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Labor Market Tightness across the United States since the Great Recession 自经济大衰退以来，美国各地的劳动力市场紧缩
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2018-01-16 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201801
Murat Tasci, Caitlin Treanor
{"title":"Labor Market Tightness across the United States since the Great Recession","authors":"Murat Tasci, Caitlin Treanor","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201801","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201801","url":null,"abstract":"Though labor market statistics are often reported and discussed at the national level, conditions can vary quite a bit across individual states. We explore differences in these conditions before and after the Great Recession using a ratio of the number of unemployed workers to job vacancies. We show that the intensity of the adverse effects of the recession and the strength of the recovery varied geographically at all points in the process. We also demonstrate that wage growth is delayed until the ratio of unemployed workers to job vacancies returns to prerecession levels.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128686941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Have Inflation Dynamics Changed 通货膨胀是否发生了变化?
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2017-11-28 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201721
Edward S. Knotek, Saeed Zaman
{"title":"Have Inflation Dynamics Changed","authors":"Edward S. Knotek, Saeed Zaman","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201721","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201721","url":null,"abstract":"Using a flexible statistical model to project inflation outcomes into the future, this Commentary finds that the most likely path for inflation based on recent inflation dynamics is generally similar to what would have been expected given inflation dynamics in the late 1990s, but there is more uncertainty around the forecast now than in the late 1990s.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"87 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121156870","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Do Foreign-Born Workers Cause Native-Born Workers to Move or Leave the Labor Force? 外国出生的工人会导致本土出生的工人迁移或离开劳动力市场吗?
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2017-11-15 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-2017019
Roberto B. Pinheiro, A. Dizioli
{"title":"Do Foreign-Born Workers Cause Native-Born Workers to Move or Leave the Labor Force?","authors":"Roberto B. Pinheiro, A. Dizioli","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-2017019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-2017019","url":null,"abstract":"This Commentary discusses how the presence of foreign-born workers in a local labor market affects the decisions of native-born workers to leave the labor force or move to another state. We analyze short panels obtained through the Current Population Survey and find that, in the short run, less-educated native-born workers react to a larger stock of foreign-born workers by either moving to a different state or dropping out of the labor force. In terms of magnitude, the effect is small but not insignificant.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"130 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121580419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Productivity Growth and Real Interest Rates in the Long Run 生产率增长和长期实际利率
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2017-11-15 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201720
Kurt G. Lunsford
{"title":"Productivity Growth and Real Interest Rates in the Long Run","authors":"Kurt G. Lunsford","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201720","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201720","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the unemployment rate's return to low levels, inflation-adjusted or \"real\" interest rates have remained negative. One popular explanation for persistently negative real interest rates is that long-run productivity growth has slowed. I study the long-run relationship between real interest rates and productivity growth from 1914 to 2016 and find a negative correlation between these two variables. Hence, low productivity growth has been historically associated with high real interest rates. Since World War II, the correlation between these variables has been near zero. This suggests that slow long-run productivity growth is not driving real interest rates to be persistently negative.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121662244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
The 1970s Origins of Too Big to Fail 20世纪70年代“大而不倒”的起源
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2017-10-18 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201717
George Nurisso, E. Prescott
{"title":"The 1970s Origins of Too Big to Fail","authors":"George Nurisso, E. Prescott","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201717","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201717","url":null,"abstract":"In 1972, bank regulators bailed out the $1.2 billion Bank of the Commonwealth partly because they viewed it as \u0000“too big to fail.” We describe this bailout and subsequent ones through that of Continental Illinois in 1984 and use the descriptions to draw lessons about too-big-to-fail policy. We argue that some of the same issues that motivated bailouts during this earlier period, particularly worries about banking concentration, are relevant today.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126520660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
When States Default: Lessons from Law and History 当国家违约:法律和历史的教训
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2017-10-12 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-2017016
O. Ergungor
{"title":"When States Default: Lessons from Law and History","authors":"O. Ergungor","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-2017016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-2017016","url":null,"abstract":"This Commentary discusses how a severe fiscal crisis at the state level could impact the interests of the state’s public pension holders. Drawing lessons from the relevant laws, historical precedents, and the case of Arkansas after its default in 1933, I argue that in spite of the protections that exist, no public retirement system is completely immune to\u0000impairment if the money runs out.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"88 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116474404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The Opioid Epidemic and the Labor Market 阿片类药物流行与劳动力市场
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2017-09-29 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201715
Dionissi Aliprantis, Anne Chen
{"title":"The Opioid Epidemic and the Labor Market","authors":"Dionissi Aliprantis, Anne Chen","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201715","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201715","url":null,"abstract":"Drug overdoses now account for more deaths in the United States than traffic deaths or suicides, and most of the increase in overdose deaths since 2010 can be attributed to opioids--a class of drugs that includes both prescription pain relievers and illegal narcotics. We look at trends in drug use and overdose deaths to document how the opioid epidemic has evolved over time and to determine whether it could be large enough to impact the labor force.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123611914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
What’s Gone Wrong (and Right) in the Industrial Heartland? 工业中心哪里错了(和对了)?
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2017-09-22 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201714
M. Schweitzer
{"title":"What’s Gone Wrong (and Right) in the Industrial Heartland?","authors":"M. Schweitzer","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201714","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201714","url":null,"abstract":"The historically Midwestern manufacturing region, sometimes referred to as the “Rust Belt,” faced another challenging period after 2000 when manufacturing employment declined by 1.2 million jobs. This Commentary investigates the relative economic performance of this region versus other US metropolitan areas during and following these job losses. The analysis shows that while unemployment rates have recovered in the metro areas of the industrial heartland, other economic indicators lag behind the manufacturing-intensive metro areas outside of the region.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129048260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sizing Up Systemic Risk 评估系统性风险
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2017-08-23 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201713
Joseph G. Haubrich, Charlotte DeKoning
{"title":"Sizing Up Systemic Risk","authors":"Joseph G. Haubrich, Charlotte DeKoning","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201713","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201713","url":null,"abstract":"Regulators now use a framework for identifying systemically important banking institutions that is based on five broad measures of bank structure. Though size is only one of these equally weighted measures, it seems to be the focus of most attention. This Commentary explores whether the other measures contribute unique information or whether size is all one needs to identify all the institutions whose failure could bring down the financial system.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130691196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Warehousing: A Historical Lesson in Central Bank Independence 仓储:中央银行独立性的历史教训
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2017-08-11 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201712
Owen F. Humpage
{"title":"Warehousing: A Historical Lesson in Central Bank Independence","authors":"Owen F. Humpage","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201712","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201712","url":null,"abstract":"This Economic Commentary explains how warehousing—a seemingly innocuous institutional arrangement between the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury—came to threaten the Fed’s independence. Warehousing began as an arcane procedure designed to help the Treasury cover a specific type of foreign-exchange exposure. It then grew into a supplemental source of funding for the Treasury's foreign-exchange interventions. Eventually the procedure morphed into a sizeable off-budget source of funding for other Treasury activities and seemed an inappropriate subversion of the congressional appropriations process, a development that raised concerns within the Fed about its ability to conduct monetary policy free from political concerns.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128206494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
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