预测通货膨胀?以中产阶级为目标

Economic commentary Pub Date : 2013-04-11 DOI:10.26509/FRBC-EC-201305

Brent H. Meyer, Guhan Venkatu, Saeed Zaman

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引用次数: 16

摘要

众所周知，CPI中位数是未来通胀的准确预测指标。但这只是众多可能的平均通胀指标之一。最近的研究比较了这两种指标，看看哪一种最能追踪未来的通胀。CPI中值不仅在预测CPI通胀方面优于其他调整，而且在预测个人消费支出通胀方面也优于核心个人消费支出。个人消费支出是联邦公开市场委员会偏爱的指标。

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Forecasting Inflation? Target the Middle

The Median CPI is well-known as an accurate predictor of future infl ation. But it’s just one of many possible trimmed-mean inflation measures. Recent research compares these types of measures to see which tracks future inflation best. Not only does the Median CPI outperform other trims in predicting CPI inflation, it also does a better job of predicting PCE inflation, the FOMC’s preferred measure, than the core PCE.

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Economic commentary

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