A New Ethical Principle for Analysts who use Models

Abstract

This paper reviews some existing ethical principles applying to modelers and analysts. It then proposes a new principle motivated by modern advances that allow modeling and analysis to confront uncertainty-even deep uncertainty-and to do so effectively. Given these advances and the high stakes that are often involved, analysts have an obligation to convey more information than has been expected in the past-information to help decisionmakers choose strategies that will hedge as well as feasible against uncertainties. Using dilemmas familiar to analysts, including some that draw on topical events, the paper then discusses challenges involved in following the principle and suggest tactics that can help in doing so.