Chaos, Solitons and Fractals: X最新文献_第2页

Modeling the spread of infections during an epidemiological outbreak using an improved mathematical model 利用改进的数学模型模拟流行病爆发期间的感染传播

Chaos, Solitons and Fractals: X Pub Date : 2024-05-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.csfx.2024.100111

Nouf Abd Elmunim

{"title":"Modeling the spread of infections during an epidemiological outbreak using an improved mathematical model","authors":"Nouf Abd Elmunim","doi":"10.1016/j.csfx.2024.100111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csfx.2024.100111","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Pandemics occur periodically worldwide. An accurate forecasting model is therefore essential to estimate the effect of the pandemic and plan accordingly. This research aims to provide a solution that could help the world predict the number of infection cases during pandemics and prepare to accommodate subsequent cases. The mathematical Multiplicative Holt–Winter (M-HW) model was improved regarding the data used to provide an accurate forecast. The model was applied to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) data, where COVID-19 is the recent pandemic that affected all nations worldwide since 2019. Two different periods in Saudi Arabia were modelled to estimate COVID-19 cases. Based on the daily confirmed cases in February 2023 and February 2022, the model showed accuracy of 99.51 % and 99.66 %, respectively. A MAPE value in February 2023 ranges between 0.015 and 1.07, while it ranges between 0.032 and 2.269 in February 2022. Additionally, the RMSE in February 2023 was 0.35, while in February 2022 it was 6.88. The model proved to be accurate and highly efficient. Thus, M-HW model is useful to forecast the number of cases in different regions in case of a pandemic, which makes a significant contribution to mitigating the spread of the virus minimizing the epidemiological spread impact on healthcare systems and focusing on managing and containing the epidemiological spread.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":37147,"journal":{"name":"Chaos, Solitons and Fractals: X","volume":"12 ","pages":"Article 100111"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590054424000083/pdfft?md5=b3fceba1f3a2cfb95e31d29b4c6d7b36&pid=1-s2.0-S2590054424000083-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141097743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A powerful tool for dealing with high-dimensional fractional-order systems with applications to fractional Emden–Fowler systems 处理高维分数阶系统的强大工具，应用于分数埃姆登-福勒系统

Chaos, Solitons and Fractals: X Pub Date : 2024-05-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.csfx.2024.100110

Shaher Momani , Iqbal M. Batiha , Amira Abdelnebi , Iqbal H. Jebril

引用次数: 0

An investigation into the controllability of multivalued stochastic fractional differential inclusions 多值随机分数微分夹杂的可控性研究

Chaos, Solitons and Fractals: X Pub Date : 2024-02-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.csfx.2024.100107

Pallavi Bedi , Anoop Kumar , Gaurav Deora , Aziz Khan , Thabet Abdeljawad

引用次数: 0

Moment dynamics for stochastic resonance in active rotator systems 主动转子系统中随机共振的力矩动力学

Chaos, Solitons and Fractals: X Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.csfx.2024.100108

Ruonan Liu , Yanmei Kang

引用次数: 0

Stability, numerical simulations, and applications of Helmholtz-Duffing fractional differential equations 赫尔姆霍兹-杜芬分数微分方程的稳定性、数值模拟和应用

Chaos, Solitons and Fractals: X Pub Date : 2024-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.csfx.2024.100106

M. Sivashankar , S. Sabarinathan , Kottakkaran Sooppy Nisar , C. Ravichandran , B.V. Senthil Kumar

引用次数: 0

Stability analysis and suppress chaos in the generalized Lorenz model 广义洛伦兹模型的稳定性分析与混沌抑制

Chaos, Solitons and Fractals: X Pub Date : 2024-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.csfx.2024.100104

Hamza Rouah

引用次数: 0

A new method for a semi-positone Hadamard fractional boundary value problem 半正数Hadamard分数边值问题的一种新方法

Chaos, Solitons and Fractals: X Pub Date : 2023-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.csfx.2023.100102

Rui Liu , Chengbo Zhai , Jing Ren

引用次数: 0

Analysis of perturbation factors and fractional order derivatives for the novel singular model using the fractional Meyer wavelet neural networks 用分数阶Meyer小波神经网络分析奇异模型的扰动因子和分数阶导数

Chaos, Solitons and Fractals: X Pub Date : 2023-08-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.csfx.2023.100100

Zulqurnain Sabir , Mohamed R. Ali

{"title":"Analysis of perturbation factors and fractional order derivatives for the novel singular model using the fractional Meyer wavelet neural networks","authors":"Zulqurnain Sabir , Mohamed R. Ali","doi":"10.1016/j.csfx.2023.100100","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csfx.2023.100100","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this study, an analysis of the perturbation factors and fractional order derivatives is performed for the novel singular model. The design of the perturbed fractional order singular model is presented by using the traditional form of the Lane-Emden along with the detail of singular points, fractional order, shape, and perturbed factors. The analysis of the perturbation factors and fractional order terms for the singular model is provided in two steps by taking three different values of the perturbed term as well as fractional order derivatives. The numerical analysis of the perturbation and fractional order terms for the novel fractional Meyer wavelet neural network (FMWNN) along with the global and local search effectiveness of the genetic algorithm (GA) and active-set algorithm (ASA) called as FMWNN-GAASA. The modeling of the FMWNN is presented in terms of mean square error, while the optimization is performed through the GAASA. The authentication, validation, excellence, and correctness of the singular model are observed by using the comparative performances of the obtained and the reference solutions. The stability of the proposed stochastic scheme is observed through the statistical performances for taking large datasets to present the analysis of the perturbation and fractional order terms.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":37147,"journal":{"name":"Chaos, Solitons and Fractals: X","volume":"11 ","pages":"Article 100100"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49795386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Analysis of dengue infection transmission dynamics in Nepal using fractional order mathematical modeling 尼泊尔登革热感染传播动态的分数阶数学模型分析

Chaos, Solitons and Fractals: X Pub Date : 2023-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.csfx.2023.100098

Hem Raj Pandey , Ganga Ram Phaijoo , Dil Bahadur Gurung

{"title":"Analysis of dengue infection transmission dynamics in Nepal using fractional order mathematical modeling","authors":"Hem Raj Pandey , Ganga Ram Phaijoo , Dil Bahadur Gurung","doi":"10.1016/j.csfx.2023.100098","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csfx.2023.100098","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Dengue is a significant factor to the global public health issue, including Nepal. In Nepal from <span><math><mrow><mn>2004</mn><mo>−</mo><mn>2022</mn></mrow></math></span>, the largest outbreak occurred in the year 2022. Dengue infection cases appeared all over 77 districts of Nepal. The Caputo fractional order SEIR-SEI epidemic model is able to describe dengue disease transmission dynamics of present situation. For fundamental mathematical guarantees of epidemic model equations, we studied the Lipschitz and Banach contraction theorems to show that the model equations have a unique solution. The Ulam-Hyres stability is established in the model. Next generation matrix approach is used to calculate the associated basic reproduction number <span><math><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></math></span>. The model equilibrium points are identified, and the local asymptotic stability for disease-free equilibrium point is analyzed. Normalized forward and partial rank correlation coefficient are used for sensitivity study to identify the factors that affect dengue infection with respect to basic reproduction number. Using real data of Nepal, the model is fitted and the least square method is used for estimating parameters. Numerical scheme has been illustrated using a two-step Lagrange interpolation approach and the solution is approximated. With numerical results and sensitivity analysis, it is concluded that biting rate and death rate of mosquito are extremely sensitive to the disease transmission. The transmission increases with increasing biting rate and decreases with decreasing mosquito death rate. For the year 2022, <span><math><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub><mo>=</mo><mn>1.7739</mn><mo>></mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></math></span> showing that the disease is endemic. Thus, effective control measure should be implemented to combat the dengue virus. However, further research needs to be undertaken to assess the impact of such control measures.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":37147,"journal":{"name":"Chaos, Solitons and Fractals: X","volume":"11 ","pages":"Article 100098"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49795384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Novel theorems for a Bochner flat Lorentzian Ka¨hler space-time manifold with η-Ricci-Yamabe solitons 具有η-Ricki-Yamabe孤子的Bochner平坦Lorentzian-Ka¨hler时空流形的新定理

Chaos, Solitons and Fractals: X Pub Date : 2023-06-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.csfx.2023.100097

B.B. Chaturvedi , Prabhawati Bhagat , Mohammad Nazrul Islam Khan

引用次数: 0