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A Hayekian Explanation of Hayek's 'Epistemic Turn' 哈耶克“认识论转向”的哈耶克式解释
ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2014-02-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2405040
Scott Scheall
{"title":"A Hayekian Explanation of Hayek's 'Epistemic Turn'","authors":"Scott Scheall","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2405040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2405040","url":null,"abstract":"The present essay investigates F.A. Hayek’s epistemology and his methodology of sciences of complex phenomena for implications relevant to an explanation of Hayek’s own so-called “epistemic turn.” The thesis defended here is that Hayek’s dissatisfaction with his technical economics – in particular, his business cycle project – prompted, in keeping with his evolutionary theory of belief revision, the development of an approach less susceptible to the same disappointment.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127852892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Do Weak Institutions Prolong Crises? On the Identification, Characteristics, and Duration of Declines During Economic Slumps 薄弱的制度会延长危机吗?论经济衰退期间衰退的识别、特征和持续时间
ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2014-01-31 DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9127
R. Bluhm, Denis de Crombrugghe, A. Szirmai
{"title":"Do Weak Institutions Prolong Crises? On the Identification, Characteristics, and Duration of Declines During Economic Slumps","authors":"R. Bluhm, Denis de Crombrugghe, A. Szirmai","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-9127","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-9127","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper studies periods of prolonged contractions in output per capita in a sample of 145 countries from 1950 to 2014. Economic slumps are defined as abrupt interruptions of a period of growth by several regime switches. Slumps start with a sharp contraction along with a trend break, which is followed by another switch when growth stabilizes again. The paper then analyzes the correlates of these slumps, focusing on the length and depth of the contraction, from the beginning of the slump to its trough. The results establish three new stylized facts: (i) weak political institutions predate crises whereas political reforms tend to follow them, (ii) the length and depth of economic declines are robustly correlated with executive constraints and ethnic heterogeneity, and (iii) there is a robust interaction between these two variables, suggesting that institutions constraining leaders are important for stabilizing growth. This is particularly relevant for Sub-Saharan Africa, where politics are often ethnic and decision makers are comparatively unconstrained.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125575476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 15
Heterogeneous Information and Labor Market Fluctuations 异质性信息与劳动力市场波动
ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2014-01-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2687561
Venky Venkateswaran
{"title":"Heterogeneous Information and Labor Market Fluctuations","authors":"Venky Venkateswaran","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2687561","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2687561","url":null,"abstract":"I introduce dispersed information in a search and matching model of the labor market, where firms are hit by aggregate and idiosyncratic productivity shocks. The latter induce larger responses in recruiting activity than the former - because aggregate shocks have general equilibrium effects which partially offset the change in fundamentals. Informational frictions prevent firms from disentangling aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks. With Bayesian updating, firms attribute aggregate shocks largely to idiosyncratic factors, because the latter have significantly larger variances. This misattribution translates into an increased responsiveness of employment to aggregate shocks, relative to an economy with full information. I show that in a calibrated model, this channel has quantitatively significant effects and offers a potential solution to a well-known puzzle - the inability of standard search and matching models to generate sufficient volatility in labor market variables. In particular, the model with dispersed information brings the relative volatilities of employment and market tightness very close to those observed in the data.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121839815","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 22
Disaggregate It Further: A Brief Rejoinder to Andrew Young (2012) 进一步分解:对安德鲁·杨(2012)的简短反驳
ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2013-12-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2367967
D. Gorbatenko
{"title":"Disaggregate It Further: A Brief Rejoinder to Andrew Young (2012)","authors":"D. Gorbatenko","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2367967","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2367967","url":null,"abstract":"Young (2011) proposes a sophisticated approach to confronting the Austrian Business Cycle Theory with evidence. However, this approach is ultimately inconsistent with the central prediction of the theory about the presence of excessively roundabout investment projects turning sour on the eve of the economic bust. The problems of this approach ultimately stem from an excessively aggregative version of the theory.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124794786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Residential Migration, Entry, and Exit as Seen Through the Lens of Credit Bureau Data 从信用局数据的角度看居民迁移、入境和出境
ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2013-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2365794
Keith E. Wardrip, R. Hunt
{"title":"Residential Migration, Entry, and Exit as Seen Through the Lens of Credit Bureau Data","authors":"Keith E. Wardrip, R. Hunt","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2365794","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2365794","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze a large, nationally representative anonymized data set of consumers with a credit report from 2002 to 2010. This is a period that encompasses a boom and bust in consumer credit. Using census data, we classify consumers into four categories of relative neighborhood income and find that, over time, the number and proportion of consumers with a credit report fell in low- and moderate-income neighborhoods and rose in higher-income neighborhoods. Population trends evident from census data explain only a portion of these changes in the location of the credit bureau population. In most instances, the primary driver reflects residential migration from relatively poorer neighborhoods to ones with relatively higher incomes. Patterns of entry into or exit from the credit bureau population were correlated with the credit cycle, as well as with relative neighborhood income, resulting in slower sample growth in low- and moderate-income neighborhoods during periods of credit contraction. These results are interesting in themselves, but they are also important for interpreting empirical results estimated from credit bureau data.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130928842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 18
Procyclicality of Pension Fund Regulation and Behaviour 养老基金监管与行为的顺周期性
ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2013-11-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2361388
W. Romp
{"title":"Procyclicality of Pension Fund Regulation and Behaviour","authors":"W. Romp","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2361388","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2361388","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the labour market effects of pension fund restoration plans at a business cycle frequency. During a recession, pension funds’ funding ratios typically drop significantly and regulations force funds to restore their buffers by increasing their contributions, lower future indexation or cut liabilities immediately. Using a standard search and matching model of the labour market, I find that especially raising contribution rates has significant amplification effects on the key labour market statistics. A less distorting solution is to let pension rights fluctuate with the value of the pension assets and to use pension contributions only to finance new rights. This paper shows that risk sharing via the pension system will amplify labour market fluctuations, something not taken into account by standard risk sharing recipes.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"109 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116673278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Limited Participation in International Business Cycle Models: A Formal Evaluation 国际经济周期模型的有限参与:一项正式评估
ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2013-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1990009
Xiaodan Gao, Viktoria V. Hnatkovska, Vadim Marmer
{"title":"Limited Participation in International Business Cycle Models: A Formal Evaluation","authors":"Xiaodan Gao, Viktoria V. Hnatkovska, Vadim Marmer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1990009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1990009","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we argue that limited asset market participation (LAMP) plays an important role in explaining international business cycles. We show that when LAMP is introduced into an otherwise standard model of international business cycles, the performance of the model improves significantly, especially in matching cross-country correlations. To perform formal evaluation of the models we develop a novel statistical procedure that adapts the statistical framework of Vuong (1989) to DSGE models. Using this methodology, we show that the improvements brought out by LAMP are statistically significant, leading a model with LAMP to outperform a representative agent model. Furthermore, when LAMP is introduced, a model with complete markets is found to do as well as a model with no trade in financial assets -- a well-known favorite in the literature. Our results remain robust to the inclusion of investment specific technology shocks.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"72 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130712085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11
Fiscal Adjustments and Business Cycle Synchronization 财政调整与经济周期同步
ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2013-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2387477
L. Agnello, G. Caporale, Ricardo M. Sousa
{"title":"Fiscal Adjustments and Business Cycle Synchronization","authors":"L. Agnello, G. Caporale, Ricardo M. Sousa","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2387477","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2387477","url":null,"abstract":"Using a panel of annual data for 20 countries we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked, especially in the case of fiscal adjustments lasting 2 or 3 years. We also find: (i) little evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchange rates and become members of a monetary union; (iii) a positive effect of bilateral trade on the synchronization of business cycles.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"89 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132410584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Cross Country Linkages as Determinants of Procyclicality of Loan Loss Provisions – Empirical Importance of Sure Specification 作为贷款损失准备金顺周期性决定因素的跨国联系--确定规范的经验重要性
ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2013-10-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2377232
M. Olszak, Mateusz Pipień
{"title":"Cross Country Linkages as Determinants of Procyclicality of Loan Loss Provisions – Empirical Importance of Sure Specification","authors":"M. Olszak, Mateusz Pipień","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2377232","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2377232","url":null,"abstract":"Procyclicality in banking may result in financial instability and therefore be destructive to economic growth. The sensitivity of different banking balance sheet and income statement variables to the business cycle is diversified and may be prone to increasing integration of financial markets. In this paper we address the problem of the influence of financial integration on the transmission of economic shocks from one country to another and consequently on the sensitivity of loan loss provisions to the business cycle. We also aim to find out whether earnings management hypotheses are supported throughout the whole business cycle. Application of the SURE approach to 13 OECD countries in 1995-2009 shows that the procyclicality of LLP is statistically significant almost in thewhole sample of countries. Independent of the econometric specification, the earnings management hypotheses are hardly supported.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"04 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131025053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Austrian Business Cycle Theory Without Unrealistic Constructs 没有不切实际构想的奥地利经济周期理论
ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2013-10-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2340663
D. Gorbatenko
{"title":"Austrian Business Cycle Theory Without Unrealistic Constructs","authors":"D. Gorbatenko","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2340663","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2340663","url":null,"abstract":"Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT) purports to explain recurrent clusters of unsustainably lengthy investment projects following episodes of credit expansion by central banks. In this paper, we show that doing justice to the insights behind ABCT requires a disequilibrium-based restatement of the theory and abandonment of unrealistic equilibrium and equilibrium-related constructs. We also sketch the contours of the explanation of the genuine errors that need to be made to set the stage for the unsustainable boom described by ABCT.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133163437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
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