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On the Relationships between Wages, Prices, and Economic Activity 论工资、价格和经济活动之间的关系
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2014-08-19 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201414
Edward S. Knotek, Saeed Zaman
{"title":"On the Relationships between Wages, Prices, and Economic Activity","authors":"Edward S. Knotek, Saeed Zaman","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201414","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201414","url":null,"abstract":"We take a closer look at the connections between wages, prices, and economic activity. We find that causal relationships between wages and prices are difficult to identify, and the ability of wages to help predict future inflation is limited. Wages appear to be useful in assessing the current state of labor markets, but they are not necessarily sufficient for thinking about where the economy and inflation are going.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121424090","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 25
Does the CDFI Fund Help Low-Income Borrowers? CDFI基金对低收入借款人有帮助吗?
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2014-07-09 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201413
K. Cortes
{"title":"Does the CDFI Fund Help Low-Income Borrowers?","authors":"K. Cortes","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201413","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201413","url":null,"abstract":"The Treasury Department's CDFI Fund awards grants to community development financial institutions (CDFIs) that operate in low-income areas. Awards are intended to strengthen the institutions and increase the amount they lend to borrowers in those areas. This analysis of proprietary data from the US Treasury shows that when CDFIs receive grant money, they put it to use as additional loans in impoverished and economically weak areas.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133785288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Rising Interest Rate Risk at US Banks 美国银行利率风险上升
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2014-06-24 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201412
William Bednar, Mahmoud Elamin
{"title":"Rising Interest Rate Risk at US Banks","authors":"William Bednar, Mahmoud Elamin","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201412","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201412","url":null,"abstract":"Average interest rate risk in the banking system has been increasing since the end of the financial crisis and is almost back to its pre-recession level. But the increase has not occurred uniformly at large and small banks. At big banks, risk, while increasing, hasn’t yet reached its pre-recession high. It’s in small banks where we see a steep rise in interest rate risk. The big banks’ exposure is being driven mainly by their liabilities. At small banks, it is coming from both their assets and liabilities.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"296 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132514273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 12
New Rules for Credit Default Swap Trading: Can We Now Follow the Risk? 信用违约掉期交易的新规则:我们现在能跟上风险吗?
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2014-06-23 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201411
J. Carlson, M. Jacobson
{"title":"New Rules for Credit Default Swap Trading: Can We Now Follow the Risk?","authors":"J. Carlson, M. Jacobson","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201411","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201411","url":null,"abstract":"Credit default swaps, a useful but complex financial innovation of the 1990s, were traded over the counter before the financial crisis. Because of this infrastructure, a very opaque market emerged, and from it, the severe risk imbalances that helped fuel the crisis. Reforms are now being worked out and put in place which will move the majority of credit default swaps transactions to more transparent exchanges. Market participants will be able to see pre-trade and post-trade pricing, and regulators will have access to information that will allow them to monitor risk concentrations as they develop and take actions before they become of systemic concern.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"31 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114047753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
The Slowdown in Residential Investment and Future Prospects 住宅投资放缓及未来展望
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2014-05-28 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201410
Edward S. Knotek, Saeed Zaman
{"title":"The Slowdown in Residential Investment and Future Prospects","authors":"Edward S. Knotek, Saeed Zaman","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201410","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201410","url":null,"abstract":"Using a statistical model, we find that three factors explain most of the decline in residential investment at the end of 2013 and the beginning of 2014: the increase in mortgage rates since early 2013, the unusually cold winter, and a modest tightening of lending standards in the residential mortgage market. Future prospects for residential investment depend heavily on mortgage rates. A return to normal weather and easing lending standards would boost activity, but even moderate increases in mortgage rates through the end of next year could restrain residential investment going forward.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114410513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Why Do Economists Still Disagree over Government Spending Multipliers 为什么经济学家在政府支出乘数问题上仍存在分歧
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2014-05-08 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201409
Daniel R. Carroll
{"title":"Why Do Economists Still Disagree over Government Spending Multipliers","authors":"Daniel R. Carroll","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201409","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201409","url":null,"abstract":"Public debate about the effects of government spending heated up after record-large stimulus packages were enacted to address the fallout of the fi nancial crisis. Almost as noticeable as the discord was the absence of consensus among prominent economists on the issue. While it seems a simple problem to estimate the effect of government spending on output?the size of the government multiplier?it is anything but.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122978691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Adding Double Inertia to Taylor Rules to Improve Accuracy 增加泰勒规则的双惯性来提高精度
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2014-05-08 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201408
Charles T. Carlstrom, Timothy S. Fuerst
{"title":"Adding Double Inertia to Taylor Rules to Improve Accuracy","authors":"Charles T. Carlstrom, Timothy S. Fuerst","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201408","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201408","url":null,"abstract":"A Taylor rule captures the historical behavior of the federal funds rate better when it also includes a partial-adjustment factor. Typically, the type of partial adjustment added is consistent with the FOMC avoiding large jumps in the level of the funds rate. We add another type of partial adjustment—consistent with the FOMC avoiding changes in the pace of change—and improve the rule’s historical fit.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121144547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Cooperation, Conflict, and the Emergence of a Modern Federal Reserve 合作、冲突和现代美联储的出现
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2014-04-17 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201407
Owen F. Humpage
{"title":"Cooperation, Conflict, and the Emergence of a Modern Federal Reserve","authors":"Owen F. Humpage","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201407","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201407","url":null,"abstract":"The Federal Reserve System is a model of an independent central bank, with the authority to resist political pressure and act in the long-term best economic interest of the country. But this has not always been the case. In the past—and not too distant past at that—US monetary policy has frequently yielded to other governmental requirements. Even for the modern Federal Reserve, independence is a nuanced, mutable and, ultimately, fragile concept, but one that is essential to maintain.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"151 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115989344","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Which Poor Neighborhoods Experienced Income Growth in Recent Decades 近几十年来，哪些贫困社区经历了收入增长
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2014-04-09 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201406
Dionissi Aliprantis, K. Fee, N. Oliver
{"title":"Which Poor Neighborhoods Experienced Income Growth in Recent Decades","authors":"Dionissi Aliprantis, K. Fee, N. Oliver","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201406","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201406","url":null,"abstract":"Why has average income grown in some poor neighborhoods over the past 30 years and not in others? We explore that question and find that low-income neighborhoods that experienced large improvements in income over the past three decades tended to be located in large, densely populated metro areas that grew in income and population. Residential sorting—changes in population and demographics within neighborhoods—could help to explain this relationship","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"300 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121255844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Which Estimates of Metropolitan-Area Jobs Growth Should We Trust? 我们应该相信大都会地区就业增长的哪个估计?
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2014-04-01 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201405
Joel A. Elvery, Christopher Vecchio
{"title":"Which Estimates of Metropolitan-Area Jobs Growth Should We Trust?","authors":"Joel A. Elvery, Christopher Vecchio","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201405","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201405","url":null,"abstract":"The earliest available source of metro-area employment numbers is the initial estimates of State and Metro-Area Employment, Hours, and Earnings (SAE) from the Current Employment Statistics program, but these figures are subject to large revisions. We show how large those revisions are for six metro areas and the four states in the Fourth Federal Reserve District. We also compare the precision of the initial estimates to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which is less timely but more accurate. Our analysis confirms that the best approach for those wanting accurate metro-area employment figures is to use the final, benchmarked SAE or the QCEW.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128398262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
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