Journal on Baltic Security最新文献

{"title":"The Consequences of Perceived (In)security and Possible Coping Strategies of Lithuanian People in the Context of External Military Threats","authors":"I. Gečienė-Janulionė","doi":"10.2478/jobs-2018-0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jobs-2018-0003","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In recent years, Lithuania’s changing geopolitical environment because of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine has increased the potential military threat that inevitably affects the subjective perception of security of the population. Based on the data from representative surveys and interviews conducted in 2014 and 2016, the article examines Lithuanians’ subjective perception of external military threats in the new geopolitical context, the impact of this perception on their coping strategies and the factors that have an impact on the selection of these strategies. The article is based on Buzan’s (1983, 1991, 2007) theoretical insights into subjective security and the sociological subjective security analysis approach of Inglehart and Norris (2012), applying it to the practically unexplored subjective response (strategies chosen by individuals) to the research into the field of military threat field. These two theoretical approaches allow the analysis of how a country’s population comprehends threats to its security amid a changing geopolitical context and the examination of the impact of different groups and approaches in society when selecting coping strategies. The article argues that the perception of security changes over time, as following the events that created the feeling of insecurity in the first place, the feeling of security again starts to rise gradually. In addition, knowledge of not only the current geopolitical context but also the historical experience is important, as in societies that have undergone radical political transformations, attitudes towards the existing democratic and former Soviet regimes play a rather major part in determining subjective security. The subjective security of different social groups and their selected coping strategies also differ, as it is the most vulnerable social groups that feel least safe. The least vulnerable social groups are most inclined to defend their country, whereas more vulnerable groups choose to be passive or to look after themselves and their families first and foremost.","PeriodicalId":395627,"journal":{"name":"Journal on Baltic Security","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125173913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"China and the Baltic States: strategic challenges and security dilemmas for Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia","authors":"David Scott","doi":"10.2478/jobs-2018-0001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jobs-2018-0001","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The article considers traditional and non-traditional security concerns faced by the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in the face of China’s increasing presence. Consequently the article first considers the geo-economic challenges posed to these Baltic States through the China and Central and East Europe Countries (CCEEC) grouping, and China’s Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) initiative. This economic leverage translates to political leverage able to be exerted on the Baltic states by China, with regard to human rights and the issue of the Dalai Lama. Moreover, such mechanisms and Chinese financing serves to politically divide the Baltic states, and also divides EU solidarity vis-à-vis China. Finally there are the conventional security issues posed to the Baltic states in the Russia-China naval exercises carried out in Baltic waters in 2017; with China’s role in effect providing implicit support and legitimisation of explicit Russian threats in the Baltic. It concludes by suggesting alternative infrastructure routings to at least reduce the threat of Russian interference.","PeriodicalId":395627,"journal":{"name":"Journal on Baltic Security","volume":"194 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124150166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does Latvia Matter in Regional Geopolitics?","authors":"Jeremy W. Lamoreaux, Nicholas Dyerly","doi":"10.2478/jobs-2018-0002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jobs-2018-0002","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract As early as 1994, scholars, analysts and policymakers began to wonder the extent to which the Baltic States mattered in the relationship between Russia and the West. The general consensus for the following 20 years was that the Baltic States matter considerably, especially following their inclusion in both the EU and NATO in 2004. However, in the past few years two trends have emerged which begin to call this accepted knowledge into question. First, the relationship between Russia and the West has turned more hostile following nearly 20 years of detente. The West insists (especially NATO) insists that it is within its right to protect states that were formerly part of the Soviet Union/Russia’s “near abroad”. Russia, on the other hand, insists that NATO incursion into the “shared neighborhood” is a violation of trust and overstepping normal geopolitical bounds. Second, the Baltic States who once presented something of a united front for the West against Russia, no longer appear to have a common approach to foreign policy. While Estonia leans toward Scandinavia, and Lithuania leans toward Poland and Ukraine, Latvia is a bit of an odd man out with nowhere to turn. Furthermore, even other states in the Shared Neighborhood no longer seem to see Latvia as a valuable ally within the West. Considering this state of affairs, this paper considers whether Latvia matters anymore in regional geopolitics, or whether they are losing relevance.","PeriodicalId":395627,"journal":{"name":"Journal on Baltic Security","volume":"89 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130741093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"’Belarus – a significant chess piece on the chessboard of regional security","authors":"Piotr Piss","doi":"10.2478/jobs-2018-0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jobs-2018-0004","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Belarus is often considered as ‘the last authoritarian state in Europe’ or the ‘last Soviet Republic’. Belarusian policies are not a popular research topic. Over the past years, the country has made headlines mostly as a regime violating human rights. Since the Russian aggression on Ukraine, Belarus has been getting renewed attention. Minsk was the scene of a series of talks that aim at stopping the ongoing war in Ukraine. Western media, scholars and society got a reminder that Eastern Europe was not a conflict-free zone. This article puts military security policy of Belarus into perspective by showing that Belarus ‘per se’ is not a threat for neighboring countries; Belarus dependency towards Russia is huge; thus, Minsk has a small capability to run its own independent security policy; military potential of Belarus is significant in the region, but gap in equipment and training between NATO and Belarus is really more; it is in the interest of Western countries to keep the Lukashenko’s regime in Belarus.","PeriodicalId":395627,"journal":{"name":"Journal on Baltic Security","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133035368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Time for honest defence. Review of Thomas-Durell Young. 2017. Anatomy of post-communist European defence institutions: the mirage of military modernity","authors":"Dalius Polekauskas","doi":"10.2478/jobs-2018-0006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jobs-2018-0006","url":null,"abstract":"Macmillan Online Dictionary defines reform as ‘a change that is intended to correct a situation that is wrong or unfair, or make a system work more effectively’. One of the historical case studies to apprehend military reforms could be the establishment of the first Roman professional army by Emperor Augustus. The reform replaced the concept of temporary armies by introducing standing forces consisting of 28 legions (5,500 men in each). Cavalry was similarly reinforced by a number of auxiliaries. Standing forces therefore amounted to a total strength of approximately 300,000 men. The success of reform was built on enticing volunteers and keeping soldiers loyal by increasing wages, introducing veterans’ pensions and dropping the importance of nobility privileges in promotion. One of the takeaways from this case is the clarity of the reform’s objectives. It is therefore a paradox that the specifics of current European defence sector reforms are even excessively complicated in the formulation of objectives and evaluation. The enduring pressure from the US to European allies for increasing military spending and Russian revisionism to reassert influence in the post-Soviet space are two critical aspects to reassess and refresh European military reforms. Moreover, the last changes in the security environment convinced even European states that are most avert to military action that the time to sheathe swords is over. The importance of credible military deterrence is one among the top priorities in the agendas of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and its member states. It is probably the first time since the end of the Cold War that existing qualitative capability gaps are not only recognised by most of European allies but also addressed in military reform programmes. Military reforms in post-Soviet countries can be compared with the experience of riding a roller coaster in an amusement park. They turned into western orbit and took up active roles in international operations within NATO; 4 of them are currently hosting troops of NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence. It would be fair to start a review of Thomas-Durell Young’s book by saying that from a military practitioner’s point of view, many of the negative assessments seemed outrageous. During my reading, I was sunk in contemplation and the argumentation sometimes felt out of touch. It was difficult to accept some baseless statements. In my understanding, it means that the book reached the objective to disassociate from traditional declarative assessment of reforms and rethink achievements more critically.","PeriodicalId":395627,"journal":{"name":"Journal on Baltic Security","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125302466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Missing Chapter. Seapower and the Baltic Sea. Review of Admiral James Stravidis, USN (Ret.) (2017) Sea Power: The History and Geopolitics of the World’s Oceans. New York: Penguin Press","authors":"William Combes","doi":"10.2478/JOBS-2018-0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/JOBS-2018-0005","url":null,"abstract":"Sea Power: The History and Geopolitics of the World’s Oceans is a book that everyone should read. The author, retired U.S. Navy Admiral James Stavridis, is well known beyond naval and maritime circles. Following a long and distinguished naval career, the pinnacle of which included serving as the Supreme Allied Commander of NATO1, he was selected as the Dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, a position he still holds today. It is apparent that Stavridis is passionate about the three interrelated disciplines that intersect throughout the work, which are captured in the title, and that have defined his extraordinary expertise as a naval historian, geopolitical strategist and, perhaps most importantly, sailor. The historical background discussed in each chapter leaves you yearning to learn more. The geopolitical implications and recommendations for the future of American seapower2 are well reasoned and insightful. By making the narrative personal in relaying his extensive professional experiences and deep involvement in the subject matter as a sailor and a senior operational leader and military diplomat, everything is tied together. Stavridis deftly deals with the oceans and four seas– the Pacific, Atlantic, Indian and Arctic and the Mediterranean, South China, Caribbean and “Outlaw”, respectively – each with their own chapter. From the outset, the interconnected nature of the one body of salt water that connects the economies of all nations is stressed – “the sea is one” (p. 2). He starts with the Pacific, the “mother of all oceans”. In this chapter, he highlights the historical and economic reasons why the U.S. Navy has, since the Second World War, had a majority of its forces in the Pacific. This is particularly true if you include the U.S. Navy’s presence in the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and the Horn of Africa as connected to the broader Indo-Asia-Pacific region, a term that is now included in U.S. strategic documents.3 From the Eurocentric perspective, the second chapter on the Atlantic and the fourth chapter on the Mediterranean Sea highlight why a “pivot” or “rebalance” to the Pacific is not likely to change the U.S. Navy’s continued involvement in the first ocean and seas it sailed on its homeland’s front lawn. In addition","PeriodicalId":395627,"journal":{"name":"Journal on Baltic Security","volume":"200 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120863288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estonia And UNIFIL: The Benefits to a Small State of UN Peacekeeping","authors":"T. Lawrence","doi":"10.1515/jobs-2017-0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jobs-2017-0007","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article considers Estonia’s contribution, since May 2015, of an infantry company to the Finnish contingent of the Finnish/Irish battalion of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon. It is intended to provide a case study of a small European state’s involvement in UN peacekeeping in the ‘post- Afghanistan’ security environment. Drawing on interviews with Estonian officials and peacekeepers, it sets out the rationale for Estonia’s contribution and explores the degree to which participation has met the expectations of the Estonian defence leadership. It concludes that participation in UNIFIL has largely been a valuable policy, both politically and for the defence forces.","PeriodicalId":395627,"journal":{"name":"Journal on Baltic Security","volume":"140 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131457172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Lithuania’s Balancing Act","authors":"Deividas Šlekys","doi":"10.1515/JOBS-2017-0008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/JOBS-2017-0008","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Since regaining independence in 1990 and creating its regular armed forces, Lithuania has had to do a balancing act. It has had to balance between different approaches of state defence, military structure, collective and national defence. Due to events in Ukraine Lithuania had to reconfigure this balance. The Russian threat forced to emphasize strategy of territorial defence, which altogether required tying up forces and enlarging its numbers by bringing back conscription, substantially increased defence budget, followed by higher tempo and scale in procurement and training. However, Lithuania has managed to maintain its activity and participation in international military operations and political initiatives. Its recent contributions have led to an assumption that its participation in various military missions in the future will not diminish, quite the opposite. Increasing the framework of cooperation in terms of defence and security initiatives will involve Lithuania more deeply and will require further contributions.","PeriodicalId":395627,"journal":{"name":"Journal on Baltic Security","volume":"97 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127388736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Security Strategies of Small States in a Changing World","authors":"Ž. Vaicekauskaitė","doi":"10.1515/jobs-2017-0006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jobs-2017-0006","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract How are small states adjusting to a changing security environment and managing tensions with greater powers in their neighbourhood? Much of the recent literature on small states spends a great deal of time examining challenges to small states and their security policies. Scholars offer several strategies that small states can employ to adjust to a changing security landscape. Small states have two broad options – to focus on their own defence posture, trying to keep their autonomy and stay neutral, or use different cooperative schemes – bandwagon with larger powers, form alliances against dominant powers, or seek shelter and develop hedging strategies. This article reviews survival strategies employed by small states and provides a basis to better understand the behaviour of small states in today’s contested security environment.","PeriodicalId":395627,"journal":{"name":"Journal on Baltic Security","volume":"92 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131062234","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Deterrence Dilemma in Latvia and Estonia: Finding the Balance between External Military Solidarity and Territorial Defence","authors":"Māris Andžāns, Viljar Veebel","doi":"10.1515/jobs-2017-0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jobs-2017-0005","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract While potential threats from Russia and NATO collective defence commitments are similar for Latvia and Estonia, both countries have adopted different approaches in the balancing exercise between territorial defence and military solidarity. Notwithstanding their differences, both are by their nature fully non-aggressive – without room for pre-emptive initiatives, extra territoriality or asymmetrical tools. Given that in a case of a hypothetical large-scale conventional attack both countries would almost entirely have to rest on the allies, external military solidarity is essential. Until the Ukraine crisis, both offered more military solidarity towards their NATO allies than the latter offered to them. As the result of the Ukrainian crisis, allies became more military-solidary with the Baltic nations, especially having established the Enhanced Forward Presence, while Estonian and especially Latvian contributions to international missions and operations dropped. Therefore, it is suggested that both countries increase their efforts to the allied international endeavours.","PeriodicalId":395627,"journal":{"name":"Journal on Baltic Security","volume":"197 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115501222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}