探索运输部门气候政策分析中管理不确定性的“多目标稳健决策”

IF 3.8 Q2 TRANSPORTATION
Albin Engholm , Ida Kristoffersson
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究探讨了使用多目标稳健决策(MORDM)来管理交通气候政策分析中的深度不确定性。会议的重点是支持瑞典到2045年实现净零排放目标的政策。进行了一个案例研究分析,展示了如何将MORDM应用于瑞典运输部门的简化政策分析工具。使用多目标进化算法生成候选策略。该算法搜索满足气候目标的政策,同时尽量减少对基于驾驶的可达性的不利影响,并限制2040年参考情景中生物燃料和电力的使用。候选政策的稳健性和脆弱性然后通过在由深度不确定的场景因素和模型关系假设跨越的10,000个场景中对它们进行评估来评估。结果突出了场景中策略目标之间的权衡,以及场景集上各种策略目标的鲁棒性权衡。对于所有政策而言,实现气候目标的主要脆弱性与车辆电气化率有关。然而,MORDM政策并没有明显优于瑞典运输管理局使用相同工具进行的先前研究确定的政策。MORDM提供了一个框架,用于系统评估政策在不同未来不确定性下的稳健性和脆弱性,这是以前没有明确考虑过的。这项研究有助于更好地理解实现稳健的交通气候政策所固有的权衡和依赖关系。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Exploring “Many Objective Robust Decision Making” for managing uncertainty in climate policy analysis for the transport sector
This study explores the use of Many Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM) to manage deep uncertainty in transport climate policy analysis. The focus is on policies supporting Sweden’s ambition to achieve net-zero emissions by 2045. A case study analysis demonstrating how MORDM can be applied to a simplified policy analysis tool for the Swedish transport sector is performed. Candidate policies are generated using a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm. This algorithm searches for policies that meet the climate target while trying to minimize adverse impacts on driving-based accessibility and limiting the use of biofuels and electricity for a reference scenario for 2040. The candidate policies’ robustness and vulnerabilities are then assessed by evaluating them over a set of 10,000 scenarios spanned by deeply uncertain scenario factors and model relationship assumptions. The results highlight tradeoffs among policy objectives within scenarios, as well as tradeoffs in robustness of various policy objectives over the scenario set. For all policies, the main vulnerability in terms of reaching the climate target relates to vehicle electrification rates. However, the MORDM policies do not distinctly outperform policies identified by a previous study by the Swedish Transport Administration applying the same tool. MORDM provides a framework for systematic evaluation of policy robustness and vulnerabilities under varying future uncertainties, something which has not previously been explicitly considered. The study contributes to a better understanding of the trade-offs and dependencies inherent in achieving robust transport climate policies.
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来源期刊
Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives
Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives Engineering-Automotive Engineering
CiteScore
12.90
自引率
0.00%
发文量
185
审稿时长
22 weeks
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