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2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)最新文献

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Panel on Ethical Constraints on Validation, Verification, and Application of Simulation 仿真验证、验证和应用的伦理约束小组
2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2021-12-12 DOI: 10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715431
A. Tolk, Justin E. Lane, F. Shults, W. Wildman
{"title":"Panel on Ethical Constraints on Validation, Verification, and Application of Simulation","authors":"A. Tolk, Justin E. Lane, F. Shults, W. Wildman","doi":"10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715431","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715431","url":null,"abstract":"Today's challenges must be addressed as socio-technical systems, including insights from the social sciences and humanities to adequately represent the human components. As results of simulations are increasingly driving and justifying political and social decisions, it is important to validate and verify (V&V) simulation and data. However, the understanding of what establishes truth and how these views impact validation differ between the social and technical partners. Therefore, we must expand our view of V&V. The panel provides various use cases and derives ethical questions related to supporting universities during the COVID-19 pandemic, creating multi-disciplinary teams with diverse viewpoints, challenges of using validated insights without critical evaluation, and lack of broadly accepted scientific measures to connect social models and empirical data. We conclude that the role of V&V must be reemphasized, that its social-theoretical implications must be better understood, and that it should be driven by an overarching metaethical framework.","PeriodicalId":369368,"journal":{"name":"2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132909356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR GENERATIVE METHODS IN THE CYBER DOMAIN 网络领域生成方法的挑战与机遇
2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2021-12-12 DOI: 10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715504
Marc Chalé, Nathaniel D. Bastian
{"title":"CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR GENERATIVE METHODS IN THE CYBER DOMAIN","authors":"Marc Chalé, Nathaniel D. Bastian","doi":"10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715504","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715504","url":null,"abstract":"Large, high quality data sets are essential for training machine learning models to perform their tasks accurately. The lack of such training data has constrained machine learning research in the cyber domain. This work explores how Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods can be used for realistic synthetic data generation and compares it to several existing generative machine learning techniques. The performance of MCMC is compared to generative adversarial network (GAN) and variational autoencoder (VAE) methods to estimate the joint probability distribution of network intrusion detection system data. A statistical analysis of the synthetically generated cyber data determines the goodness of fit, aiming to improve cyber threat detection. The experimental results suggest that the data generated from MCMC fits the true distribution approximately as well as the data generated from GAN and VAE; however, the MCMC requires a significantly longer training period and is unproven for higher dimensional cyber data.","PeriodicalId":369368,"journal":{"name":"2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128141436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
BPMN-Based Simulation Analysis of the COVID-19 Impact on Emergency Departments: A Case Study in Italy 基于bpmn的新型冠状病毒肺炎对急诊部门影响模拟分析——以意大利为例
2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2021-12-12 DOI: 10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715495
Carole Neuner, Paolo Bocciarelli, A. D’Ambrogio
{"title":"BPMN-Based Simulation Analysis of the COVID-19 Impact on Emergency Departments: A Case Study in Italy","authors":"Carole Neuner, Paolo Bocciarelli, A. D’Ambrogio","doi":"10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715495","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715495","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 outbreak, which has been recognized as a pandemic in March 2020, has brought the need to timely face an extraordinary demand of health-related resources and medical assistance. The objective of this work is to analyze the structural and procedural changes that have been enacted in an emergency department (ED), according to guidelines provided by national authorities. Specifically, guidelines deal with how to manage the access of COVID-19 patients, ensure the isolation of suspected cases, execute a proper triage, and identify the appropriate treatment path for all patients. The paper describes a process modeling and simulation-based approach to analyze the treatment of patients accessing the ED of an Italian hospital. The approach makes use of the Business Process Model and Notation standard to specify ED treatment processes before and during the pandemic, so to evaluate different scenarios and effectively support process improvement activities by use of simulation-based what-if analysis.","PeriodicalId":369368,"journal":{"name":"2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"92 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134411774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Multi-Agent System Model for Dynamic Scheduling in Flexibile Job Shops 柔性作业车间动态调度的多智能体系统模型
2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2021-12-12 DOI: 10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715441
A. Ebufegha, Simon Li
{"title":"Multi-Agent System Model for Dynamic Scheduling in Flexibile Job Shops","authors":"A. Ebufegha, Simon Li","doi":"10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715441","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715441","url":null,"abstract":"One of the hallmarks of industry 4.0 is the development of a smart manufacturing system (SMS). These are highly modular systems, with every physical resource being autonomous and capable of exchanging information with each other over an industrial network. The resources can self-organize to schedule job shop operations in real-time. The ability to schedule in real-time allows for better use of the flexibility in part processing operation sequences than with conventional manufacturing systems. This could potentially result in reduced order completion times and increased average machine utilization. However, it is difficult to investigate the benefits of such a system as they are expensive to build as such a simulation is necessary. This paper presents model for a dynamic scheduling in an SMS well as a multi-method model for simulating its operation. The paper also presents a preliminary investigation into the benefits of the proposed scheduling strategy.","PeriodicalId":369368,"journal":{"name":"2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132122003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Reflections On Simulation Optimization 关于仿真优化的几点思考
2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2021-12-12 DOI: 10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715361
S. Henderson
{"title":"Reflections On Simulation Optimization","authors":"S. Henderson","doi":"10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715361","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715361","url":null,"abstract":"I provide some perspectives on simulation optimization. First, more attention should be devoted to the finite-time performance of solvers than on ensuring convergence properties that may only arise in asymptotic time scales that may never be reached in practice. Both analytical results and computational experiments can further this goal. Second, so-called sample-path functions can exhibit extremely complex behavior that is well worth understanding in selecting a solver and its parameters. Third, I advocate the use of a layered approach to formulating and solving optimization problems, whereby a sequence of models are built and optimized, rather than first building a simulation model and only later “bolting on” optimization.","PeriodicalId":369368,"journal":{"name":"2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128791644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Customer Path Generation Simulation for Selection from Proposed Grocery Store Layouts 从建议的杂货店布局中进行选择的顾客路径生成仿真
2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2021-12-12 DOI: 10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715297
Kimberly Holmgren
{"title":"Customer Path Generation Simulation for Selection from Proposed Grocery Store Layouts","authors":"Kimberly Holmgren","doi":"10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715297","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715297","url":null,"abstract":"Before a grocery store opens, key operational decisions must be made with no historical data. One important decision is how to optimally lay out the store to maximize consumer spending. This work reviews existing literature on simulation to optimize grocery store layout, uses computer vision techniques to transform a store diagram into a digital representation, and applies simulation methods to approximate which of several layouts proposed by a store designer would result in the highest amount of impulse purchasing. Output analysis methods are used to compare these results to determine whether one design outperforms the others.","PeriodicalId":369368,"journal":{"name":"2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"430 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115933352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sufficient Conditions for a Central Limit Theorem to Assess the Error of Randomized Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods 评价随机拟蒙特卡罗方法误差的一个中心极限定理的充分条件
2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2021-12-12 DOI: 10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715427
Marvin K. Nakayama, B. Tuffin
{"title":"Sufficient Conditions for a Central Limit Theorem to Assess the Error of Randomized Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods","authors":"Marvin K. Nakayama, B. Tuffin","doi":"10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715427","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715427","url":null,"abstract":"Randomized quasi-Monte Carlo (RQMC) can produce an estimator of a mean (i.e., integral) with root-mean-square error that shrinks at a faster rate than (standard) Monte Carlo's. While RQMC is commonly employed to provide a confidence interval (CI) for the mean, this approach implicitly assumes that the RQMC estimator obeys a central limit theorem (CLT), which has not been established for most RQMC settings. To address this, we provide various conditions that ensure an RQMC CLT, as well as an asymptotically valid CI, and examine the tradeoffs in our restrictions. Our sufficient conditions, depending on the regularity of the integrand, often require that the number of randomizations grows sufficiently fast relative to the number of points used from the low-discrepancy sequence.","PeriodicalId":369368,"journal":{"name":"2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115975839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
A New Ethical Principle for Analysts who use Models 使用模型的分析师的新伦理原则
2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2021-12-12 DOI: 10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715331
P. Davis
{"title":"A New Ethical Principle for Analysts who use Models","authors":"P. Davis","doi":"10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715331","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715331","url":null,"abstract":"This paper reviews some existing ethical principles applying to modelers and analysts. It then proposes a new principle motivated by modern advances that allow modeling and analysis to confront uncertainty-even deep uncertainty-and to do so effectively. Given these advances and the high stakes that are often involved, analysts have an obligation to convey more information than has been expected in the past-information to help decisionmakers choose strategies that will hedge as well as feasible against uncertainties. Using dilemmas familiar to analysts, including some that draw on topical events, the paper then discusses challenges involved in following the principle and suggest tactics that can help in doing so.","PeriodicalId":369368,"journal":{"name":"2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116973089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Model Transformation Across Devs and Event Graph Formalisms 跨开发和事件图形式化的模型转换
2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2021-12-12 DOI: 10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715356
Neal DeBuhr, H. Sarjoughian
{"title":"Model Transformation Across Devs and Event Graph Formalisms","authors":"Neal DeBuhr, H. Sarjoughian","doi":"10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715356","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715356","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops a model transformation mechanism across the Discrete Event System Specification (DEVS) and Event Graph (EG) modeling formalisms. We detail this cross-formalism model transformation from methodological and software implementation perspectives. By using simple, well-defined, and automated mechanisms of cross-formalism model transformation, modelers establish a plurality of vantage points, from which to understand and communicate model behavior. Model characteristics may be clarified, emphasized, obfuscated, or hidden across these different vantage points. This paper, therefore, serves as a step toward research into better modeling that can improve soft factors such as model reasoning and collaborative model design for developing better simulations.","PeriodicalId":369368,"journal":{"name":"2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116717771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Data-Driven Two-Stage Stochastic Programming with Marginal Data 具有边缘数据的数据驱动两阶段随机规划
2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2021-12-12 DOI: 10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715339
Ke Ren, H. Bidkhori
{"title":"Data-Driven Two-Stage Stochastic Programming with Marginal Data","authors":"Ke Ren, H. Bidkhori","doi":"10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715339","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715339","url":null,"abstract":"We present new methodologies to solve data-driven two-stage stochastic optimization when only the marginal data are available. We propose a novel data-driven distributionally robust framework that only uses the available marginal data. The proposed model is distinguished from the traditional techniques of solving missing data in that it conducts an integrated analysis of missing data and optimization problems, whereas classical methods conduct separate analyses by first recovering the missing data and then finding the optimal solutions. On the theoretical side, we show that our model produces risk-averse solutions and guarantees finite sample performance. Empirical experiments are conducted on two applications based on synthetic data and real-world data. We validate the proposed finite sample guarantee and show that the proposed approach achieves better out-of-sample performance and higher reliability than the classical data imputation-based approach.","PeriodicalId":369368,"journal":{"name":"2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114414181","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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