Business Cycle Synchronization in Poland, The Euro Zone and New Member States of the European Union

Abstract

The paper examines the synchronization of business cycles between Poland and the euro zone and selected members of the European Union with the reference to the length, coherence, amplitude and phase shifts of the cycles. The length of the cycles in Poland is similar to the length of the cycles in the euro zone and the new member states of the European Union. The coherence between cycles in Poland and in the euro area is high, but it is low between Poland and new member states of the European Union. The amplitude of fluctuations of cycles in Poland has become closer to the amplitude of fluctuations in the euro zone, and the euro zone business cycle is ahead of the Polish cycle now. The paper applies spectral and co-integration methods to show the relations between business cycles.