourth, we highlight the increasing potential of novel data collection methodologies and the need for policy evaluation tools in violent contexts.","PeriodicalId":403294,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: Macroeconomics & Growth (Topic)","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132883807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 20
The Ancient Origins of the Wealth of Nations 《国家财富的古代起源
CEPR: Macroeconomics & Growth (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3708522
Quamrul H. Ashraf, Oded Galor, Marc Klemp
{"title":"The Ancient Origins of the Wealth of Nations","authors":"Quamrul H. Ashraf, Oded Galor, Marc Klemp","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3708522","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3708522","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This essay explores the deepest roots of economic development. It underscores the significance of evolutionary processes in shaping fundamental individual and cultural traits, such as time preference, risk and loss aversion, and predisposition towards child quality, that have contributed to technological progress, human-capital formation, and economic development. Moreover, it highlights the persistent mark of the exodus of Homo sapiens from Africa tens of thousands of years ago on the degree of interpersonal population diversity across the globe and examines the impact of this variation in diversity for comparative economic, cultural, and institutional development across countries, regions, and ethnic groups.","PeriodicalId":403294,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: Macroeconomics & Growth (Topic)","volume":"129 9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116960635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 13
Evaluating the Effectiveness of Policies Against a Pandemic 评估应对大流行政策的有效性
CEPR: Macroeconomics & Growth (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3714697
C. Aleman, Christopher B. Busch, A. Ludwig, Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis
{"title":"Evaluating the Effectiveness of Policies Against a Pandemic","authors":"C. Aleman, Christopher B. Busch, A. Ludwig, Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3714697","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3714697","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a novel empirical approach to identify the effectiveness of policies against a pandemic. The essence of our approach is the insight that epidemic dynamics are best tracked over stages, rather than over time. We use a normalization procedure, built around making the pre-policy paths of the epidemic identical across regions, to uncover regional variation in the stage of the epidemic at the time of policy implementation. This variation delivers clean identification of the policy effect based on the epidemic path of a leading region that serves as a counterfactual for other regions. We apply our method to evaluate the effectiveness of the nationwide stay-home policy enacted in Spain against the COVID-19 pandemic. We nd that the policy saved 15:9% of lives. Its effectiveness evolves with the epidemic and is larger when implemented at earlier stages.","PeriodicalId":403294,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: Macroeconomics & Growth (Topic)","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115156677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Growing Like China: Firm Performance and Global Production Line Position 像中国一样成长:企业绩效和全球生产线位置
CEPR: Macroeconomics & Growth (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3679997
D. Chor, Kalina B. Manova, Zhihong Yu
{"title":"Growing Like China: Firm Performance and Global Production Line Position","authors":"D. Chor, Kalina B. Manova, Zhihong Yu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3679997","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3679997","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Global value chains have fundamentally transformed international trade and development in recent decades. We use matched firm-level customs and manufacturing survey data, together with Input-Output tables for China, to examine how Chinese firms position themselves in global production lines and how this evolves with productivity and performance over the firm lifecycle. We document a sharp rise in the upstreamness of imports, stable positioning of exports, and rapid expansion in production stages conducted in China over the 1992–2014 period, both in the aggregate and within firms over time. Firms span more stages as they grow more productive, bigger and more experienced. This is accompanied by a rise in input purchases, value added in production, fixed costs incurred, and profits. We rationalize these patterns with a stylized model of the firm lifecycle with complementarity between the scale of production and the scope of stages performed.","PeriodicalId":403294,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: Macroeconomics & Growth (Topic)","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126534614","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 46
Permanent Income Shocks, Target Wealth, and the Wealth Gap 永久性收入冲击、目标财富和贫富差距
CEPR: Macroeconomics & Growth (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.3386/w27709
T. Jappelli, Luigi Pistaferri
{"title":"Permanent Income Shocks, Target Wealth, and the Wealth Gap","authors":"T. Jappelli, Luigi Pistaferri","doi":"10.3386/w27709","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27709","url":null,"abstract":"We test the key implication of the buffer stock model, namely that any revision in permanent income leads to a proportionate revision in target wealth. We use panel data on the amount of wealth held for precautionary purposes available in the 2002-2016 SHIW. Using an instrumental variable approach to overcome measurement error issues and direct estimates of the permanent component of income, we find that households indeed revise approximately one-for-one their target wealth in response to permanent income shocks. We explore heterogeneity of the response across the cash-on-hand distribution, for positive and negative shocks, and for shocks of different size. We also find that the change in the ratio of cash-on-hand to permanent income is negatively correlated with the “wealth gap”, particularly for individuals whose wealth is substantially above target.","PeriodicalId":403294,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: Macroeconomics & Growth (Topic)","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132931620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
This Time it's Different: The Role of Women's Employment in a Pandemic Recession 这一次不一样:妇女就业在大范围经济衰退中的作用
CEPR: Macroeconomics & Growth (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.3386/w27660
T. Alon, Matthias Doepke, Jane Olmstead-Rumsey, M. Tertilt
{"title":"This Time it's Different: The Role of Women's Employment in a Pandemic Recession","authors":"T. Alon, Matthias Doepke, Jane Olmstead-Rumsey, M. Tertilt","doi":"10.3386/w27660","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27660","url":null,"abstract":"In recent US recessions, employment losses have been much larger for men than for women. Yet, in the current recession caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the opposite is true: unemployment is higher among women. In this paper, we analyze the causes and consequences of this phenomenon. We argue that women have experienced sharp employment losses both because their employment is concentrated in heavily affected sectors such as restaurants, and due to increased childcare needs caused by school and daycare closures, preventing many women from working. We analyze the repercussions of this trend using a quantitative macroeconomic model featuring heterogeneity in gender, marital status, childcare needs, and human capital. Our quantitative analysis suggests that a pandemic recession will i) feature a strong transmission from employment to aggregate demand due to diminished within-household insurance; ii) result in a widening of the gender wage gap throughout the recovery; and iii) contribute to a weakening of the gender norms that currently produce a lopsided distribution of the division of labor in home work and childcare.","PeriodicalId":403294,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: Macroeconomics & Growth (Topic)","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127939068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 208
Transatlantic Technologies: the Role of ICT in the Evolution of U.S. And European Productivity Growth 跨大西洋技术:信息通信技术在美国和欧洲生产力增长演变中的作用
CEPR: Macroeconomics & Growth (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.3386/w27425
R. Gordon, H. Sayed
{"title":"Transatlantic Technologies: the Role of ICT in the Evolution of U.S. And European Productivity Growth","authors":"R. Gordon, H. Sayed","doi":"10.3386/w27425","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27425","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the role of the ICT revolution in driving productivity growth behavior for the United States and an aggregate of ten Western European nations (the EU-10) from 1977 to 2015. We find that the standard growth accounting approach is deficient when it separates sources of growth between ICT capital deepening and TFP growth, because much of the effect of the ICT revolution was channeled through spillovers to TFP growth rather than being limited to the capital deepening pathway. Using industry-level data from EU KLEMS, we find that most of the 1995-2005 U.S. productivity growth revival was driven by ICT-intensive industries producing market services and computer hardware. In contrast the EU-10 experienced a 1995-2005 growth slowdown due to a paucity of ICT investment, a failure to capture the efficiency benefits of ICT, and performance shortfalls in specific industries including ICT production, finance-insurance, retail-wholesale, and agriculture. After 2005 both the U.S. and the EU-10 suffered a growth slowdown, indicating that the benefits of the ICT revolution were temporary rather than providing a new permanent era of faster productivity growth. This joint transatlantic post-2005 slowdown is consistent with the broader view that ongoing innovation has been less potent in boosting productivity growth compared to earlier decades of the postwar era.","PeriodicalId":403294,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: Macroeconomics & Growth (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129280664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11
Why Didn't the College Premium Rise Everywhere? Employment Protection and On-the-Job Investment in Skills 为什么大学溢价没有到处上涨?就业保护和在职技能投资
CEPR: Macroeconomics & Growth (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.3386/w27331
Matthias Doepke, Ruben Gaetani
{"title":"Why Didn't the College Premium Rise Everywhere? Employment Protection and On-the-Job Investment in Skills","authors":"Matthias Doepke, Ruben Gaetani","doi":"10.3386/w27331","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27331","url":null,"abstract":"Why has the college wage premium risen rapidly in the United States since the 1980s, but not in European economies such as Germany? We argue that differences in employment protection can account for much of the gap. We develop a model in which firms and workers make relationship-specific investments in skill accumulation. The incentive to invest is stronger when employment protection creates an expectation of long-lasting matches. We argue that changes in the economic environment have reduced relationship-specific investment for less-educated workers in the United States, but not for better-protected workers in Germany.","PeriodicalId":403294,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: Macroeconomics & Growth (Topic)","volume":"281 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124958099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Commit to a Credible Path of Rising CO2 Prices 致力于二氧化碳价格上涨的可靠途径
CEPR: Macroeconomics & Growth (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3613564
Stan Olijslagers, Rick van der Ploeg, Sweder J. G. van Wijnbergen
{"title":"Commit to a Credible Path of Rising CO2 Prices","authors":"Stan Olijslagers, Rick van der Ploeg, Sweder J. G. van Wijnbergen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3613564","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3613564","url":null,"abstract":"CO2 pricing is essential for an efficient transition to the green economy. Despite Daniel, Litterman and Wagner (2019)’ claim that CO2 prices should decline, CO2 prices should rise over time. First, damages from global warming are proportional to economic activity and this makes CO2 prices grow at the same rate as the economy. Second, even if uncertainty about the damage ratio is gradually resolved over time, this only slows down the price rise. Third, if CCS is allowed for, the optimal CO2 price will rise before it declines but this decline does not occur until more than two centuries ahead. Fourth, damages are likely to be a very convex function of temperature which with rising temperature implies that CO2 prices must grow faster than the economy. Fifth, internalizing the social benefits of learning by doing or a shift towards technical progress in renewable energy production requires a subsidy for renewable energy, not a temporary spike in CO2 prices. Having high CO2 prices upfront is an artefact of failing to separate out renewable energy subsidies from the carbon price. Finally, efficient intertemporal allocation of policy efforts implies that a temperature cap or cap on cumulative emissions requires that CO2 prices must rise at a rate equal to the risk-adjusted interest rate, typically higher than the economic growth rate. Summing up, CO2 prices must rise at a rate at least equal to the economic growth rate and at most to the risk-adjusted interest rate. They should not decline.","PeriodicalId":403294,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: Macroeconomics & Growth (Topic)","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115593984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Automation, Globalization and Vanishing Jobs: A Labor Market Sorting View 自动化，全球化和消失的工作:劳动力市场分类的观点
CEPR: Macroeconomics & Growth (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3608516
Ester Faia, Sébastien Laffitte, M. Mayer, G. Ottaviano
{"title":"Automation, Globalization and Vanishing Jobs: A Labor Market Sorting View","authors":"Ester Faia, Sébastien Laffitte, M. Mayer, G. Ottaviano","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3608516","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3608516","url":null,"abstract":"We show, theoretically and empirically, that the effects of technological change associated with automation and offshoring on the labor market can substantially deviate from standard neoclassical conclusions when search frictions hinder efficient assortative matching between firms with heterogeneous tasks and workers with heterogeneous skills. Our key hypothesis is that better matches enjoy a comparative advantage in exploiting automation and a comparative disadvantage in exploiting offshoring. It implies that automation (offshoring) may reduce (raise) employment by lengthening (shortening) unemployment duration due to higher (lower) match selectivity. We find empirical support for this implication in a dataset covering 92 occupations and 16 sectors in 13 European countries from 1995 to 2010.","PeriodicalId":403294,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: Macroeconomics & Growth (Topic)","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114741462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
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