Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives最新文献

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The influence of spatial and social context on cyclists’ anticipatory yielding behavior 空间和社会环境对骑行者预期屈服行为的影响
IF 4.8
Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-07-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.trip.2026.102132
Floor Bontje, Bas Spierings, Roland Geraerts, Taoufik Bakri, Leendert van Maanen, Christian P. Janssen
{"title":"The influence of spatial and social context on cyclists’ anticipatory yielding behavior","authors":"Floor Bontje,&nbsp;Bas Spierings,&nbsp;Roland Geraerts,&nbsp;Taoufik Bakri,&nbsp;Leendert van Maanen,&nbsp;Christian P. Janssen","doi":"10.1016/j.trip.2026.102132","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trip.2026.102132","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how cyclists’ anticipatory yielding behavior is influenced by spatial and social contexts. While previous research has shown that cyclists’ yielding behavior is shaped by environmental context, a controlled study isolating the effects of specific spatial and social factors would be a valuable addition. Two controlled video simulation experiments were conducted (total N = 67), in which participants viewed traffic scenarios from a cyclist’s perspective. In each video, a pedestrian crossed, and participants indicated their intended anticipatory behavior in the presented scenario by pressing Continue or Brake. The experiments manipulated kinematics (time-to-arrival and distance gap), pedestrian density, and presence or absence of a dedicated cycling lane. Participants selected braking less often and responded more slowly in low pedestrian-density environments and when a dedicated cycling lane was present. Greater time-to-arrival and distance gaps to the pedestrian (i.e., kinematics) were also associated with fewer selected braking responses and increased response times. Pedestrian density had a stronger influence in shared spaces, while time gap effects weakened under low-density conditions. Together, these findings suggest that participants’ reported yielding responses are influenced by spatial (dedicated cycling lane, kinematics) and social factors (pedestrian density). Implications for infrastructure design are discussed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36621,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 102132"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148477134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Pedestrian and cyclist safety in the context of micromobility on the shared-use paths 共享路径微交通环境下行人和骑自行车者的安全
IF 4.8
Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.trip.2026.102116
Eva Kvašňovská, Lucie Vyskočilová, Zbyněk Janoška, Jiří Ambros, Zbyněk Mikolajek, Radim Striegler
{"title":"Pedestrian and cyclist safety in the context of micromobility on the shared-use paths","authors":"Eva Kvašňovská,&nbsp;Lucie Vyskočilová,&nbsp;Zbyněk Janoška,&nbsp;Jiří Ambros,&nbsp;Zbyněk Mikolajek,&nbsp;Radim Striegler","doi":"10.1016/j.trip.2026.102116","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trip.2026.102116","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A shared-use path is a route used by pedestrians, cyclists, and others with small non-motor vehicles. Across countries, different attitudes and preferences toward shared-use paths lead to varying challenges, with the main problem being limiting conflicts. In the Czech Republic, shared-use paths are increasingly used by e-bikes and scooters. Higher speeds and traffic volumes on shared-use paths have increased the number and severity of injuries. This research was set out to investigate the impact of measurable parameters on conflict prediction. Locations on 10 different shared-use paths were chosen, and 40 h of bird’s-eye video footage were recorded, analysed using the YOLO algorithm for detection of shared-use path users, and tracking their routes using the BoT-SORT algorithm. For all trajectories, lengths, average speeds, direction of motion, and time were calculated, along with mutual interactions. For every location, path width was measured, and conflicts and potential conflicts were evaluated. Volumes were processed into 15-minute intervals, and baseline characteristics were calculated. Machine Learning methods were used to analyse the dataset and visualise the results to better understand the conflict prediction model. The results confirm that higher traffic volumes increase the proportion of conflicts, while greater path width helps mitigate these risks. Conflicts are more likely with a higher proportion of cyclists and at lower speeds and higher volumes, suggesting congestion is a contributing factor. These findings underscore the importance of well-designed infrastructure, particularly wider paths, in enhancing safety and fostering harmonious coexistence among diverse user groups on shared-use facilities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36621,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 102116"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148476689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Transit-oriented development as a catalyst for urban economic growth: evidence from the Chaoyang district of Beijing 以交通为导向的发展作为城市经济增长的催化剂:来自北京朝阳区的证据
IF 4.8
Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.trip.2026.102110
Rasheed Rabia, Hongguang Ma
{"title":"Transit-oriented development as a catalyst for urban economic growth: evidence from the Chaoyang district of Beijing","authors":"Rasheed Rabia,&nbsp;Hongguang Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.trip.2026.102110","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trip.2026.102110","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the perceived economic impacts of transit-oriented development (TOD) in the Chaoyang District of Beijing by focusing on three critical outcomes: property value (PV), business growth (BG), and employment opportunities (EO). Despite extensive policy support for TOD, empirical evidence capturing how local economic actors perceive its economic impacts remains limited, particularly in rapidly urbanizing cities in developing contexts. This study investigates how small business owners perceive the influence of key TOD characteristics on local perceived economic outcomes. Using survey data from 2,346 respondents, six TOD dimensions accessibility, density, land-use mix, walkability, service quality, and proximity to transit stations were examined using a Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) framework. The results indicate that all TOD dimensions are positively associated, in the perception of respondents, with PV, BG, and EO. Among these factors, density shows the strongest association with perceived PV, while accessibility and proximity to transit demonstrate comparatively stronger links with perceived EO and BG. Overall, the findings suggest that TOD characteristics are consistently associated with favorable economic perceptions among local business actors. By adopting a perception-based analytical approach, this study contributes theoretically by extending TOD research beyond objective indicators and practically by offering policy-relevant insights into how TOD benefits are interpreted in high-density urban settings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36621,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 102110"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148476606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
‘Maritime regulations crossroads: bridging IMO’s CII and EU ETS through the EUA efficiency indicator’ “海事法规十字路口:通过EUA效率指标架起IMO CII和EU ETS的桥梁”
IF 4.8
Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.trip.2026.102126
Anastasia Christodoulou, Jason Kontochristos
{"title":"‘Maritime regulations crossroads: bridging IMO’s CII and EU ETS through the EUA efficiency indicator’","authors":"Anastasia Christodoulou,&nbsp;Jason Kontochristos","doi":"10.1016/j.trip.2026.102126","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trip.2026.102126","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In order to reduce shipping Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, both global and regional regulatory frameworks have been developed by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) and the European Union (EU) respectively. The purpose of this study is to identify the relationship among these regulatory frameworks within the shipping industry. In order to facilitate this comparison, the IMO’s Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) and the EU Emission Trading System (ETS) are analyzed in order to identify similarities, differences and examine if a correlation between the two regulations exists. Voyage data from selected vessels were gathered and analyzed to provide the CII rating of the vessels and EU ETS costs associated with the respective voyages. Building on these cases’ results, a new indicator – the EUA Efficiency Indicator − was developed to estimate the accumulative result of the co-existence of the two regulations and determine the prevailing combined mechanism of global and regional decarbonization initiatives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36621,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 102126"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148476783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Green aviation practices in Singapore and Malaysia: A two-country exploratory policy analysis 新加坡和马来西亚的绿色航空实践:两国探索性政策分析
IF 4.8
Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.trip.2026.102134
Hansha Kistamah
{"title":"Green aviation practices in Singapore and Malaysia: A two-country exploratory policy analysis","authors":"Hansha Kistamah","doi":"10.1016/j.trip.2026.102134","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trip.2026.102134","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study offers a comparative analysis of aviation decarbonisation strategies in Singapore and Malaysia, focusing on their distinct policy approaches to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. These two nations are the only ASEAN members to have launched dedicated national aviation decarbonisation blueprints. Using a Theory of Change (TOC) framework and text mining, the research examines the Singapore Sustainable Air Hub Blueprint and Malaysia Aviation Decarbonisation Blueprint to compare key strategic directions/thematics between the two. Singapore strategically positions itself as a competitive air hub with strong financial commitments and advanced regulations, while Malaysia’s incentive-based approach emphasises capacity-building, stakeholder engagement, and primarily focuses on emissions management. Both countries share goals in air traffic management and airport sustainability, but Singapore shows greater regulatory maturity and innovation. The sentiment analysis reveals future-oriented attitudes around SAF and green infrastructure. The study highlights the critical role of green bonds and carbon trading to finance decarbonisation efforts and stresses the importance of capacity-building and knowledge-sharing to support other developing Southeast Asian countries in adopting best practices demonstrated by both countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36621,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 102134"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148477106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How truck drivers and transport companies co-shape career sustainability: a comparative case study in the Netherlands 卡车司机和运输公司如何共同塑造职业可持续性:荷兰的比较案例研究
IF 4.8
Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.trip.2026.102121
W.G.A. Van Zwol, J.P. De Jong, E. Rusman, B.I.J.M. Van der Heijden
{"title":"How truck drivers and transport companies co-shape career sustainability: a comparative case study in the Netherlands","authors":"W.G.A. Van Zwol,&nbsp;J.P. De Jong,&nbsp;E. Rusman,&nbsp;B.I.J.M. Van der Heijden","doi":"10.1016/j.trip.2026.102121","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trip.2026.102121","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how truck drivers interpret and exercise agency regarding career sustainability, within an occupation marked by spatial constraints, limited upward mobility, and strong job autonomy. Using a comparative case study design, we analyzed seven cases in various transport companies, grounded in 31 interviews with truck drivers, their direct supervisors, HR managers, and directors. Our aim was to understand how agency plays out across organizational and occupational social spaces, and how this agency shapes truck drivers’ career trajectories . Findings reveal an <em>agency paradox</em>: while drivers report a strong sense of agency—expressed through ownership and individuality in their job, this perceived agency is identity-driven and constrained by existing structural organizational boundaries. Supervisors and other managerial actors often expect drivers to demonstrate long-term, life course agency, yet rarely offer needed support or resources. As a result, career development of truck drivers remains limited, reinforcing a culture of “good enough” satisfaction and static occupational roles. Findings highlight the critical role of social context in shaping how agency is interpreted and enacted in transport companies. These insights call for interventions that foster <em>actual</em> rather than perceived agency, including clearer supervisory roles, attention to health-related job demands, and efforts to challenge occupational stigma, and that aim for fostering truck drivers’ career sustainability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36621,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 102121"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148476686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimising airport ground handling operations considering multi-skilled resources 考虑多技能资源,优化机场地勤服务运作
IF 4.8
Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-07-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.trip.2026.102127
Maurice Krauth, Henning Preis, Noah Jalowski, Nikola Bešinović
{"title":"Optimising airport ground handling operations considering multi-skilled resources","authors":"Maurice Krauth,&nbsp;Henning Preis,&nbsp;Noah Jalowski,&nbsp;Nikola Bešinović","doi":"10.1016/j.trip.2026.102127","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trip.2026.102127","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Efficient airport ground handling operations are critical to ensuring timely aircraft handling and maintaining overall airport performance. These operations face tight schedules, resource constraints, and disturbances that can cause delays. Multi-skilled resources enhance flexibility by enabling multiple operations, reducing idle time and improving resilience to disturbances. Tactical optimisation of ground handling operations is investigated, focusing on allocating and scheduling multi-skilled resources. A new optimisation model is proposed to tackle the problem of allocating multi-skilled resources to interdependent ground handling operations under temporal, spatial, and disturbance-related constraints. To address the computational challenges of solving real-world problem instances, a heuristic-based approach is developed, as these instances prove too complex for traditional linear optimisation methods. The proposed approach is tested using a case study based on a full day of operations at Düsseldorf Airport, applied to a simplified layout representation, showing its ability to minimise delays and improve workforce efficiency. The results show significant advantages of incorporating multi-skilled resources, including increased flexibility and reduced delays. For example, with 600 resources and 60% disturbed operations, the higher-skilled resource set reduced total delay by 26% compared with the lower-skilled set. The heuristic solved all tested instances in less than one second, whereas exact optimisation required up to 24,097 s and became intractable for larger instances. These findings demonstrate that tactical scheduling with multi-skilled resources can improve both operational resilience and computational tractability. The results further show that the proposed approach extends existing ground handling planning methods by enabling proactive tactical scheduling under realistic operational constraints.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36621,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 102127"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148476685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A new model for accurately estimating energy consumption of road vehicles 一种准确估算道路车辆能耗的新模型
IF 4.8
Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.trip.2026.102123
Jose R. Lozano-Pinilla, Daniel Alvarez-Mantaras, Pablo Luque-Rodriguez, Marino Linaje, Cristina Vicente-Chicote
{"title":"A new model for accurately estimating energy consumption of road vehicles","authors":"Jose R. Lozano-Pinilla,&nbsp;Daniel Alvarez-Mantaras,&nbsp;Pablo Luque-Rodriguez,&nbsp;Marino Linaje,&nbsp;Cristina Vicente-Chicote","doi":"10.1016/j.trip.2026.102123","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trip.2026.102123","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The main sources of greenhouse gas emissions are fossil fuels, with electricity generation and road transportation contributing most significantly. Enhancing route planning can reduce traffic-related energy consumption and associated emissions. Although widely used route planning maps (e.g., Google Maps) offer shortest, fastest, or eco-friendly routes, they often omit high-impact parameters influencing power demand, including road topology, engine performance, vehicle dimensions, resistance factors, and driving behaviour, limiting their effectiveness for the most energy-efficient routing.</div><div>This paper presents a novel parameterized road vehicle energy consumption model based on the state of the art, expanding on the authors’ previous work by incorporating additional parameters to provide a model that balances a highly accurate estimate of energy consumption with a simple parameter configuration, powertrain calibration and low calculation/computation overhead. The proposed model’s estimations closely match real vehicle onboard computer measurements across diverse vehicle engine types and routes, demonstrating its accuracy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36621,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 102123"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148476687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On-edge artificial intelligence technique for road pavement distress detection 道路路面破损检测的边缘人工智能技术
IF 4.8
Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.trip.2026.102086
Federica Petrongolo, Domenico Profumo, Laura Fiorella, Francesco Artuso, Simon Kanka, Francesco D’Alessandro, Elena Ascari, Luca Fredianelli, Gaetano Licitra
{"title":"On-edge artificial intelligence technique for road pavement distress detection","authors":"Federica Petrongolo,&nbsp;Domenico Profumo,&nbsp;Laura Fiorella,&nbsp;Francesco Artuso,&nbsp;Simon Kanka,&nbsp;Francesco D’Alessandro,&nbsp;Elena Ascari,&nbsp;Luca Fredianelli,&nbsp;Gaetano Licitra","doi":"10.1016/j.trip.2026.102086","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trip.2026.102086","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Road pavement distress significantly affects traffic safety, vehicle durability, and environmental sustainability, making timely maintenance essential. Traditional inspection methods are labor-intensive, intrusive, and costly, while many data-driven approaches rely on expensive sensors or cloud computing, limiting scalability. This study presents a low-cost, non-intrusive monitoring system deployable on ordinary vehicles that performs automated pavement distress detection directly on-board using artificial intelligence. A dedicated image dataset was built by combining public resources with custom acquisitions, and pre-trained deep-learning models were adapted to this task. Three representative architectures were evaluated, including a lightweight real-time detector (YOLOv8n), a transformer-based detector (RT-DETR), and a two-stage detector (Faster R-CNN with a ResNet50 backbone). The recognition system was implemented on an embedded platform: NVIDIA Jetson Orin Nano. YOLOv8n achieved the best balance between accuracy and speed, processing 41 frames per second and achieving an average F1 score of 0.54 across all pavement distress classes. By linking edge artificial intelligence, pavement monitoring, safety, sustainability, and maintenance planning, the proposed framework supports an interdisciplinary approach to road infrastructure management. The results support the feasibility of affordable on-board artificial intelligence for road pavement assessment and its potential to prioritise targeted inspections and maintenance actions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36621,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 102086"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148476694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Calibrated Weibull survival analysis for reconstructing Malaysia’s active road transport fleet and energy demand 校准威布尔生存分析重建马来西亚活跃的公路运输车队和能源需求
IF 4.8
Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-07-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.trip.2026.102131
Abdelhalim Abobker Adam Ahmed, Nora Yusma Mohamed Yusoff, Tan Ee Sann, Azlina binti Mohammad Jais, Hassan Bin Mohamed, Gasim Hyder
{"title":"Calibrated Weibull survival analysis for reconstructing Malaysia’s active road transport fleet and energy demand","authors":"Abdelhalim Abobker Adam Ahmed,&nbsp;Nora Yusma Mohamed Yusoff,&nbsp;Tan Ee Sann,&nbsp;Azlina binti Mohammad Jais,&nbsp;Hassan Bin Mohamed,&nbsp;Gasim Hyder","doi":"10.1016/j.trip.2026.102131","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trip.2026.102131","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Malaysia faces significant environmental and fuel security challenges due to rising vehicle registration from demographic and economic growth. Accurately estimating the active vehicles (<em>N</em>) is crucial for assessing fuel consumption (<em>FC</em>), emissions, and developing effective urban transportation strategies. However, our understanding of <em>N</em> by vehicle classification and annual <em>FC</em> by category remains limited. This study proposes a benchmark-constrained Weibull survival model that calibrates category-specific lifespans and a common shape parameter to observed fleet benchmarks (2017 by category and 2021 total). The calibrated survival functions are integrated with utilization-based average distance travelled (<em>ADT)</em> adjustments to reconcile FC estimates with national energy statistics, thereby jointly addressing fleet reconstruction and energy demand estimation. Applied to seven vehicle classes from 1997 to 2023, the model yields survival scales (<em>T*</em>) of about 12 to 23 years with a common shape parameter (<em>b*</em>) of 2.123 and reproduces observed active fleets, projecting <em>N</em> of 20.27 million in 2017, 21.11 million in 2019, 21.71 million in 2021, and 22.90 million in 2023. A Monte-Carlo perturbation analysis confirms that <em>N</em> remains stable under moderate parameter uncertainty. The estimated <em>N</em> was then used to quantify 2019 FC by fuel type. After <em>ADT</em> adjustments, results align closely with the National Energy Balance (NEB), with petrol and diesel deviating by −0.06% and + 0.03%, respectively. The study provides a transparent and transferable framework for deriving <em>N,</em> age structure, and fuel demand in data-limited contexts, offering empirical basis for transport energy planning, fuel security assessment, and low carbon scenario analysis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36621,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 102131"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148477108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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