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Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2020 Conference Summary 通货膨胀:驱动因素与动态2020年会议总结
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2021-02-24 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-202102
Edward S. Knotek, Robert W. Rich, Raphael S. Schoenle, P. Andrade, Marco Del Negro, Colin J. Hottman, Christian Höynck, Matthius Meier, G. Ricco, Elisa Rubbo, D. Villar, Michael Weber
{"title":"Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2020 Conference Summary","authors":"Edward S. Knotek, Robert W. Rich, Raphael S. Schoenle, P. Andrade, Marco Del Negro, Colin J. Hottman, Christian Höynck, Matthius Meier, G. Ricco, Elisa Rubbo, D. Villar, Michael Weber","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-202102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-202102","url":null,"abstract":"To provide insights into the processes that drive inflationary dynamics, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland holds an annual conference on the topic of inflation: the Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics series. The 2020 installment of the conference was held on May 21-22, 2020. This Commentary summarizes the papers at the conference, which broadly fell into four categories: (1) empirical Phillips curves, (2) networks and Phillips curves, (3) expectations formation, and (4) price-setting behavior and inflation.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"82 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122947130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2020 CEBRA Annual Meeting Session Summary 通货膨胀:驱动因素和动力2020年CEBRA年会总结
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2021-02-24 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-202103
Edward S. Knotek, Robert W. Rich, Raphael S. Schoenle, M. Lamla, E. Moench, Michael Weber
{"title":"Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2020 CEBRA Annual Meeting Session Summary","authors":"Edward S. Knotek, Robert W. Rich, Raphael S. Schoenle, M. Lamla, E. Moench, Michael Weber","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-202103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-202103","url":null,"abstract":"The Cleveland Fed’s Center for Inflation Research sponsored a session on inflation dynamics at the 2020 CEBRA annual meeting. The presentations focused on inflation expectations and firms’ price-setting behavior. This Economic Commentary summarizes the papers presented during the session.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"41 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132625031","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessing Layoffs in Four Midwestern States during the Pandemic Recession 在大流行经济衰退期间评估中西部四个州的裁员情况
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2020-08-05 DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202021
Rubén Hernández-Murillo, Pawel M. Krolikowski
{"title":"Assessing Layoffs in Four Midwestern States during the Pandemic Recession","authors":"Rubén Hernández-Murillo, Pawel M. Krolikowski","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-202021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202021","url":null,"abstract":"We use WARN data to assess layoffs in four Midwestern states during the current pandemic-induced recession—Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. The data come from the advance layoff notices filed under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act. We find that the number of workers affected by layoff announcements rose sharply in the second half of March and April, and unexpected changes in economic conditions meant that workers received little advance notice before layoff. Layoff announcements have affected workers across these four states, and workers in mining and leisure and hospitality have been affected the most. Most recently, the number of workers affected by WARN notices has almost returned to prerecession levels.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"70 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121590099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics | 2019 CEBRA Annual Meeting Session Summary 通货膨胀:驱动因素与动力| 2019 CEBRA年会总结
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2020-06-25 DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202014
Timo Haber, Edward S. Knotek, Jean-Paul L’Huillier, Julio L. Ortiz, D. Pfajfar, Robert W. Rich, Raphael S. Schoenle
{"title":"Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics | 2019 CEBRA Annual Meeting Session Summary","authors":"Timo Haber, Edward S. Knotek, Jean-Paul L’Huillier, Julio L. Ortiz, D. Pfajfar, Robert W. Rich, Raphael S. Schoenle","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-202014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202014","url":null,"abstract":"The relationship between the Phillips curve and inflation has become weaker over time, producing questions regarding how policymakers might connect inflation to the rest of the economy. Presentations given during the “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics” session of the Central Bank Research Association’s annual meeting focused on the intersection of monetary policy and inflation dynamics to examine the ways in which policy might impact inflation and related expectations and processes. This Economic Commentary summarizes the papers presented during this session.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134159636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Lessons on the Economics of Pandemics from Recent Research 从最近的研究中得出的关于流行病经济学的教训
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2020-05-28 DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202011
Sewon Hur, M. Jenuwine
{"title":"Lessons on the Economics of Pandemics from Recent Research","authors":"Sewon Hur, M. Jenuwine","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-202011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202011","url":null,"abstract":"The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a dual public health and economic crisis. Many economic studies in the past few months have explored the relationship between the spread of disease and economic activity, the role for government intervention in the crisis, and the effectiveness of testing and containment policies. This Commentary summarizes the methods and findings of a number of these studies. The economic research conducted to date shows that adequate testing and selective containment measures can be effective in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, and in the absence of adequate testing capabilities, optimal interventions involve social distancing and other lockdown measures.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"400 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121802421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
The CPI–PCEPI Inflation Differential: Causes and Prospects cpi - pcpi通胀差异:原因与前景
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2020-03-02 DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202006
Wesley Janson, Randal J. Verbrugge, C. Binder
{"title":"The CPI–PCEPI Inflation Differential: Causes and Prospects","authors":"Wesley Janson, Randal J. Verbrugge, C. Binder","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-202006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202006","url":null,"abstract":"The Federal Open Market Committee’s inflation target is stated in terms of the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI). The PCEPI, like the consumer price index (CPI), measures inflation in the expenditures of households, but these indexes differ in purpose, scope, and construction. Notably, since the CPI is used as the reference rate for numerous financial contracts, one can derive implied longer-run CPI inflation forecasts from financial contracts. Such forecasts are widely reported. But if policymakers are to use these forecasts to guide their pursuit of the inflation target, they need to translate these CPI inflation forecasts into corresponding implied PCEPI forecasts. Since 1978, CPI inflation has averaged 0.3 percentage points above PCEPI inflation, but this differential has varied significantly over time. In this Commentary, we explain why, investigate a key historical episode, and provide an updated estimate of the likely differential going forward.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116514705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Revisiting Wage Growth after the Recession 回顾衰退后的工资增长
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2020-01-31 DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202002
Roberto B. Pinheiro, Meifeng Yang
{"title":"Revisiting Wage Growth after the Recession","authors":"Roberto B. Pinheiro, Meifeng Yang","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-202002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202002","url":null,"abstract":"In this Commentary, we show that realized wage growth since 2015 has mostly been at a rate that would be expected given observed rates of inflation and labor productivity growth. Moreover, labor productivity growth has been in line with its potential over the same period. This picture of the post-recession recovery of wages is very different from the one we observed in an earlier analysis, when all we had were data up through the end of 2015. The reasons underlying the difference are large revisions in labor productivity data and upticks in the inflation rate and labor productivity growth since our last report.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130365551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
A Forecasting Assessment of Market-Based PCE Inflation 基于市场的个人消费支出通胀预测评估
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2020-01-14 DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202001
Mark Bognanni
{"title":"A Forecasting Assessment of Market-Based PCE Inflation","authors":"Mark Bognanni","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-202001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202001","url":null,"abstract":"This article explores the potential for market-based inflation measures to improve inflation forecasting. To do so, I compare the pseudo-real time forecasting performance of a suite of models for forecasting total or “headline” PCE inflation over the short and medium run. In the forecasting exercise, a simple model using only market-based core PCE inflation showed the best forecasting performance at all horizons.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"160 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115264965","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2019 Conference Summary 通货膨胀:驱动因素与动态2019年会议总结
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2019-12-19 DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-201922
Andrés Blanco, Mina M. Kim, Edward S. Knotek, Matthias O. Paustian, Robert W. Rich, Jane M. Ryngaert, Raphael S. Schoenle, J. Tielens, H. Weber, Michael Weber, Mirko Wiederholt, Tony Zhang
{"title":"Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2019 Conference Summary","authors":"Andrés Blanco, Mina M. Kim, Edward S. Knotek, Matthias O. Paustian, Robert W. Rich, Jane M. Ryngaert, Raphael S. Schoenle, J. Tielens, H. Weber, Michael Weber, Mirko Wiederholt, Tony Zhang","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-201922","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-201922","url":null,"abstract":"To provide insights into the processes that drive inflationary dynamics, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland holds an annual conference on the topic of inflation: “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics.” This Commentary summarizes the papers presented at the 2019 conference.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"65 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133263930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Are the New Basel III Capital Buffers Countercyclical? Exploring the Option of a Rule-Based Countercyclical Buffer 新巴塞尔协议III资本缓冲是反周期的吗?探索基于规则的反周期缓冲器的选择
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2018-04-03 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201803
Filippo Occhino
{"title":"Are the New Basel III Capital Buffers Countercyclical? Exploring the Option of a Rule-Based Countercyclical Buffer","authors":"Filippo Occhino","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201803","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201803","url":null,"abstract":"Countercyclical capital regulation can reduce the procyclicality of the banking system and dampen aggregate economic fluctuations. I describe two new capital buffers introduced in Basel III and discuss why their countercyclical effects may be small. If over time regulators want to increase the degree of countercyclicality of capital regulation, they might consider adopting a rule-based countercyclical buffer, that is, a buffer that is automatically lowered during recessions according to a rule. I present a conservative example of such a rule and its effects on capital requirements over the business cycle.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121222510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
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