{"title":"The limitations of foreign-exchange intervention: lessons from Switzerland","authors":"Owen F. Humpage","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201313","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201313","url":null,"abstract":"Since the mid-1990s, monetary authorities in most large developed countries have backed away from foreign-exchange intervention—buying and selling foreign currencies to influence exchange rates. Switzerland’s recent experience goes a long way to illustrate why: Foreign-exchange intervention did not afford the Swiss National Bank with a means of systematically affecting the franc independent of Swiss monetary policy, and it left the Bank exposed to foreign-exchange losses. To affect exchange rates, central banks must change their monetary policies.>","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133821372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Are households saving enough for a secure retirement","authors":"LaVaughn M. Henry","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201312","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201312","url":null,"abstract":"The recent rise in the personal saving rate has been interpreted as a sign that consumers are paying down their debt and repairing the damage done to their nest eggs. But a close analysis suggests that many people are falling short of saving what they will need to maintain their standard of living in retirement. A growing body of research in behavioral economics, a branch of economics that studies the choices people make at the individual level, offers explanations for why that is, as well as new approaches to the problem.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114390766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Housing recovery: how far have we come?","authors":"K. Fee, D. Hartley","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201311","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201311","url":null,"abstract":"Four years into the economic recovery, housing markets have finally started to improve. While many indicators of activity indicate recent growth, comparing over time and across the United States suggests that many regional housing markets are looking better now only in comparison to where they were during the recession. The recovery in housing markets does appear to be gaining steam, but it remains a work in progress in many places.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128768818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Why small business lending isn’t what it used to be","authors":"A. Wiersch, S. Shane","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201310","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201310","url":null,"abstract":"Since the Great Recession, bank lending to small businesses has fallen significantly, and policymakers have become concerned that these businesses are not getting the credit they need. Many reasons have been suggested for the decline. Our analysis shows that it has multiple sources, which means that trying to address any single factor may be ineffective or make matters worse. Any intervention should take all of the many causes of the decline in small business lending into consideration.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121342578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yuliya Demyanyk, Dmytro Hryshko, María J. Luengo‐Prado, Bent E. Sørensen
{"title":"Keeping the house or moving for a job","authors":"Yuliya Demyanyk, Dmytro Hryshko, María J. Luengo‐Prado, Bent E. Sørensen","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201309","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201309","url":null,"abstract":"Some reports have suggested that employers can’t fill job openings in some places because they can’t entice workers to move. Workers won’t move, so the story goes, when doing so will mean losing money on their homes, and this is the case for many homeowners since the housing crash. But new research shows that homeowners will move when they have a better job offer, even if they will lose money on their home when they sell it.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128178391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Monetary policy tightening and long-term interest rates","authors":"Pedro S. Amaral","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201308","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201308","url":null,"abstract":"The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained an accommodative monetary policy ever since the 2007 recession, and some financial market participants are concerned that long-term interest rates may increase more than should be expected when the Committee starts to tighten. But a look at five historical episodes of monetary policy tightening suggests that such an outcome is more likely when markets are surprised by policy actions or economic developments. Given the Fed’s new policy tools, especially its evolution toward more transparent communications, the odds of a surprise are far less likely now.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"96 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114732392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"What constitutes substantial employment gains in today’s labor market?","authors":"M. Schweitzer, Murat Tasci","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201307","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201307","url":null,"abstract":"The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has tied its asset purchases to a \"substantial improvement\" in labor market conditions. While we don't speculate on what the FOMC means by substantial improvement, we do explore the level of monthly job gains that would gradually deliver the underlying trend unemployment rate within a reasonable timeframe, under several plausible scenarios. We find that the path of monthly job gains, which is highly dependent on a few key parameters, is likely to be smaller than the path associated with previous recoveries.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126991821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Urban Decline in Rust-Belt Cities","authors":"D. Hartley","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201306","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201306","url":null,"abstract":"Many Rust-Belt cities have seen almost half their populations move from inside the city borders to the surrounding suburbs and elsewhere since the 1970s. As populations shifted, neighborhoods changed—in their average income, educational profile, and housing prices. But the shift did not happen in every neighborhood at the same rate. Recent research has uncovered some of the patterns characterizing the process.>","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128645471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Why are interest rates so low","authors":"Joseph G. Haubrich","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201304","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201304","url":null,"abstract":"Interest rates have been at historical lows for some time now. There are many possible reasons why that is so. We make use of recent work done at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland that allows us to look at individual components of interest rates and see which are exerting the biggest influence. Knowing why rates are where they are now helps to predict where interest rates will likely be in the near future.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125516593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Forecasting Inflation? Target the Middle","authors":"Brent H. Meyer, Guhan Venkatu, Saeed Zaman","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201305","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201305","url":null,"abstract":"The Median CPI is well-known as an accurate predictor of future infl ation. But it’s just one of many possible trimmed-mean inflation measures. Recent research compares these types of measures to see which tracks future inflation best. Not only does the Median CPI outperform other trims in predicting CPI inflation, it also does a better job of predicting PCE inflation, the FOMC’s preferred measure, than the core PCE.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128399804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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