{"title":"Identification of Non-Equilibrium Beliefs in Games of Incomplete Information Using Experimental Data","authors":"Victor Aguirregabiria, Erhao Xie","doi":"10.1515/jem-2019-0029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jem-2019-0029","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper studies the identification of players’ preferences and beliefs in discrete choice games using experimental data. The experiment comprises a set of games that differ in their matrices of monetary payoffs. The researcher is interested in the identification of preferences (utility of money) and beliefs on the opponents’ expected behavior, without imposing equilibrium restrictions or parametric assumptions on utility and belief functions. We show that the hypothesis of unbiased/rational beliefs is testable as long as the set of games in the experiment imply variation in monetary payoffs of other players, keeping the own monetary payoff constant. We present conditions for the full identification of utility and belief functions at the individual level – without restrictions on players’ heterogeneity in preferences or beliefs. We apply our method to data from two experiments: a matching pennies game, and a public good game.","PeriodicalId":36727,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometric Methods","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/jem-2019-0029","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41469431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Entropy Balancing for Continuous Treatments","authors":"Stefan Tübbicke","doi":"10.25932/PUBLISHUP-47895","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25932/PUBLISHUP-47895","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Interest in evaluating the effects of continuous treatments has been on the rise recently. To facilitate the estimation of causal effects in this setting, the present paper introduces entropy balancing for continuous treatments (EBCT) – an intuitive and user-friendly automated covariate balancing scheme – by extending the original entropy balancing methodology of Hainmueller, J. 2012. “Entropy Balancing for Causal Effects: A Multivariate Reweighting Method to Produce Balanced Samples in Observational Studies.” Political Analysis 20 (1): 25–46. In order to estimate balancing weights, the proposed approach solves a globally convex constrained optimization problem, allowing for computationally efficient software implementation. EBCT weights reliably eradicate Pearson correlations between covariates (and their transformations) and the continuous treatment variable. As uncorrelatedness may not be sufficient to guarantee consistent estimates of dose–response functions, EBCT also allows to render higher moments of the treatment variable uncorrelated with covariates to mitigate this issue. Empirical Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that treatment effect estimates using EBCT display favorable properties in terms of bias and root mean squared error, especially when balance on higher moments of the treatment variable is sought. These properties make EBCT an attractive method for the evaluation of continuous treatments. Software implementation is available for Stata and R.","PeriodicalId":36727,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometric Methods","volume":"11 1","pages":"71 - 89"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44146659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Regression-Based Causal Analysis from the Potential Outcomes Perspective.","authors":"Joseph V Terza","doi":"10.1515/jem-2018-0030","DOIUrl":"10.1515/jem-2018-0030","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Most empirical economic research is conducted with the goal of providing scientific evidence that will be informative in assessing causal relationships of interest based on relevant counterfactuals. The implementation of regression methods in this context is ubiquitous. With this as motivation, we detail a comprehensive regression-based potential outcomes framework for causal modeling, estimation and inference. This framework facilitates rigorous specification of the effect parameter of interest and makes clear the sense in which it is causally interpretable, when appropriately defined in a potential outcomes setting. It also serves to crystallize the conditions under which the effect parameter and the underlying regression parameters are identified. The consistent sample analog estimator of the effect parameter is discussed. Juxtaposing this framework with a stylized version of a commonly implemented and routinely applied modeling and estimation protocol reveals how the latter is deficient in recognizing, and fully accounting for, conditions required for identification of the relevant effect parameter and the causal interpretability of estimation results. In the context of an example, we demonstrate the conceptual advantages of this general potential outcomes framework for regression modeling by showing how it resolves fundamental shortcomings in the conventional approach to characterizing and remedying omitted variable bias.</p>","PeriodicalId":36727,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometric Methods","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7051001/pdf/nihms-1048487.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"37697420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Measuring Benchmark Damages in Antitrust Litigation: Extensions and Practical Implications","authors":"Ai Deng","doi":"10.1515/jem-2019-0010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jem-2019-0010","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper compares the “forecasting approach” and the “fully interacted approach” to estimation of cartel damages. We investigate the impact of relaxing the assumptions of exogeneity and stationarity, both theoretically and in Monte Carlo simulations. The results suggest that the advantages of the fully interacted approach are less clear and that the forecasting approach may be more robust to the relaxations of some of these maintained assumptions.","PeriodicalId":36727,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometric Methods","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/jem-2019-0010","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48866463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Instrumental Variables Estimation in Large Heterogeneous Panels with Multifactor Structure","authors":"G. Forchini, Bin Jiang, B. Peng","doi":"10.1515/jem-2018-0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jem-2018-0003","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The paper proposes new instrumental variables estimators for the slope parameters of a panel data model with classical endogeneity in which all the observables – including the instruments – may have a common factors structure. These estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal under weak regularity conditions. A small Monte Carlo simulation shows that these estimators compare favourably to existing estimators.","PeriodicalId":36727,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometric Methods","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/jem-2018-0003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42296897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Gabriel Montes-Rojas, W. Sosa-Escudero, Federico Zincenko
{"title":"Level-Based Estimation of Dynamic Panel Models","authors":"Gabriel Montes-Rojas, W. Sosa-Escudero, Federico Zincenko","doi":"10.1515/jem-2018-0015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jem-2018-0015","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper develops an alternative estimator for linear dynamic panel data models based on parameterizing the covariances between covariates and unobserved time-invariant effects. A GMM framework is used to derive an optimal estimator based on moment conditions in levels, with no efficiency loss compared to the classic alternatives like (Arellano, M., and S. Bond. 1991. “Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations.” Review of Economic Studies 58 (2): 277–297), (Ahn, S. C., and P. Schmidt. 1995. “Efficient Estimation of Models for Dynamic Panel Data.” Journal of Econometrics 68 (1): 5–27) and (Ahn, S. C., and P. Schmidt. 1997. “Efficient Estimation of Dynamic Panel Data Models: Alternative Assumptions and Simplified Estimation.” Journal of Econometrics 76: 309–321). Still, we show analytically and by Monte Carlo simulations that the new procedure leads to efficiency improvements for certain data generating processes. The framework also leads to a very simple test for unobserved effects.","PeriodicalId":36727,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometric Methods","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/jem-2018-0015","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42395620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An Empirical Undergraduate Introduction to Estimating Consumer Preferences Using Ride Choices at Disneyland","authors":"J. Jonathan","doi":"10.1515/JEM-2018-0026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/JEM-2018-0026","url":null,"abstract":"This paper describes a simple and interesting method to introduce and teach undergraduate students about preference estimation using random utility models. The example centers around estimating preferences over rides at Disneyland theme parks and uses actual stated-preference survey data. The lesson is designed to be self-contained in a single 90 minute lecture. Given the strong background that many undergraduate economic students have with consumer choice theory, introducing preference estimation as a real-world application into econometrics curriculum can be an enriching experience.","PeriodicalId":36727,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometric Methods","volume":"9 1","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/JEM-2018-0026","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66939410","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Anil K. Bera, Yannis Bilias, M. Yoon, Suleyman Taspinar, Osman Doğan
{"title":"Adjustments of Rao’s Score Test for Distributional and Local Parametric Misspecifications","authors":"Anil K. Bera, Yannis Bilias, M. Yoon, Suleyman Taspinar, Osman Doğan","doi":"10.1515/jem-2017-0022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jem-2017-0022","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Rao’s (1948) seminal paper introduced a fundamental principle of testing based on the score function and the score test has local optimal properties. When the assumed model is misspecified, it is well known that Rao’s score (RS) test loses its optimality. A model could be misspecified in a variety of ways. In this paper, we consider two kinds: distributional and parametric. In the former case, the assumed probability density function differs from the data generating process. Kent (1982) and White (1982) analyzed this case and suggested a modified version of the RS test that involves adjustment of the variance. In the latter case, the dimension of the parameter space of the assumed model does not match with that of the true one. Using the distribution of the RS test under this situation, Bera and Yoon (1993) developed a modified RS test that is valid under the local parametric misspecification. This involves adjusting both the mean and variance of the standard RS test. This paper considers the joint presence of the distributional and parametric misspecifications and develops a modified RS test that is valid under both types of misspecification. Earlier modified tests under either type of misspecification can be obtained as the special cases of the proposed test. We provide three examples to illustrate the usefulness of the suggested test procedure. In a Monte Carlo study, we demonstrate that the modified test statistics have good finite sample properties.","PeriodicalId":36727,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometric Methods","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/jem-2017-0022","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45943182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Misspecified Discrete Choice Models and Huber-White Standard Errors","authors":"G. Michael","doi":"10.1515/JEM-2016-0002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/JEM-2016-0002","url":null,"abstract":"I analyze properties of misspecified discrete choice models and the efficacy of Huber-White (sometimes called ‘robust’) standard errors. The Huber-White correction provides asymptotically correct standard errors for a consistent estimator from a misspecified model. There is little justification for using Huber-White standard errors in discrete choice models since misspecification usually leads to inconsistent estimators. I derive necessary and sufficient conditions for consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator of any potentially misspecified random utility model (e.g. conditional logit). I also derive (easily satisfied) sufficient conditions for consistent estimation of the sign of the data generating parameter. It follows the researcher can consistently test the sign (or nullity) of the parameter from the data generating process using the (possibly) misspecified conditional logit. I investigate small sample properties of the Huber-White estimator via a simulation study and find the correction provides little to no improvement for inferences.","PeriodicalId":36727,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometric Methods","volume":"8 1","pages":"1-17"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/JEM-2016-0002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66939312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Local Average and Quantile Treatment Effects Under Endogeneity: A Review","authors":"M. Huber, Kaspar Wüthrich","doi":"10.1515/JEM-2017-0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/JEM-2017-0007","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper provides a review of methodological advancements in the evaluation of heterogeneous treatment effect models based on instrumental variable (IV) methods. We focus on models that achieve identification by assuming monotonicity of the treatment in the IV and analyze local average and quantile treatment effects for the subpopulation of compliers. We start with a comprehensive discussion of the binary treatment and binary IV case as for instance relevant in randomized experiments with imperfect compliance. We then review extensions to identification and estimation with covariates, multi-valued and multiple treatments and instruments, outcome attrition and measurement error, and the identification of direct and indirect treatment effects, among others. We also discuss testable implications and possible relaxations of the IV assumptions, approaches to extrapolate from local to global treatment effects, and the relationship to other IV approaches.","PeriodicalId":36727,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometric Methods","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/JEM-2017-0007","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43447388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}