ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)最新文献_第7页

The Assets and Liabilities of Cohorts: The Antecedents of Retirement Security 群体的资产与负债:退休保障的前提

ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2013-10-04 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2376841

J. Collins, J. Scholz, Ananth Seshadri

{"title":"The Assets and Liabilities of Cohorts: The Antecedents of Retirement Security","authors":"J. Collins, J. Scholz, Ananth Seshadri","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2376841","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2376841","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses repeated cross-sectional data from the Surveys of Consumer Finances (SCF) to characterize cohort patterns of net worth and debt of American households. Cohort patterns provide a useful benchmark for identifying potentially vulnerable households based on relative financial positions over time at similar ages. We also summarize attitudinal measures thought to be related financial capability. Both sets of descriptive data are useful in assessing the well-being of households over the life course and ultimately preparation for retirement. We find a striking rise in debt across cohorts over time, relative to total assets and relative to income, although debt-holding declines with age as is expected. Debt is dominated by mortgages, particularly for more recent cohorts relative to similar aged cohorts 15 year prior. Tabulations of age cohorts by race or education level show predictable similar patterns. An analysis of panel data using the 2007-2009 SCF provides some support for the idea that older households lost more during the recession, as did minorities and people of higher levels of net worth. While primarily descriptive in nature, the stylized facts presented in this paper are suggestive of the trajectory for households moving into retirement age over the next decade. We do not find substantial evidence of more recent generations falling behind, nor major shifts in attitudes towards risk taking or other attitudes that might be reasonably correlated with asset or debt levels.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115237277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 7

Economic Cycles and Their Synchronization: A Survey of Spectral Properties 经济周期及其同步性:光谱性质综述

ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2013-08-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2380143

L. Sella, G. Vivaldo, Andreas Groth, M. Ghil

{"title":"Economic Cycles and Their Synchronization: A Survey of Spectral Properties","authors":"L. Sella, G. Vivaldo, Andreas Groth, M. Ghil","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2380143","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2380143","url":null,"abstract":"The present work applies several advanced spectral methods to the analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations in three countries of the European Union: Italy, The Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. We focus here in particular on singular-spectrum analysis (SSA), which provides valuable spatial and frequency information of multivariate data and that goes far beyond a pure analysis in the time domain. The spectral methods discussed here are well established in the geosciences and life sciences, but not yet widespread in quantitative economics. In particular, they enable one to identify and describe nonlinear trends and dominant cycles | including seasonal and interannual components that characterize the deterministic behavior of each time series. These tools have already proven their robustness in the application on short and noisy data, and we demonstrate their usefulness in the analysis of the macroeconomic indicators of these three countries. We explore several fundamental indicators of the countries' real aggregate economy in a univariate, as well as a multivariate setting. Starting with individual single-channel analysis, we are able to identify similar spectral components among the analyzed indicators. Next, we consider combinations of indicators and countries, in order to take different effects of comovements into account. Since business cycles are cross-national phenomena, which show common characteristics across countries, our aim is to uncover hidden global behavior across the European economies. Results are compared with previous findings on the U.S. indicators (Groth et al., 2012). Finally, the analysis is extended to include several indicators from the U.S. economy, in order to examine its influence on the European market.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"77 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131448050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 7

Recessions, Growth and Banking Crises 衰退、增长和银行业危机

ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2013-05-24 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2269676

G. Dwyer, J. Devereux, S. Baier, Robert Tamura

引用次数: 20

Balance Sheet Strength and Bank Lending: Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis 资产负债表实力与银行贷款:来自全球金融危机的证据

ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2013-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2247185

Tumer Kapan, Camelia Minoiu

引用次数: 105

Does the Timing of Dividend Reductions Signal Value? Empirical Evidence 削减股息的时机是否预示着价值?经验证据

ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2013-04-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2243505

Tyler Hull

{"title":"Does the Timing of Dividend Reductions Signal Value? Empirical Evidence","authors":"Tyler Hull","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2243505","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2243505","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines a firm’s dividend reduction timing relative to other dividend reductions in the same industry. It tests if the timing of dividend cuts is informative in firm valuation. The findings suggest that during periods of less accessible external financing, such as recessions, firms with greater investment opportunities are among the first firms to make necessary dividend reductions to take advantage of such opportunities. When external financing is more accessible, firms with superior investment opportunities are able to access capital markets in lieu of dividend-reducing internal financing, indicating higher firm values for earlier dividend reductions during periods of costly external financing and significantly lower firm values for early reductions when financing is more easily obtained. A series of empirical tests show that, in periods of less accessible external financing or during a recession, early dividend-reducing firms significantly outperform late reducers in announcement day and contraction cycle cumulative abnormal returns. The results also show that, outside of a recession, early dividend-reducing firms have significantly lower industry contraction cycle returns than late dividend reducers. Additionally, this study compares early dividend reductions that occur during periods of costly external financing (or during a recession) against early reductions that occur when external financing is more available (or outside of a recession) and finds the former to have significantly higher announcement day and contraction cycle cumulative abnormal returns.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"162 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128298611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 19

On the Phase Dependence in Time-Varying Correlations between Time-Series 时间序列间时变相关的相位依赖性研究

ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2013-04-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2244937

F. Blasques

引用次数: 0

Active Asset Allocation Among a Large Set of Stocks: How Effective is the Parametric Rule? 大量股票中的主动资产配置:参数规则的有效性如何?

ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2013-03-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2139878

Huacheng Zhang

引用次数: 3

Impact of Food Price Changes on Household Welfare in Ghana 粮食价格变动对加纳家庭福利的影响

ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2013-02-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2228922

N. Minot, Reno Dewina

{"title":"Impact of Food Price Changes on Household Welfare in Ghana","authors":"N. Minot, Reno Dewina","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2228922","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2228922","url":null,"abstract":"In the wake of the global food crisis of 2007-08 and additional price spikes since then, greater attention has been given to the welfare impact of food price increases in developing countries. The standard approach in this type of analysis, proposed by Deaton (1989), is based on income and expenditure data from household surveys. Given the widespread use of this method, it is important to revisit the assumptions behind it and examine the sensitivity of results to those assumptions. In this paper, we explore the distributional impact of higher maize, rice, and food prices in Ghana and analyze the robustness of those results to changes in several key assumptions.The results suggest that higher maize and rice prices have a relatively modest short-term impact on national poverty but significant effects on specific groups of households. As expected, urban households lose from higher grain prices, but a surprisingly large share of rural households also lose because they are net buyers. The results also suggest that the current policy of protecting domestic rice producers with an import tax does not contribute to national poverty reduction, in spite of the fact that rice growers tend to be poor.If we relax the assumption that households do not respond to the higher prices, the effects are more positive or less negative, but only modestly so. On the other hand, if we relax the assumption that producer and consumer prices rise by the same proportion, and instead assume a constant marketing margin, the results change substantially. Because producer prices now rise by a larger proportion than consumer prices, the impact of higher prices is much more positive. These findings highlight the need for more research on the effect of price spikes on marketing margins.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"80 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124858245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 52

Distribution Capital and the Short- and Long-Run Import Demand Elasticity 分配资本与短期和长期进口需求弹性

ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2013-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2314690

Mario J. Crucini, Scott M. Davis

引用次数: 27

From Wall Street to Main Street: The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Consumer Credit Supply 从华尔街到主街:金融危机对消费信贷供给的影响

ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2012-12-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2244545

Rodney Ramcharan, Skander J. Van den Heuvel, Stéphane Verani

引用次数: 89