Crime Science最新文献_第6页

Illegal waste fly-tipping in the Covid-19 pandemic: enhanced compliance, temporal displacement, and urban-rural variation. 2019冠状病毒病大流行中的非法垃圾倾倒:加强合规、时间位移和城乡差异

IF 6.1

Crime Science Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1186/s40163-022-00170-3

Anthony C Dixon, Graham Farrell, Nick Tilley

{"title":"Illegal waste fly-tipping in the Covid-19 pandemic: enhanced compliance, temporal displacement, and urban-rural variation.","authors":"Anthony C Dixon, Graham Farrell, Nick Tilley","doi":"10.1186/s40163-022-00170-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-022-00170-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>Illegal dumping of household and business waste, known as fly-tipping in the UK, is a significant environmental crime. News agencies reported major increases early in the COVID-19 pandemic when waste disposal services were closed or disrupted. This study examines the effect of lockdowns on illegal dumping in the UK.</p><p><strong>Method: </strong>A freedom of information request was sent to all local authorities in the UK asking for records of reported incidents of fly-tipping for before and after the first national lockdown. ARIMA modelling and year-on-year comparison was used to compare observed and expected levels of fly-tipping. Urban and rural local authorities were compared.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A statistically significant decline in fly-tipping during the first lockdown was followed by a similar increase when lockdown ended. The effects largely cancelled each other out. There was pronounced variation in urban-rural experience: urban areas, with higher rates generally, experienced most of the initial drop in fly-tipping while some rural authorities experienced an increase.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Waste services promote compliance with laws against illegal dumping. When those services were disrupted during lockdown it was expected that fly-tipping would increase but, counter-intuitively, it declined. This enhanced compliance effect was likely due to increased perceived risk in densely populated urban areas. However, as lockdown restrictions were eased, fly-tipping increased to clear the backlog, indicating temporal displacement.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40163-022-00170-3.</p>","PeriodicalId":37844,"journal":{"name":"Crime Science","volume":"11 1","pages":"8"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9510297/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10326862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Identifying seasonal spatial patterns of crime in a small northern city 确定北部一个小城市犯罪的季节性空间模式

IF 6.1

Crime Science Pub Date : 2021-10-26 DOI: 10.1186/s40163-021-00161-w

Castle, Ysabel A., Kovacs, John M.

{"title":"Identifying seasonal spatial patterns of crime in a small northern city","authors":"Castle, Ysabel A., Kovacs, John M.","doi":"10.1186/s40163-021-00161-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-021-00161-w","url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Objectives</h3><p>To explore spatial patterns of crime in a small northern city, and assess the degree of similarity in these patterns across seasons.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Methods</h3><p>Calls for police service frequently associated with crime (theft, break and enter, domestic dispute, assault, and neighbor disputes) were acquired for a five year time span (2015–2019) for the city of North Bay, Ontario, Canada (population 50,396). Exploratory data analysis was conducted using descriptive statistics and a kernel density mapping technique. Andresen’s spatial point pattern test (SPPT) was then used to assess the degree of similarity between the seasonal patterns (spring, summer, autumn, winter) for each call type at two different spatial scales (dissemination area and census tract).</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Results</h3><p>Exploratory data analysis of crime concentration at street segments showed that calls are generally more dispersed through the city in the warmer seasons of spring and summer. Kernel density mapping also shows increases in the intensity of hotspots at these times, but little overall change in pattern. The SPPT does find some evidence for seasonal differences in crime pattern across the city as a whole, specifically for thefts and break and enters. These differences are focused on the downtown core, as well as the outlying rural areas of the city.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Conclusions</h3><p>For the various crime types examined, preliminary analysis, kernel density mapping, and the SPPT found differences in crime pattern consistent with the routine activities theory.</p>","PeriodicalId":37844,"journal":{"name":"Crime Science","volume":"16 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2021-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138508611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 8

A victim-centred cost–benefit analysis of a stalking prevention programme 以受害者为中心的跟踪行为预防方案成本效益分析

IF 6.1

Crime Science Pub Date : 2021-10-09 DOI: 10.1186/s40163-021-00158-5

Tompson, Lisa, Belur, Jyoti, Jerath, Kritika

引用次数: 3

The influence of changing reward of electronic consumer goods on burglary and theft offences in Western market-based countries in the years prior to and during the crime drop 在西方市场国家，在犯罪率下降前和下降期间，电子消费品奖励的变化对入室盗窃犯罪的影响

IF 6.1

Crime Science Pub Date : 2021-08-28 DOI: 10.1186/s40163-021-00153-w

Liam Quinn, J. Clare

引用次数: 6

A note on the multiplicative fairness score in the NIJ recidivism forecasting challenge 关于NIJ累犯预测挑战中乘法公平得分的说明

IF 6.1

Crime Science Pub Date : 2021-08-06 DOI: 10.1186/s40163-021-00152-x

Mohler, George, Porter, Michael D.

{"title":"A note on the multiplicative fairness score in the NIJ recidivism forecasting challenge","authors":"Mohler, George, Porter, Michael D.","doi":"10.1186/s40163-021-00152-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-021-00152-x","url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Background</h3><p>The 2021 NIJ recidivism forecasting challenge asks participants to construct predictive models of recidivism while balancing false positive rates across groups of Black and white individuals through a multiplicative fairness score. We investigate the performance of several models for forecasting 1-year recidivism and optimizing the NIJ multiplicative fairness metric.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Methods</h3><p>We consider standard linear and logistic regression, a penalized regression that optimizes a convex surrogate loss (that we show has an analytical solution), two post-processing techniques, linear regression with re-balanced data, a black-box general purpose optimizer applied directly to the NIJ metric and a gradient boosting machine learning approach.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Results</h3><p>For the set of models investigated, we find that a simple heuristic of truncating scores at the decision threshold (thus predicting no recidivism across the data) yields as good or better NIJ fairness scores on held out data compared to other, more sophisticated approaches. We also find that when the cutoff is further away from the base rate of recidivism, as is the case in the competition where the base rate is 0.29 and the cutoff is 0.5, then simply optimizing the mean square error gives nearly optimal NIJ fairness metric solutions.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Conclusions</h3><p>The multiplicative metric in the 2021 NIJ recidivism forecasting competition encourages solutions that simply optimize MSE and/or use truncation, therefore yielding trivial solutions that forecast no one will recidivate.</p>","PeriodicalId":37844,"journal":{"name":"Crime Science","volume":"16 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2021-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138508612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 7

Using crime script analysis to elucidate the details of Amur tiger poaching in the Russian Far East 利用犯罪脚本分析，阐明俄罗斯远东地区盗猎东北虎的细节

IF 6.1

Crime Science Pub Date : 2021-06-30 DOI: 10.1186/s40163-021-00150-z

Allison Skidmore

{"title":"Using crime script analysis to elucidate the details of Amur tiger poaching in the Russian Far East","authors":"Allison Skidmore","doi":"10.1186/s40163-021-00150-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-021-00150-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Poaching is the most direct threat to the persistence of Amur tigers. However, little empirical evidence exists about the modus operandi of the offenders associated with this wildlife crime. Crime science can aid conservation efforts by identifying the patterns and opportunity structures that facilitate poaching. By employing semi-structured interviews and participants observation with those directly involved in the poaching and trafficking of Amur tigers in the Russian Far East (RFE), this article utilizes crime script analysis to break down this criminal event into a process of sequential acts. By using this framework, it is possible account for the decisions made and actions taken by offenders before, during and after a tiger poaching event, with the goal of identifying weak points in the chain of actions to develop targeted intervention strategies. Findings indicate poaching is facilitated by the ability to acquire a firearm, presence of roads that enable access to remote forest regions, availability of specific types of tools/equipment, including heat vision googles or a spotlight and a 4 × 4 car, and a culture that fosters corruption. This crime script analysis elucidates possible intervention points, which are discussed alongside each step in the poaching process.</p>","PeriodicalId":37844,"journal":{"name":"Crime Science","volume":"21 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2021-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138508609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 7

Antiquities in a time of conflict: a crime script analysis of antiquities trafficking during the Syrian Civil War and implications for conflict antiquities 冲突时期的文物:叙利亚内战期间文物贩运的犯罪脚本分析及其对冲突文物的影响

IF 6.1

Crime Science Pub Date : 2021-06-23 DOI: 10.1186/s40163-021-00148-7

Christine A. Weirich

引用次数: 2

Systematic review and meta-analysis of risk terrain modelling (RTM) as a spatial forecasting method 风险地形模型(RTM)作为空间预测方法的系统回顾与荟萃分析

IF 6.1

Crime Science Pub Date : 2021-06-16 DOI: 10.1186/s40163-021-00149-6

Zoe Marchment, P. Gill

引用次数: 7

Where should police forces target their residential burglary reduction efforts? Using official victimisation data to predict burglary incidences at the neighbourhood level 警方应该把减少住宅入室盗窃的目标放在哪里?利用官方的受害数据来预测邻里间的入室盗窃事件