International Affairs and Global Strategy最新文献

{"title":"Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment Inflow to Ethiopia: Time Series Evidence (ARDL Approach)","authors":"Deresse Dalango","doi":"10.7176/iags/85-01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7176/iags/85-01","url":null,"abstract":"In low income country foreign direct investment is taken as the next best alternative source to fill the gap between domestic savings and the required investment for economic growth. While its inflows to Ethiopia are the lowest by a wide margin both in actual quantity and as a proportion of gross national product (GNP). This study deals the empirical relation between FDI inflow and its determinants in Ethiopia by employing Autoregressive distributed lag model for the time period covering from 1981 to 2018. The stationarity properties of the data was detected using Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Phillip–Perron (PP) unit root test and the result indicates all the variables are stationary at level and  first difference calling the effectiveness of ARDL model. The ARDL bound test used to test the existence of long-run link among the variables and the result confirmed that there is long run relationship among FDI and independent variables. The results indicated that  the FDI flows to Ethiopian economy are determined by the degree of trade openness; domestic market size proxied by per capita GDP; domestic bank credit; rate of inflation; human capital and official exchange rate in the long-run and trade openness; rate of inflation and official exchange rate in its short run dynamics. The policy which creates favorable environments for domestic credit institution; predictable official exchange market and uninflated domestic price situation enables to harvest the highest possible expected benefits from FDI inflow. Keywords: FDI, ARDL, Bound test, ECM, Ethiopia DOI: 10.7176/IAGS/85-01 Publication date: August 31 st 2020","PeriodicalId":358479,"journal":{"name":"International Affairs and Global Strategy","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114739118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Realism in Donald Trump's Middle East Policy","authors":"Barjas Habbas Alkumeet, Rakez AL-Aroud, Hani Mefleh O. Hamdon, Rami A. Aljbour","doi":"10.7176/iags/85-02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7176/iags/85-02","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims at understanding the realism theory in Trump's Middle East policy which is manifested in his election program for the presidency, his main promises of his election program and his implementation of these promises on the ground. The study uncovered the psychological factors that affected Trump's foreign policy toward the Middle East, and his economic mentality.  One important constituent of Trump's policy is power. He used power to enhance the position of the United States of America in the world and to support its national interests through proposing the principle “America First”. Moreover, Trump emphasizes on the promotion of USA’s cultural values by promoting democratic values and human rights, and activating political participation through transparent democratic elections in all countries of the world. Even though Tramp focuses on these values in his speeches, they are considered secondary because he believes in America's interests. The study found out that Trump's strategy is based on the notion of power. Trump believes that the protection of other countries like the Gulf States is not free, but they have to pay money. He also insisted on restoring the position of the United States internationally by necessary force, especially in the Middle East. Based on these results, the study recommended that the use of excessive force would lead to a decline in USA’s policy and reputation internationally. Keywords: Middle East ; , Realism “Pay for protection” principle DOI: 10.7176/IAGS/85-02 Publication date: August 31 st 2020","PeriodicalId":358479,"journal":{"name":"International Affairs and Global Strategy","volume":"201 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123029820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Security and Stability of the Gulf Region in Light of Iranian Threats","authors":"Hani Mefleh O. Hamdon, Barjas Habbas Alkumeet, Sayel F. Alserhan","doi":"10.7176/iags/85-03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7176/iags/85-03","url":null,"abstract":"The study aimed to examine the strategies of the Arab Gulf states to address the Iranian threat, and also seeks to identify the extent to which the United States adheres to international law in its policy towards the treatment of weapons of mass destruction in the Gulf region, and also seeks to clarify the risks and potential Iranian threats now and in the future of the Arab Gulf states, which will instill concern and fear among the Arab Gulf states in what will result under the Iranian agreement and the countries (5+1), and a regional neighbor with ambitions in the region in general, and use in the historical and analytical approach, and the use of the methodology, historical and analytical, The study concluded that the continuation of the State of Iran and its unlimited pursuit of nuclear technology, prompts the countries of the region to follow in the footsteps of the Iranians, permeably under the pretext of peaceful civilian purpose, and at the same time we find that an unstable region such as the Arab region and the fear of the danger expected from Iran may be the motive and the real reason behind the pursuit of nuclear technology by others in the region. Keywords: The Arabian Gulf region, Iranian threats. DOI: 10.7176/IAGS/85-03 Publication date: August 31 st 2020","PeriodicalId":358479,"journal":{"name":"International Affairs and Global Strategy","volume":"258 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123065772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Determinants of Exchange Rate in Ethiopia: A Graphical Approach","authors":"Simeneh Almaw","doi":"10.7176/iags/68-01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7176/iags/68-01","url":null,"abstract":"The question of exchange rate determination has been just in the core of academic debates. Even though many exchange rate determination models and their amendments have been developed, scholars/writers still cannot agree on which model best describes behavior of exchange rate. Exchange rate is an essential element of the macro- economic variables that needs to be address in Ethiopia since the Ethiopian birr consistently losing its value and it is necessary to know the factors affecting, in order to analysis the determinate factors, to see which of those possible factors need to be care to control the exchange rate. The objective of this paper was to analysis the relationship among the level of exchange rate in Ethiopia and selected main determinant factors argued in both flow and stock theory of exchange rate determination. The analysis was carried out by detail reviewing the prior researchers work on the area and using correlation and trend analysis for the 18 (2000-2017 G.C) year data obtained from National bank of Ethiopia Quarterly Bulletin.  The result shows that nominal exchange rate of Ethiopia relates positively with government spending, broad money supply, inflation level, economic growth, interest rate and negatively with term of trade balance and current account balance. Moreover, it revealed that, government spending; broad money supply and nominal interest rate are the major determinants than inflation, economic growth term of trade balance, and current account balance.  Indeed, it is concluded as there is some theoretical and empirical deviations on the result of this study, may be due to the effect of some other missed variables (gov’t intervention level, political risk, cultural sentiment. Keywords: Exchange rate, balance of payment theory, Monetary theory, Ethiopia DOI: 10.7176/IAGS/68-01 Publication date: July 31 st 2020","PeriodicalId":358479,"journal":{"name":"International Affairs and Global Strategy","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116938324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Empirical Examination of the Socio-Economic Consequences of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) Outbreak in US, UK, Germany and China: A Structural Equation Modelling Approach","authors":"Titilope Akinsanmi","doi":"10.7176/iags/68-04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7176/iags/68-04","url":null,"abstract":"This paper critically examines the socio-economic impact of the Corona virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), focusing on four developed nations of the world, including China, Germany, UK and US. Survey data was used to analyze the relationship between eight critical socio-economic variables, including economic stability, daily living, mental health, worry about COVID-19, satisfaction with the national government's response to the COVID-19, people's personal finances, satisfaction with fellow citizens' response to the COVID-19, and satisfaction with hospitals' response to the COVID-19. Considering the complexity of the interrelationship between the variables, a structural equation modelling approach was used to assess the impact of the COVID-19 on these variables.  Result shows that the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the daily lives of people. This is also having negative effect on their ability to contribute meaningfully to economic activities, which ultimately affects the economic stability of their nations as a whole. The result from this study also shows the importance of the health sector in nation-building. The health sector has critical roles to play beyond taking care of the sick that have contracted the COVID-19. The health sector is critical in inspiring confidence in the public and causing citizens to be mentally, psychologically and emotionally stable. Mental stability is needed for citizens to carry out their economic activities and contribute meaningfully to economic stability; therefore, the health sector has important role to play during and after the COVID-19 outbreak. The findings from this paper draws the attention of the government as a critical force in resuscitating the economy post COVID-19. The government would have to formulate and implement policies that will inspire confidence as at present, people are somewhat not satisfied with the national government's response to the COVID-19 / coronavirus pandemic, as the level of satisfaction is just average. Keywords: corona virus; COVID-19; disease; pandemic, economic stability; socio-economic; wellbeing, structural-equation. DOI: 10.7176/IAGS/68-04 Publication date: July 31 st 2020","PeriodicalId":358479,"journal":{"name":"International Affairs and Global Strategy","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124407698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Diplomacy in the 21st Century: A Crossroad for ‘Small States’ Amidst Global Power Play","authors":"T. Juma, Amb. Dr. Paul K. Kurgat, Amb. Muthi Gitonga","doi":"10.7176/iags/83-04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7176/iags/83-04","url":null,"abstract":"Whereas diplomacy in international relations still remain to be the use of negotiations and discussions in the daily interactions of states and non – state actors, the former takes precedence without a minimalist approach to what the former brings to diplomacy in the world system. The imperative of diplomacy has spread from its inception to the contemporary pitting its practicality with what the discipline ought to be. In this scenario, the traditionally big states seem to be cognizant that the ‘small states’ have a central place for proper global balance of power and to their success. This robust – dynamic nature of diplomacy creates crossroads of a kind in the 21 st Century. In this matrix, this paper would want to interrogate the central idea by; examining changes in diplomacy through to the 21 st Century, assess the systemic vis a vis practical attributes of diplomacy in global power play of the 21 st Century, and finally to establish possible strategies that ‘small states’ can take in their diplomacy in the 21 st Century. At the end of this discourse, the field of diplomacy will have been enriched by suggestions that diplomacy as a practice and a language among modern states is about what works – this being the reason for its constant change. The study will also underscore that ‘small state diplomacy’ is bound to re-ignite the Westphalian principle of equality of states in the 21 st Century despite size and other dispositional attributes of states. The exigency/flashpoint of the 21 st Century is its proneness to being an open field for practical purposes due to technology explosion. Keywords: Diplomacy, Practical Diplomacy, Small State Diplomacy, Global Power Play, Traditional Diplomacy, Modern Diplomacy, 21 st Century Diplomacy DOI: 10.7176/IAGS/83-04 Publication date: June 30 th 2020","PeriodicalId":358479,"journal":{"name":"International Affairs and Global Strategy","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122723932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Role Indigenous Institutions in Resolving Land Related Conflicts: A Case Study of Two Kebeles in Fogera Woreda , North-West Ethiopia","authors":"B. Assefa","doi":"10.7176/iags/83-01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7176/iags/83-01","url":null,"abstract":"This study sought to study the role of traditional conflict resolution in the context of mediation council among two kebeles of Fogera District. The study also attempted to explore the procedures mediators used during the resolutions. In order to realize these objectives, the study employed qualitatively designed research methods. Observation and case study were employed to generate data used for the analysis. The findings of the study showed that the traditional council of conflict resolutions has played a vital role in dispute resolution. Members of the mediation council exerted their effort to control the course of the mediations which had direct impact on the final decision to be made. Indeed, the cases showed that the council members mostly advocated win-win approach to the problem sustainably.  The study, therefore, suggests some areas of research to be undertaken in the future. Keywords: Conflict, Claimant, Defendant, Resolution, Mediation and Mediator.   DOI: 10.7176/IAGS/83-01 Publication date: June 30 th 2020","PeriodicalId":358479,"journal":{"name":"International Affairs and Global Strategy","volume":"156 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121484031","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Empirical Contributions of International Non-Governmental Organizations (INGOs) to Development: A Reference to World Vision HIV Programmes in Kenya","authors":"J. O. Nyaliech, Magdalene Temko Mangut, Ken Oluoch","doi":"10.7176/iags/83-03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7176/iags/83-03","url":null,"abstract":"This study sought to examine the empirical contributions of INGOs on development in regard to health programmes by World Vision Kenya. Studies show that since 1970s INGOs have strongly been recognized as key Third Sector Actors (TSA) on development globally as part of neo- liberal policy. INGOs emerged in Kenya and became part of the development agenda from early 1990s. HIV/AIDS has remained a major setback to development in many countries with Kenya severely affected. There is limited evidence on the empirical contribution of INGOs to development through tackling HIV problems; hence negatively affecting future funding decisions and development operations of INGOs. This study; assessed the role of INGOs in development though economic empowerment and reduction of HIV prevalence rate with reference to World Vision HIV/AIDS programmes in Tinderet Sub-County. The study used Transnationalism Theory (TT) by Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye (1971) to understand the role of INGOs as transnational actors involved in the process of accelerating development through interdependence and cooperation with States to handle global problems. In this study, mixed method was used involving systematic sampling techniques to select 114 beneficiaries of World Vision and purposively selecting key informant respondents. The data collection methods included use of personal interviews, in- depth interviews, and key informant interviews. Both quantitative and qualitative approaches were used for data analysis. The Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS version 20) was used to run descriptive statistics and merged with qualitative data according to the emerging themes using illustrations from the transcripts. The study found that; World Vision empowered HIV infected and affected persons economically and contributed to reduction of HIV prevalence rate in Tinderet Sub- County. The study concluded that INGOs have a role in development by addressing negative effect on health. Keywords: INGOs,Transnationalism,World Vision,MNCs,TNCs. DOI: 10.7176/IAGS/83-03 Publication date: June 30 th 2020","PeriodicalId":358479,"journal":{"name":"International Affairs and Global Strategy","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125082025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nigerian Transnational Companies and Economic Development across Sub-Saharan Africa","authors":"Obinna U. Muoh, H. U. Obasuyi, Ogechi Ikem","doi":"10.7176/iags/83-05","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7176/iags/83-05","url":null,"abstract":"In examining how the private sector could be gainfully engaged in economic development of African countries, issues such as corporate social responsibility (CSR) framework, multinational enterprise and livelihood option suffice. These are some key elements of a credible policy package that will promote private sector development and boost intra-African trade. Another vital area that needs to be creatively addressed in the capacitation of African enterprises is access to financial resources, which studies suggest is one of the major constraints to private sector development in Africa. As one of the largest economies in Africa, Nigeria has played a leading role in private sector engagement in economic development. A number of Nigerian transnational companies have extended their operations and maintained active presence in some other Africa countries, particularly Sub-Saharan African countries. In addition to their primary business, they have invested heavily in some human development sectors such as health, workforce development and infrastructure—initiatives which not only benefitted them, but create richer economies and enhance human capital development of the host countries. The study is mainly focused on the capital investments of two Nigerian Transnational Companies— Globalcom, a Telecommunication company and the Dangote Group—a manufacturing and trading firm.  The study uses their operations and investments across Sub-Saharan Africa as case studies of Nigeria’s private firms’ contribution to economic development in Africa. The study will look into published statistical records and other materials to generate information on trade and foreign investment within the study area. Keywords : Transnational Companies, Economic Development, Africa DOI: 10.7176/IAGS/83-05 Publication date: June 30 th 2020","PeriodicalId":358479,"journal":{"name":"International Affairs and Global Strategy","volume":"166 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128046009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"International Policies and Conventions on International Rivers and the Rights of Ethiopia to Construct Dam on Nile River: The Case of the Great Renaissance Dam of Ethiopia","authors":"Kassahun Mulatu Lemt","doi":"10.7176/iags/83-02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7176/iags/83-02","url":null,"abstract":"Sustainable transboundary water resources managements are challenged by water governance problem. Equitable and reasonable use of water resources shared by co-basin countries requires reliable common agreements. International water laws such as UN Watercourses (1997), Helsinki Rules (1966) have provided vital legal instruments for effective management and negotiation over international water courses. However, Nile River use and development has challenged for last several decades due to discriminatory bilateral agreements made during colonial periods. The Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) provided to achieve equitable use of Nile River and promote regional socioeconomic development is important step advancing to stop unfair water allocation and claim in the region. The enduring claim over water share and use by Egypt and Sudan referring colonial era agreements are unacceptable because they denied legal and natural rights of the upstream countries as well as opposed international water law. With this respect, Ethiopia has natural and legal right to construct Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The downstream countries (Egypt and Sudan) should ratify CFA and respect international water laws. Therefore, mutually acceptable cooperative commitment amongst the riparian states of the Nile basin is the only necessary condition for promoting sustainable use and development Nile River as well as achieving peace and security in the Nile river basin. Keywords: UN Watercourses, Helsinki Rules, Nile River basin, downstream countries, international water law principles DOI: 10.7176/IAGS/83-02 Publication date: June 30 th 2020","PeriodicalId":358479,"journal":{"name":"International Affairs and Global Strategy","volume":"63 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128855984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}