Residential Migration, Entry, and Exit as Seen Through the Lens of Credit Bureau Data

Abstract

We analyze a large, nationally representative anonymized data set of consumers with a credit report from 2002 to 2010. This is a period that encompasses a boom and bust in consumer credit. Using census data, we classify consumers into four categories of relative neighborhood income and find that, over time, the number and proportion of consumers with a credit report fell in low- and moderate-income neighborhoods and rose in higher-income neighborhoods. Population trends evident from census data explain only a portion of these changes in the location of the credit bureau population. In most instances, the primary driver reflects residential migration from relatively poorer neighborhoods to ones with relatively higher incomes. Patterns of entry into or exit from the credit bureau population were correlated with the credit cycle, as well as with relative neighborhood income, resulting in slower sample growth in low- and moderate-income neighborhoods during periods of credit contraction. These results are interesting in themselves, but they are also important for interpreting empirical results estimated from credit bureau data.