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The Overhang of Structures before and since the Great Recession 大衰退前后的结构悬垂
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2014-03-28 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201404
Filippo Occhino, M. Jacobson
{"title":"The Overhang of Structures before and since the Great Recession","authors":"Filippo Occhino, M. Jacobson","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201404","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201404","url":null,"abstract":"Investment in structures is still 29 percent below its pre-recession peak. Using a new indicator of the level of structures that would be warranted by economic conditions, we find evidence that the level of investment was too high in the first half of the 2000s. This overinvestment created an overhang of structures which has held down the growth of investment in structures during the recovery.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"7 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133041555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Estimating the Impact of Fast-Tracking Foreclosures in Ohio and Pennsylvania 评估俄亥俄州和宾夕法尼亚州快速止赎的影响
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2014-03-06 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201403
K. Fee, Thomas J. Fitzpatrick
{"title":"Estimating the Impact of Fast-Tracking Foreclosures in Ohio and Pennsylvania","authors":"K. Fee, Thomas J. Fitzpatrick","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201403","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201403","url":null,"abstract":"All the signs in the housing market seem to be pointing the right way, except the amount of time loans are spending in the foreclosure process. Foreclosure fast-tracks for vacant homes in foreclosure may help reverse that trend.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125452129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Using an Improved Taylor Rule to Predict When Policy Changes Will Occur 使用改进的泰勒规则预测何时会发生政策变化
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2014-03-04 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201402
Charles T. Carlstrom, Saeed Zaman
{"title":"Using an Improved Taylor Rule to Predict When Policy Changes Will Occur","authors":"Charles T. Carlstrom, Saeed Zaman","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201402","url":null,"abstract":"A standard Taylor rule, which expresses the federal funds rate as a function of inflation, the unemployment gap, and the past federal funds rate, tracks the federal funds rate well over time. We improve the fit by adding employment growth. Then we evaluate the effectiveness of that rule in a new way—by how accurately it predicts whether the FOMC moves the fed funds rate at its next meeting. It does pretty well, predicting nearly 70 percent of the time correctly.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127925789","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Do Oil Prices Predict Inflation 油价能预测通胀吗
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2014-02-05 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201401
Mehmet Pasaogullari, Patricia Waiwood
{"title":"Do Oil Prices Predict Inflation","authors":"Mehmet Pasaogullari, Patricia Waiwood","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201401","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201401","url":null,"abstract":"Some analysts pay particular attention to oil prices, thinking they might give an advance signal of changes in inflation. However, using a variety of statistical tests, we find that adding oil prices does little to improve forecasts of CPI inflation. Our results suggest that higher oil prices today do not necessarily signal higher CPI inflation next year, although they do help to explain short-term movements in the CPI.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114577656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
When Might Federal Funds Rate Lift Off 联邦基金利率可能何时上调
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2013-12-04 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201319
Edward S. Knotek, Saeed Zaman
{"title":"When Might Federal Funds Rate Lift Off","authors":"Edward S. Knotek, Saeed Zaman","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201319","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201319","url":null,"abstract":"The Federal Open Market Committee has been providing guidance to help markets anticipate when it will begin raising the federal funds rate target. The most recent guidance suggests that the target will not change at least until after an unemployment or inflation threshold is breached. We use a forecasting model to estimate when these thresholds are likely to be breached. We also consider how an inflation floor would affect the timing of liftoff.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133563089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
The Employability of Returning Citizens Is Key to Neighborhood Revitalization 返乡公民的就业能力是社区振兴的关键
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2013-11-19 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201317
O. Ergungor, N. Oliver
{"title":"The Employability of Returning Citizens Is Key to Neighborhood Revitalization","authors":"O. Ergungor, N. Oliver","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201317","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201317","url":null,"abstract":"One problem low-income communities may face in trying to revitalize is dealing with a high share of residents who are returning home after serving prison terms. Returning citizens often concentrate in low-income areas, and they typically lack the education and skills needed to fi nd jobs. This Commentary reviews these and other barriers to employment, estimates the degree of unemployment, and describes some solutions emerging for this population.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"2014 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121389903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Population Distribution and Educational Attainment within MSAs, 1980-2010 1980-2010年城市经济区域人口分布与受教育程度
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2013-11-19 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201318
K. Fee
{"title":"Population Distribution and Educational Attainment within MSAs, 1980-2010","authors":"K. Fee","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201318","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201318","url":null,"abstract":"Though most people in the US live in metropolitan areas, they’ve been choosing to live farther and farther from the center of those areas since the 1950s. While that trend continues to this day, there are some dramatic changes. The exodus from the center of town is slowing down quite a bit, for one. For another, those residents who now live in the central city are better educated than they used to be.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131342556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Improving Inflation Forecasts in the Medium to Long Term 改善中长期通胀预测
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2013-11-16 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201316
Saeed Zaman
{"title":"Improving Inflation Forecasts in the Medium to Long Term","authors":"Saeed Zaman","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201316","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201316","url":null,"abstract":"To accurately forecast the future rate of inflation, it is imperative to account for inflation’s underlying trend. This is especially important for medium- to long-run forecasts. In this Commentary I demonstrate a simple but powerful technique for incorporating this trend into standard statistical time series models and report the gains to accuracy. I find that incorporating the trend by modeling inflation as gap from an estimated underlying trend leads to substantial gains in forecast accuracy of about 20 percent to 30 percent, two to three years out.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"36 5","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114007194","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 14
Forecasting implications of the recent decline in inflation 预测近期通货膨胀下降的含义
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2013-11-15 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201315
Todd E. Clark, Saeed Zaman
{"title":"Forecasting implications of the recent decline in inflation","authors":"Todd E. Clark, Saeed Zaman","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201315","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201315","url":null,"abstract":"Should the unanticipated slowing of inflation that has occurred since early 2012 raise doubts about the reliability of inflation forecasts? We answer this question by conducting a few exercises with a common macroeconomic forecasting model. Our results indicate that even though inflation turned out to be much lower than forecasted, it still fell well within a normal range of uncertainty, and most of the deviation from the original forecast was a response to other economic developments.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117153745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
The surprising impact of high school math on job market outcomes 高中数学对就业市场结果的惊人影响
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2013-11-01 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201314
Jonathan James
{"title":"The surprising impact of high school math on job market outcomes","authors":"Jonathan James","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201314","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201314","url":null,"abstract":"The economic returns to education are well documented. It is also well-known that college graduates with certain majors will earn more than others and fi nd it easier to land a job. But surprisingly, the courses students take in high school also make a difference, when the courses are mathematics. Even among workers with the same level of education, those with more math have higher wages on average and are less likely to be unemployed. These fi ndings suggest that even students ending their formal education after high school can increase their future earnings by investing in more math courses while in high school.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"182 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121297748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
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