ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"Global Financial Crisis and Decoupling Hypothesis","authors":"Joanna Wyrobek, Z. Stanczyk","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2154253","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2154253","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of the paper was to present the decoupling hypothesis which says that the performance of the emerging economies becomes relatively independent from the changes in advanced economies, and to empirically verify this hypothesis. The Christiano-Fitzgerald band-pass filter and spectral analyses have been applied to examine the hypothesis. On the basis of obtained results, if one compares the deviations of GDPs from their long-term trend, it seems that the synchronization of cycles between emerging and advanced economies was already high before the crisis. The last global crisis, especially if time shifts between the countries are taken into account, even increased the synchronization of the economies. Therefore, this paper presents evidence against the decoupling hypothesis, and at the same time it raises doubts whether the high rates of growth in emerging economies can be sustainable in the presence of the slow-down in the advanced economies.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124482091","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Distributional Impact of the Great Recession on Industry Unemployment for 1976-2011","authors":"Yelena Takhtamanova, Eva Sierminska","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2138178","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2138178","url":null,"abstract":"The recession the United States economy entered in December of 2007 is considered to be the most severe downturn the country has experienced since the Great Depression. In this paper we decompose the changes in the unemployment rate by examining worker flows into and out of unemployment during the last four recessions in the United States with a special focus on the industry groups. Since the most recent economic downturn has been triggered by the collapse of the housing market, we are interested in looking at the industries that are most affected by the housing market weakness (such as construction and finance, insurance and real estate). In addition to documenting and comparing industry experiences and industry contributions to the aggregate unemployment rate changes, we attempt to evaluate the relative importance of cyclical and structural forces driving industry-specific unemployment rate changes. This question is of importance to policymakers as cyclical and structural changes call for different policy responses. We use publicly available data from the Current Population Survey (CPS). Three series are necessary to compute the unemployment inflow and outflow rates by industry: the number of unemployed, the unemployment rate and the number of short-term unemployed (those unemployed for less than 5 weeks). These series for the broadest industry classification are available from BLS, but only from 2000. We obtain data that goes back beyond 2000 and reclassify according the BLS guidelines. Our task is complicated by the change in industry classification of the CPS in 1983 and 2003 and the 1994 re-design of the CPS survey. We extend our data further back and look at a finer disaggregation, which allows us to make comparisons previously not possible. We find that construction, manufacturing and services were the three industries that contributed the most to the aggregate unemployment rate increase during the most recent downturn. However, the burden of unemployment was not evenly distributed across these industries: while the contribution of construction and manufacturing by far exceeded their share in the labor force, the opposite is the case for services. During the recovery, construction and manufacturing are strong \"drivers\" of the unemployment rate decline, but services are not. In terms of job flows, the dramatic decline in the job finding probability was the main source of the recessionary unemployment rate increase. In particular, the decline in job finding probability in services, manufacturing, construction and wholesale and retail trade were large contributors. It is the lack of strong recovery in job finding probability that seems to be holding unemployment rate from declining more rapidly during the recovery. Services and public administration stand out as sectors that provided relief in the past recoveries, but are not doing so this time around.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125476109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Time to Produce and Emerging Market Crises","authors":"F. Schwartzman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2189548","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2189548","url":null,"abstract":"The opportunity cost of waiting for goods to be produced and sold increases with the cost of financing. This channel is evident in emerging market crises, when industries that use more inventories lose more of their output and lag behind in the recovery. An open economy model with lags in the production process (\"time to produce\") generates comparable cross-sectoral differences in response to a shock to the foreign interest rate and, in the year of the crisis, accounts for up to 25% of the deviation of output from its previous trend. In contrast, an equivalent model without time to produce generates a boom in the year of the crisis and cannot account for the cross-sectoral differences. Likewise, it is impossible to generate the cross-sectoral differences in response to a productivity shock.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131431651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Business Cycle Synchronization in Poland, The Euro Zone and New Member States of the European Union","authors":"Joanna Wyrobek, Z. Stanczyk","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2028639","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2028639","url":null,"abstract":"The paper examines the synchronization of business cycles between Poland and the euro zone and selected members of the European Union with the reference to the length, coherence, amplitude and phase shifts of the cycles. The length of the cycles in Poland is similar to the length of the cycles in the euro zone and the new member states of the European Union. The coherence between cycles in Poland and in the euro area is high, but it is low between Poland and new member states of the European Union. The amplitude of fluctuations of cycles in Poland has become closer to the amplitude of fluctuations in the euro zone, and the euro zone business cycle is ahead of the Polish cycle now. The paper applies spectral and co-integration methods to show the relations between business cycles.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128350060","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in Svar Models: A Graphical Modelling Approach","authors":"Matteo Fragetta, Giovanni Melina","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-9485.2011.00558.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9485.2011.00558.x","url":null,"abstract":"We apply graphical modelling theory to identify fiscal policy shocks in SVAR models of the US economy. Unlike other econometric approaches of which achieve identification by relying on potentially contentious a priori assumptions of graphical modelling is a data based tool. Our results are in line with Keynesian theoretical models, being also quantitatively similar to those obtained in the recent SVAR literature a la Blanchard and Perotti (2002), and contrast with neoclassical real business cycle predictions. Stability checks confirm that our findings are not driven by sample selection.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114867824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cyclical Asymmetry in Fiscal Variables","authors":"Fabrizio Balassone, M. Francese, Stefania Zotteri","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2004465","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2004465","url":null,"abstract":"In a stylised framework of fiscal policy determination that considers both structural targets and cyclical factors, we find significant cyclical asymmetry in the behaviour of fiscal variables in a sample of fourteen EU countries from 1970 to 2004, with budgetary balances (both overall and primary) deteriorating in contractions but not improving correspondingly in expansions. Analysis of budget components reveals that the asymmetry is due to expenditure, in particular transfers in cash. We find no evidence that the fiscal rules introduced in 1992 with the Treaty of Maastricht affected the cyclical behaviour of the variables examined. Numerical simulations show that cyclical asymmetry inflated average deficit levels, contributing significantly to the accumulation of debt.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131005480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Business Cycles Fluctuations in Latin America before and after the Upsurge of China","authors":"M. Ivanova Reyes","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3389386","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3389386","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper I use a factor structural vector autoregression to estimate if the cycles of Latin America are now more influenced by global conditions. I study this question as the region has proven to be resilient in terms of economic growth after the global financial crisis in spite of being more integrated with the world economy. In particular, I try to assess if the resilience of the region relates to a greater integration to the Chinese economy while being less in line with the cycles of the United States. In my estimations I decompose the variance of the error term of a factor structural VAR of the four largest Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico) with its three largest trade partners (the United States, the European Union and China). At the same time, I contrast two periods, the fifteen years before and after China joined the World Trade Organization. My results indicate that the cycles of most Latin American countries are now more heavily driven by global shocks, and at the same time these nations tend to see a reduction in their variance during 2002-17 relative to 1987-2001. This behavior takes place at the same time that China increases its role in the global economy while reduces the magnitude and propagation of its domestic shocks.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"90 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"113989905","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}