Revista de Economia del Rosario最新文献

{"title":"Una estimación del costo y cambios en el bienestar de los colombianos con el nuevo Plan de Beneficios en Salud","authors":"Á. Riascos, S. Camelo","doi":"10.12804/REV.ECON.ROSARIO.17.02.2014.04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12804/REV.ECON.ROSARIO.17.02.2014.04","url":null,"abstract":"En este articulo se estima el costo esperado del nuevo Plan de Beneficios en Salud. El analisis parte de la base de que al disminuir las barreras para la reclamacion de servicios que en la actualidad se consideran por fuera del Plan Obligatorio de Salud (POS) -denominados aqui No POS- habra una recomposicion de la demanda por servicios del POS y del No POS. La aproximacion metodologica utilizada consiste en la estimacion de un modelo de eleccion discreta que, con base en las elecciones observadas de reclamaciones y consumo de servicios POS y No POS en el ambito individual, permite estimar las preferencias de los individuos. Este modelo permitira, ademas, hacer un analisis de la variacion en el bienestar de los individuos antes y despues de la reforma. Puesto que el modelo se estima por edad, genero y diagnosis (dentro de un grupo de 29 enfermedades cronicas), es posible estimar los cambios en el bienestar en distintos grupos de riesgo. Los resultados muestran que el aumento esperado en el costo del nuevo plan de beneficios sera a lo sumo del 16%, con respecto al costo actual (POS mas No POS del regimen contributivo), con una desviacion estandar de 7,10%, entre los grupos de riesgo. En 2010 el costo del POS mas No POS del regimen contributivo fue aproximadamente de 12 billones de pesos, con lo que el costo del nuevo plan de beneficios seria a lo sumo 2 billones de pesos con una desviacion estandar de 0,9 billones. Se calcula que el excedente del consumidor aumentara en promedio 5,73 veces, lo que aumentara el gasto y sugiere que el nuevo plan es muy eficaz en generar bienestar por unidad de gasto. Los resultados tambien identifican los grupos de riesgo que mas costaran, que mas aumentaran su bienestar y para los cuales el aumento en bienestar por unidad de gasto adicional es mas alto. Este trabajo es una aproximacion rigurosa a un problema complejo de construccion de un escenario contra factual (posreforma). A diferencia de un modelo de eleccion discreta estandar, el analisis realizado presenta complicaciones, pues no es posible observar las elecciones de todos los individuos frente a las diferentes alternativas (por ejemplo, no se observo la escogencia de servicios No POS de individuos que, bajo el actual sistema, han elegido unicamente servicios POS). El problema se resuelve mediante el ajuste de un modelo econometrico capaz de estimar las elecciones no observadas de los individuos.","PeriodicalId":34973,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Economia del Rosario","volume":"10 1","pages":"299-314"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66169465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Análisis de los factores que influencian el gasto de los turistas culturales: el caso de los visitantes de museos de Medellín","authors":"J. G. Brida, Pablo Daniel Monterubbianesi, Sandra Zapata-Aguirre","doi":"10.12804/REVISTAS.UROSARIO.EDU.CO/ECONOMIA/A.2833","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12804/REVISTAS.UROSARIO.EDU.CO/ECONOMIA/A.2833","url":null,"abstract":"El presente trabajo analiza los determinantes del gasto que realizan los turistas culturales, considerando el caso particular de los visitantes de tres diferentes museos de la ciudad de Medellin, Colombia. Con base en 434 cuestionarios recolectados entre los visitantes de los museos al finalizar su visita durante el periodo junio-octubre 2011 y utilizando un modelo econometrico doble-valla (double-hurdle), el trabajo estima el efecto de distintas variables en el monto y la probabilidad de gasto de los visitantes a un nivel microeconomico. Los resultados muestran que el gasto realizado en diversos rubros de la actividad turistica eleva la probabilidad de gastar, asi como la del monto a gastar en los rubros alojamiento, alimentos y bebidas. Particularmente se observa un incremento proporcional en el conjunto de los componentes principales dentro del gasto turistico, esto es, transporte, alojamiento y alimentacion.","PeriodicalId":34973,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Economia del Rosario","volume":"16 1","pages":"149-170"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66176386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Primera versión de la política de seguridad democrática: se cumplieron los objetivos?","authors":"Gerson Javier Pérez","doi":"10.12804/REVISTAS.UROSARIO.EDU.CO/ECONOMIA/A.2821","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12804/REVISTAS.UROSARIO.EDU.CO/ECONOMIA/A.2821","url":null,"abstract":"ResumenExplotando las variaciones espaciales y temporales en el numero de bienes incautados a las organizaciones criminales, se estiman modelos de efectos fijos regionales del aumento en el numerode propiedades confiscadas sobre las principales tasas de crimen. En Colombia, desde finales de 2002 las estrategias de seguridad cambiaron, y como resultado, los efectos sobre los delitos resultaron significativos y negativos. Por un lado hubo una reduccion en los delitos cometidos por el crimen organizado, incluyendo la guerrilla, los paramilitares y los narcotraficantes, pero por el otro, los delitos cometidos por criminales comunes no parecen haberse reducido en la misma magnitud.First version of the politica de seguridad democratica:were the objectives accomplished?Exploiting spatial and temporal variations in the number of seizures from criminal organizations,I estimate regional fixed effects models of the increase in the number of properties confiscated on the main crime rates. Since 2002 security strategies changed, and the resulting effects on crime are mostly large, negative and significant. On the one hand, there was a clear reduction in crimes commonly committed by criminal organizations, including guerrillas, paramilitaries and drug traffikers, but on the other, no significant effects were found on crimes committed by common criminals in the urban areas.","PeriodicalId":34973,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Economia del Rosario","volume":"15 1","pages":"179-213"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66176576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How do inequality affect tax morale in Latin America and Caribbean","authors":"Mariana Gerstenblüth, Natalia Melgar, Juan Pablo Pagano, Máximo Rossi","doi":"10.12804/REVISTAS.UROSARIO.EDU.CO/ECONOMIA/A.2819","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12804/REVISTAS.UROSARIO.EDU.CO/ECONOMIA/A.2819","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractLatin America is well known as an inequitable region. As it is recognized, inequality and corruption perception weaken the way that political institutions works and the democratic system. Focusing on Latin American and Caribbean countries, this paper analyzes what are the elements shaping tax morale. In particular, how the context influences ethical grounds decisions such as the predisposition to pay taxes is analyzed, using the survey carried out in 2005 by Latinobarometro. The objective is to analyze how country performance determines tax morale. To do so, four probit models are estimated using Gini index, Transparency International Corruption Perception Index and Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPpc) as explanatory variables. As expected we found that some socio-demographic variables play a relevant role. Interestingly, we also found that, in this attitude, LAC countries do not register a gender bias. However, those are not our main contributions to the literature on the field. The most important results are linked to: 1) the level matters, GDPpc increases the probability of people having tax morale, 2) moreover, income distribution also influence on tax morale but in opposite direction and 3) corruption perception also reduces tax morale. Those results show that the quality of institutions matters and therefore, the way that democracy works play a relevant role.ResumenComo afecta la desigualdad la moral fiscal en Latinoamerica y el CaribeLa literatura previa muestra que los mas ricos tienen una probabilidad mayor de involucrarse en causas medioambientales. El aporte de este trabajo es analizar si hay un efecto conjunto entre el ingreso subjetivo y el desempeno del pais de residencia sobre esta probabilidad. Para ello, se utiliza la quinta ola de la Encuesta Mundial de Valores. Se muestra que el ingreso subjetivo y las caracteristicas del pais de residencia son determinantes claves de estas actitudes asi como lo es el efecto-interaccion entre estas variables. Por lo tanto, las medidas que afectan las caracteristicas de los paises podrian tener un impacto relevante en la disposicion de los individuos a participar.","PeriodicalId":34973,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Economia del Rosario","volume":"16 1","pages":"123-135"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66176353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Works Councils: An Agency Perspective","authors":"J. Gallego","doi":"10.12804/REV.ECON.ROSARIO.17.01.2014.02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12804/REV.ECON.ROSARIO.17.01.2014.02","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the role of works councils in a simple agency framework in which works councils are supposed to monitor manager's information on behalf of the workforce, but they are independent agents who might pursue their private interest. First, we consider that workers can incentivize works councils through contingent monetary payments. In order to deter collusion, workers must pay higher compensations in states of nature where they can be expropriated by potential coalitions among works councils and management. Collusion makes contingent payments costly and reduces workers' payoffs. Second, when elections are used to align works councils' interest only well compensated representatives would face an inter-temporal trade-off between accepting management's transfers at first period and losing rents at the second period. Elections increase the cost of entering on collusive behaviour with management and works councils will try to behave on the employees' interest.","PeriodicalId":34973,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Economia del Rosario","volume":"17 1","pages":"33-62"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66169179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Índice de precios espacial para la vivienda urbana en Colombia: una aplicación con métodos de emparejamiento","authors":"L. Galvis, Bladimir Carrillo.","doi":"10.12804/REVISTAS.UROSARIO.EDU.CO/ECONOMIA/A.2829","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12804/REVISTAS.UROSARIO.EDU.CO/ECONOMIA/A.2829","url":null,"abstract":"La formulacion de un indice que cuantifique los diferenciales de precios de vivienda entre regioneses relevante para aspectos economicos tales como la asignacion del gasto social habitacional.Desafortunadamente, en el contexto colombiano son escasos los estudios que se trazantal objetivo. Este documento se propone llenar vacios en ese sentido. Para este efecto se empleael metodo de emparejamiento PSM (Propensity Score Matching), con el que se busca establecercomparaciones mas homogeneas entre los inmuebles de cada ciudad al evaluar el diferencial deprecios. Se realizan dos ejercicios adicionales, que consisten en: (i) comparar las viviendas segunrangos de precios (bajo, medio y alto) entre las ciudades, empleando regresiones hedonicas porcuantiles, y (ii) examinar como cambia la diferencia promedio de precios cuando varia la canastade caracteristicas de la unidad habitacional. Entre los principales resultados se encuentra queBogota tiene el precio mas alto de vivienda estandar, seguida de Cartagena y Villavicencio. Enterminos practicos, las brechas de precios halladas son importantes y alcanzan cifras cercanas al30%. Dichas brechas no son homogeneas entre diferentes clases de vivienda estandar, ni entrerangos del precio.","PeriodicalId":34973,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Economia del Rosario","volume":"16 1","pages":"25-59"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66176705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"El tamaño de las empresas y la transmisión de la política monetaria en Colombia: una aplicación con la encuesta mensual de expectativas económicas","authors":"Héctor Zárate, Norberto Rodríguez, Margarita Marín","doi":"10.32468/BE.721","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32468/BE.721","url":null,"abstract":"En este articulo se incorpora informacion obtenida de las encuestas de expectativas economicasrealizadas a los empresarios para comprobar si el efecto de la politica monetaria difiere de acuerdocon el tamano de las empresas. El analisis se basa en las funciones impulso - respuesta, calculadascon la metodologia de Vectores Autorregresivos con cambio de regimen MS-BVAR. Los resultadossugieren que ante un choque en la tasa de interes de politica, el clima de los negocios tanto deempresas grandes como pequenas responde en forma positiva en regimen de expansion, mientrasen periodos de contraccion se observan respuestas negativas y mas pronunciadas. Asi, lasempresas grandes son mas sensibles a los choques de tasas de interes, probablemente como consecuenciadel bajo grado de profundizacion financiera.","PeriodicalId":34973,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Economia del Rosario","volume":"16 1","pages":"61-87"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69674037","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Involvement in environmental causes, does the joint effect between subjective income and the performance of the country matter?","authors":"Natalia Melgar, Máximo Rossi","doi":"10.12804/REVISTAS.UROSARIO.EDU.CO/ECONOMIA/A.2162","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12804/REVISTAS.UROSARIO.EDU.CO/ECONOMIA/A.2162","url":null,"abstract":"Previous research has shown that richer people are more likely to engage in an environmentalcause. We extend it by considering the joint effect between subjective income and a set of macroeconomicvariables. For doing so, we employ the fifth wave of the World Values Survey (WVS).This study provides clear evidence that even when both factors matter, people´s attitudes cruciallydepend on the interaction effect. Hence, those measures that affect the characteristics of thecountry would also change the disposition to be involved.","PeriodicalId":34973,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Economia del Rosario","volume":"15 1","pages":"1-18"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66176061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Confidence sets for asset correlations in portfolio credit risk","authors":"Carlos Castro","doi":"10.12804/REVISTAS.UROSARIO.EDU.CO/ECONOMIA/A.2164","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12804/REVISTAS.UROSARIO.EDU.CO/ECONOMIA/A.2164","url":null,"abstract":"Asset correlations are of critical importance in quantifying portfolio credit risk and economic capitalin financial institutions. Estimation of asset correlation with rating transition data has focusedon the point estimation of the correlation without giving any consideration to the uncertaintyaround these point estimates. In this article we use Bayesian methods to estimate a dynamicfactor model for default risk using rating data (McNeil et al., 2005; McNeil and Wendin, 2007).Bayesian methods allow us to formally incorporate human judgement in the estimation of assetcorrelation, through the prior distribution and fully characterize a confidence set for the correlations.Results indicate: i) a two factor model rather than the one factor model, as proposed bythe Basel II framework, better represents the historical default data. ii) importance of unobservedfactors in this type of models is reinforced and point out that the levels of the implied asset correlationscritically depend on the latent state variable used to capture the dynamics of default,as well as other assumptions on the statistical model. iii) the posterior distributions of the assetcorrelations show that the Basel recommended bounds, for this parameter, undermine the levelof systemic risk.","PeriodicalId":34973,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Economia del Rosario","volume":"15 1","pages":"19-58"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66176108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"La composición sectorial de la inversión y su implicaciones en la medición de los servicios del capital y el crecimiento en Colombia","authors":"Juan Ricardo Perilla, G. Piraquive","doi":"10.12804/REVISTAS.UROSARIO.EDU.CO/ECONOMIA/A.2166","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12804/REVISTAS.UROSARIO.EDU.CO/ECONOMIA/A.2166","url":null,"abstract":"Resumen:Se discuten algunos criterios de medicion de la inversion sectorial, la medicion de los serviciosdel capital y la manera como influye esta composicion y medicion en el crecimiento de la produccionde los sectores mas representativos de la economia colombiana. El enfoque prioriza ladiferenciacion entre el acervo del capital fisico y los servicios que este presta a la produccion. Laslimitaciones de informacion primaria, ampliamente senaladas en el documento, implican que lasprincipales afirmaciones son mas hipoteticas que indicativas o descriptivas y se establecen paramotivar el estudio de los temas sectoriales en coherencia con los agregados de la economia.Abstract:This is mainly a discussant paper on measurement criteria upon sector´s investment and capitalservices and the way these composition and measurement issues come to have an impact ongrowth figures for some major sectors of the Colombian economy. The main focus is on distinctionmatters regarding the measurement of capital stock and capital services in the productionprocess. The availability of appropriate data, widely discussed throughout the document, impliesthat major affirmations are more hypothetic than indicative or descriptive in style. Moststatements are established as a motivation device for studies on sector´s activities with a focus onconsistency with aggregate figures.","PeriodicalId":34973,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Economia del Rosario","volume":"15 1","pages":"59-122"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66176202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}